New polling could potentially serve as a major warning sign for Democrats who have, according to the poll, ‘lost ground among some of their traditionally stronger support groups’ including Black and Hispanic voters where their traditional advantage with those voters is ‘at record lows.’
A Gallup poll released Wednesday shows that while Democrats still hold a significant advantage over Republicans with Black voters, their 47-point lead is the ‘smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.’
When asked what political party they identify with, 19% of Black adults said Republican or lean Republican, compared to 66% who said Democrat or lean Democrat.
Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones and Lydia Saad explained that most of the decline in Black voters calling themselves Democrat has been in the last few years.
‘Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020,’ Gallup said. ‘At that time, 77% of Black adults favored the Democrats and 11% the Republicans, so the 2023 findings represent an 11-point decrease in Democratic affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation.’
Things aren’t much better for Democrats when it comes to Hispanic adults, where Gallup shows their current 12-point advantage over Republicans is the lowest since 2011.
Polling also shows that young adults are supporting Democrats at their lowest level in almost two decades.
‘By 2010, young adults were the only age category giving the Democrats an edge, and their Democratic orientation remained strong until it fell to just eight points in 2023, the slimmest since 2005,’ Gallup explained.
Overall, Gallup concluded in its ‘bottom line’ that the data should be ‘especially concerning’ for Democrats.
‘The data show the Democratic Party retaining advantages among people of color and young adults, but in 2023 it was in a weaker position among these groups than at any point in the past quarter century,’ Gallup wrote. ‘Democrats’ reduced support among Black and Hispanic adults should be especially concerning for the party, given Republicans’ continued strength among White adults, who remain the majority of the electorate.’
The Gallup polling is in line with several other polls in recent months that have suggested Democrats are hemorrhaging support from minority communities they have historically depended on.
According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released in January, Biden’s support among Black voters has fallen to just 63%, down from the 92% that Pew Research Center data shows he won in the 2020 presidential election. His support among Hispanic voters is down to 34% from 59%.
Fox News polling last month also showed that Biden’s support among the Black community has shrunk in recent years and showed his approval slid 25% since 2021. He once stood at 87% approval, but that number declined to 62% in 2023.
‘Biden cannot afford to lose any piece of his base, especially Black and Hispanic voters,’ GOP strategist Alex Conant, founding partner at Firehouse Strategies, told Fox News Digital in response to the Gallup poll. ‘Strong support among Black voters is how he won the nomination in 2016 and put him over the top in several states in the general.
‘Everything swing state becomes significantly harder for Biden to win if there’s low turnout among Black or Hispanic voters. And if a lot of them vote for Trump, then it’s game over for Biden.’
Fox News Digital’s Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report.
