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Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist Karol Nawrocki will compete in a second round of the presidential election in Poland on June 1, the electoral commission said based on votes from 100% of electoral districts.

Trzaskowski, from the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), got 31.36% of votes in the first round of presidential election on Sunday. The candidate backed by nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), Karol Nawrocki, got 29.54% of votes. Earlier late polls showed Trzaskowski leading in the electoral race.

Both candidates started preparing for the second round early on Monday, with Trzaskowski meeting voters in Warsaw and Nawrocki in Gdansk.

“We need to talk to everyone, arguments are the most important. I am glad that many young people went to vote, but the big challenge is to convince them to vote for me,” Trzaskowski told reporters.

Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun together accounted for more than 21% of the vote, a historically high percentage, winning widespread support from young voters. It is not clear, however, who their votes will go to in the second round.

Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, said he will fight for the votes the people on both sides of the political landscape.

“My social agenda and the fact that I will be the guardian of the social achievements of the Law and Justice government and the Solidarity (trade union) make it an offer also for left-wing, socially sensitive circles,” he said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Portugal’s ruling center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won a snap parliamentary election on Sunday but again fell short of the majority needed to end a long period of instability as the far-right Chega gained a record share of the vote.

Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said the election result was a vote of confidence in his party, but with votes from abroad still to be counted Chega could supplant the center-left Socialists as the main opposition party, ending almost 40 years of dominance by the country’s two major parties.

Continued political instability could delay structural reforms and major projects in Portugal, including lithium mining in the north, and potentially compromise the efficient deployment of EU funds and the long-delayed privatization of TAP airline.

The election, the third in as many years, was called one year into an AD minority government’s term after Montenegro failed to win a vote of confidence in March when the opposition questioned his integrity over dealings of his family’s consultancy firm. He has denied any wrongdoing.

Electoral data showed the AD making gains, winning 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, nine more than in the previous election.

Montenegro, who has ruled out any deal with Chega, said he expected to form a minority government.

“The Portuguese don’t want any more snap elections, they want a four-year legislature,” Montenegro said as his supporters chanted “Let Luis work,” his campaign slogan.

Chega gained 8 seats for a total of 58, winning a record 22.6% of the vote, while voters appeared to punish the Socialists for their role in bringing down Montenegro’s government.

They fell to 58 seats from 78, prompting Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos to say he would step down.

Chega leader Andre Ventura, who was hospitalized during the campaign after collapsing on stage with an esophageal spasm, said his party had “swept the left block off the map in style.”

“There are moments in life during which God says, just stop a little bit,” he told a crowd of jubilant supporters. “This time I am not going to listen. I am not going to stop until I become the prime minister of Portugal.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Sector Rotation Shakeup: Industrials Take the Lead

Another week of significant movement in the sector landscape has reshaped the playing field. The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a picture of shifting dynamics, with some surprising developments in sector leadership. Let’s dive into the details and see what’s happening under the hood.

  1. (6) Industrials – (XLI)*
  2. (4) Financials – (XLF)*
  3. (1) Utilities – (XLU)*
  4. (2) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  5. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  6. (8) Technology – (XLK)*
  7. (5) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  8. (9) Materials – (XLB)*
  9. (11) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (10) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  11. (7) Healthcare – (XLV)*

Weekly RRG

On the weekly RRG, Utilities and Consumer Staples maintain their high positions on the RS-Ratio scale. However, there are signs of waning momentum. Staples has rolled over within the leading quadrant and is now showing a negative heading. Utilities, while still strong, are losing some of their relative momentum.

Financials and Communication Services are hanging on in the weakening quadrant, but their tails are relatively short — indicating potential for a quick turnaround.

The show’s star, Industrials, has made a beeline for the leading quadrant, climbing on the RS-Ratio scale while maintaining a positive RRG heading.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we get a more granular view. Utilities, Staples, and Financials are found in the lagging quadrant, but Staples and Utilities are showing signs of life, turning back up towards the improving quadrant.

Financials, meanwhile, are hugging the benchmark.

The daily chart confirms Industrials’ strength, mirroring its weekly performance.

Communication Services, however, is showing some worrying signs — it’s dropped into the weakening quadrant on the daily RRG, confirming its vulnerable position on the weekly chart.

Industrials

XLI flexes its muscles, pushing against overhead resistance around the $144 mark.

A break above this level could trigger a further acceleration in price.

The relative strength line has already broken out of its consolidation pattern, propelling both RRG lines above 100 and driving the XLI tail deeper into the leading quadrant.

Financials

The financial sector continues its upward trajectory, trading above its previous high and closing in on the all-time high of around $53.

Like Industrials, a break above this resistance could spark a new leg up.

The RS line is moving sideways within its rising channel, causing the RRG lines to flatten—something to watch.

Utilities

XLU has finally broken through its overhead resistance, approaching its all-time high around $83.

After months of pushing against the $80 level, this breakout is a clear sign of strength.

The RS line is still grappling with its own resistance, but the RS-Ratio line continues its gradual ascent.

Communication Services

While XLC is moving higher on the price chart, its relative strength is lagging.

The sideways movement in the RS line is causing both RRG lines to move lower, with the RS-Momentum line already below 100.

This sector is rapidly approaching the lagging quadrant on the daily RRG—definitely one to watch for potential risks.

Consumer Staples

XLP is approaching the upper boundary of its trading range ($83-$85), where it is running into resistance. The inability to push higher while the market is moving up is causing relative strength to falter.

The recent strength has pushed both RRG lines well above 100, but the current loss of relative strength is now causing the RRG-Lines to roll over.

The tail is still comfortably within the leading quadrant, but this loss of momentum could signal a potential setback.

Portfolio Performance

The model portfolio’s defensive positioning has led to some underperformance relative to SPY, with the gap now just under 6%.

However, the model is sticking to its guns, maintaining a defensive stance with Staples and Utilities firmly in the top five.

It’s worth noting that Healthcare has now definitively dropped out of the top ranks. Nevertheless, with Staples and Utilities holding firm, and Technology and Consumer Discretionary still in the bottom half, the overall positioning remains cautious.

These are the periods when patience is key. We need to let the model do its work and wait for new, meaningful relative trends to emerge. It’s not always comfortable to endure underperformance, but it’s often necessary to capture longer-term outperformance.

#StayAlert, –Julius



White Cliff Minerals Limited (“WCN” or the “Company”) (ASX: WCN; OTCQB: WCMLF) is pleased to announce it has received firm commitments to raise approximately A$14.4m (before costs) through the issue of 384,615,398 new, fully paid ordinary shares in the Company. Utilising the “flow-through shares” provisions under Canadian tax law 307,692,321 shares will be issued at an issue price of A$0.0403 per share representing a 38.9% premium to WCN’s last trading price of A$0.029 (14 May 2025) for a total of A$12.40m (Flow-Through). Additionally, the Company has received firm commitments to raise $2 million (before costs) through a share placement to new and existing sophisticated and professional investors (Placement). 76,923,077 shares will be issued under the Placement at $0.026 per share, being a 10.3% discount to the Company’s last closing price before trading halt.

  • Capital raise cornerstoned by the Company’s Strategic Advisor, John Hancock and his private family office, Astrotricha Capital SEZC.
  • The capital raise was significantly oversubscribed and the Company received investment from a number of new Australian, United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Singaporean financial institutions as well as existing institutional and sophisticated shareholders
  • Funds will be used to expand and accelerate drilling and exploration activities at the Company’s Rae Copper Project with drilling set to recommence from mid-July
  • Drilling activities will include both reverse circulation and diamond drilling, providing the Company flexibility in its targeting approach
  • Aerial and downhole geophysics are to be undertaken to further refine drill targets across the Rae Copper Project
  • Following encouraging visual results, the Company expects to update shareholders on further assays results for holes 5, 6 and 7 at Danvers, expected to be received over the coming weeks

”The successful completion of this capital raise is a testament to the quality of our Rae Copper Project and the confidence that investors have in our exploration strategy. The ability to access the less dilutive flow through funds at a circa 40% premium is a huge advantage and value accretive for shareholders. Further, John Hancock and his Astrotricha Capital Family Office cornerstone position in the raise, along with the support of other high net worth investors introduced by Astrotricha, reflects their shared vison for the future of WCN and underpins the Company’s development plans for the Rae Copper Project.

The outlook for copper prices remains robust and the Company is poised to ramp up exploration efforts as we capitalise on its strong financial position following this raise, in addition to the ongoing conversion of WCNO options. Following recent high-grade results, this upcoming drilling at Danvers will lay the foundation for a maiden exploration target at the project over the coming period. We are very excited about the potential to delineate a material resource around the immediate drilling area at Danvers and to potentially encompass additional deposits along the regional 7km + strike.

In parallel, drilling will commence at the major sedimentary hosted copper target at Hulk. The pre collars that we have completed at Hulk sit only about 50mtrs above the target horizon and with diamond rigs planned to arrive in the coming months at which time we plan to drill all project areas and deliver on the potential for an additional major copper discovery at our Rae Project.”

Troy Whittaker – Managing Director

“Starting out as a Strategic Advisor to WCN with an initial invested stake, I have now become the Company’s largest shareholder and am pleased to see another well executed and strongly supported capital raise at a premium to the share price. The WCN focus has been on minimising existing shareholder dilution whilst attracting strategic investor capital to accelerate exploration and at the same time, securing the Company’s financial position for the longer term. There is now global investor interest in WCN’s prospects and I look forward to further upcoming drill results.”

John Hancock – Strategic Advisor to WCN

Click here for the full ASX Release

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Astute Metals NL (ASX: ASE) (“ASE”, “Astute” or “the Company”) is pleased to report assay results from the first of six holes completed as part of its highly successful April 2025 diamond drilling campaign at the 100%-owned Red Mountain Lithium Project in Nevada, USA. Drill-hole RMDD003 has returned three high- grade intersections of lithium mineralisation:

  • 32.4m @ 3,260ppm Li / 1.74% Lithium Carbonate Equivalent1 (LCE) from 57.2m, including an internal high-grade zone grading 8.6m @ 5,060ppm Li / 2.69% LCE from 67.7m;
  • 13.8m @ 1,330ppm Li / 0.71% LCE from 39.6m; and
  • 23.3m @ 1,610ppm Li / 0.86% LCE from 94.4m to End-of-hole.

Key Highlights

  • Outstanding lithium mineralisation returned in assays for diamond drill-hole RMDD003, which intersected:
    • 32.4m @ 3,260ppm Li from 57.2m, including 8.6m of ultra high-grade mineralisation @ 5,060ppm Li from 67.7m;
    • 13.8m @ 1,330ppm Li from 39.6m; and
    • 23.3m @ 1,610ppm Li from 94.4m to end-of-hole
  • RMDD003 marks the highest-grade lithium intercept recorded to date at Red Mountain.
  • Mineralisation successfully extended 630m north of previous northernmost intersection in hole RMDD002.
  • Hole ends in lithium, with mineralisation remaining open down-dip to the east and along strike to the north.
  • Assays pending from five other recently completed drill- holes.

To hear CEO Matt Healy discuss this ASX Release click here

The thick zones of lithium mineralisation encountered in the northernmost drill-hole at Red Mountain highlight the increasing scale of the project, with strong lithium mineralisation now intersected in all drill- holes spanning a north-south strike extent of over 5.6km and surface sample geochemistry indicating further potential to the north, south and west of the current drilled extents7, 9 (Figure 3).

Of particular significance in hole RMDD003 is the high-grade nature of the mineralisation. The nearest drill-hole is RMDD002, which intersected 32.1m @ 2,050ppm within a broader 86.9m intersection at 1,470ppm Li from 18.3m. The high-grade zone in RMDD002 has persisted north to RMDD003, and increased in grade significantly to over 3,000ppm lithium.

Assays are pending for the other five holes drilled as part of the April diamond drilling campaign.

Astute Chairman, Tony Leibowitz, said:

“Our 2025 exploration campaign is off to a fantastic start, with exceptional assays returned for the first step-out diamond hole, RMDD003. We are impressed by the thickness and grade of the mineralisation, with the high-grade intercept returned from this hole showing that the previously identified high-grade zone extends for a considerable distance to the north.

“This provides further indication that Red Mountain is unfolding as a lithium discovery of significance in North America. With mineralisation now defined by drilling over a strike length of almost 6 kilometres, we are looking forward to seeing what the remaining drill-holes will deliver. The information obtained from this round of drilling should put us on a clear trajectory to advance Red Mountain towards a maiden JORC Mineral Resource Estimate later this year.”

Background

Located in central-eastern Nevada (Figure 4) adjacent to the Grand Army of the Republic Highway (Route 6), which links the regional mining towns of Ely and Tonopah, the Red Mountain Project was staked by Astute in August 2023.

The Project area has broad mapped tertiary lacustrine (lake) sedimentary rocks known locally as the Horse Camp Formation2. Elsewhere in the state of Nevada, equivalent rocks host large lithium deposits (see Figure 4) such as Lithium Americas’ (NYSE: LAC) 62.1Mt LCE Thacker Pass Project3, American Battery Technology Corporation’s (OTCMKTS: ABML) 15.8Mt LCE Tonopah Flats deposit4 and American Lithium (TSX.V: LI) 9.79Mt LCE TLC Lithium Project5.

Astute has completed substantial surface sampling campaigns at Red Mountain, which indicate widespread lithium anomalism in soils and confirmed lithium mineralisation in bedrock with some exceptional grades of up to 4,150ppm Li2,8 (Figure 3).

A total of 13 RC and diamond drill holes have been drilled at the project for a combined 1,944m, prior to this current drilling program. These campaigns were highly successful, intersecting strong lithium mineralisation in every hole9.

Scoping leachability testwork on mineralised material from Red Mountain indicates high leachability of lithium of up to 98%, varying with temperature, acid strength and leaching duration, and proof of concept beneficiation test-work has indicated the potential to upgrade the Red Mountain mineralisation10,11.

Results

Hole RMDD003 successfully intersected three zones of lithium mineralised clay-bearing mudstones and sandstone, separated by narrow zones of unmineralised rocks (Figure 1). The intersections are as follows:

  • 13.8m @ 1,330ppm Li / 0.71% LCE from 39.6m to 53.4m;
  • 32.4m @ 3,260ppm Li / 1.74% LCE from 57.2m to 89.6m; and
  • 23.3m @ 1,610ppm Li / 0.86% LCE from 94.4m to End-of-hole (117.7m).

The best grades were developed in the most clay-rich zones (Figure 2). An internal very high-grade zone of 8.6m returned a grade of 5,060ppm Li, with a maximum single sample grade of 5,660ppm Li from 69.2-70.7m (227-232ft), which is the drill sample with the highest lithium grade achieved to date at the project.

Click here for the full ASX Release

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Leo XIV, the first ever American pope, will be formally inaugurated as the 267th pontiff Sunday during a special Mass in St. Peter’s Square attended by world leaders, royalty, and thousands of believers.

The May 18 service will be rich in symbolism and include the formal bestowing on Leo of the symbols of office including the pallium – a lamb’s wool vestment symbolizing his pastoral care for the church and role as shepherd to his flock – and the fisherman’s ring, which symbolizes the Pope’s authority as the successor of St. Peter, a fisherman by trade and who Catholics hold to be the first pope.

Among those expected to attend Sunday’s two-hour long liturgy include US Vice-President JD Vance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the President of Peru, Dina Boluarte, the leader of the country where Pope Leo served as both a missionary and a bishop for several decades. Countries from across the globe will be represented, with the Vatican hosting delegates from more than 150 nations.

The 69-year-old Chicago-born pontiff is expected to greet delegations from different countries after his inauguration Sunday, a Vatican spokesman said.

Although Leo was elected as pope on May 8, the official beginning of his papacy begins on May 18, with his first general audience with the public scheduled for May 21.

In his first Mass as pontiff on May 9, Leo called on the clergy to show humility, has made repeated appeals for peace and explained his choice of name. Later in the week, he used his first Vatican address since his election to call for peace in Ukraine and Gaza, saying “Never again war!”

The first American pope, who is an avid tennis player, has also met with journalists and men’s tennis number one seed, Jannik Sinner.

Symbols of office

On Sunday morning , Pope Leo will use the popemobile for the first time and greet people in St Peter’s Square before heading inside the basilica for the Mass.

He will be joined by leaders of Eastern Orthodox churches for the first part of the service as he descends to pray at the tomb of St.Peter. The pallium, the ring and a book of the gospels will then be taken by two members of the clergy towards the altar in the square.

The scripture readings at the Mass will largely focus on the figure of St. Peter and the central passage from John’s Gospel, a text seen as foundational to the pope’s ministry as St. Peter’s successor.

Following this reading, three cardinals will then present the pope with the symbols of office.

Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, who announced the news that Leo had been elected, will place the pallium over the new pontiff. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, will say a special prayer. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines will present Leo with the signet “ring of the fisherman,” which was traditionally used to seal official documents but is now ceremonial.

The Vatican has released details of the ring, which has an image of St. Peter on the outside band, with “Leo XIV” and the pope’s coat of arms engraved on the inside.

All bishops wear rings to show their bond to the local church they lead and the ring of the Pope, as Bishop of Rome, symbolises his “betrothal” to the entire church.

After receiving the symbols of office, representatives of ordinary Catholics from across the world will show their “obedience” to the pope, something that in the past was done by cardinals. The decision to include non-cardinals in this part of the service shows the pope’s commitment to a church which seeks to deepen the involvement of Catholics who are not part of the hierarchy. The inclusion of ordinary Catholics in the ceremony is also a nod to Leo’s intent to continue reforms started by his predecessor, Pope Francis.

During the Mass, Pope Leo will also give a homily, where he will likely set out some of the key themes of his pontificate, something he would have spent time considering carefully.

After the Mass ends, the pope will lead the Regina Caeli, or “Queen of Heaven” prayer before meeting the international delegations inside the basilica.

Papal inauguration ceremonies have changed over the years. For centuries it also involved a “coronation,” which included placing the papal tiara on the new pope’s head. The last papal “coronation” was of Paul VI in 1963. He however, decided to sell the tiara and give the proceeds to charity. Catholics in the US bought that tiara, which is now on display at the Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception in Washington, D.C.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russia has battered Ukraine overnight with its largest drone attack since the war began, Ukraine’s military said Sunday, as Moscow intensified its military assault despite holding direct peace talks with Kyiv Friday.

Russia launched 273 Shahed drones in one night, the Ukrainian Air Force said, predominantly targeting the central Kyiv region.

A 28-year-old woman was killed, and three others including a four-year-old child were injured, according to Mykola Kalashnik, the governor of the Kyiv region.

Ruslan Stefanchuk, the head of Ukraine’s parliament, said in a social media post Sunday: “The air raid alarm lasted almost nine hours. This is what Putin’s ‘sincere desire for peace’ looks like.”

The attack destroyed residential buildings, damaged a high-rise and set garages on fire, Stefanchuk wrote, adding: “This is terror in its purest form.”

The “massive attack” caused a number of fires, Ukraine’s emergency services also said, adding that 55 rescue workers had been deployed.

Elsewhere, Russian shelling killed one person and injured eight in the Donetsk region Saturday, according to the head of the Donetsk regional military administration, Vadym Filashkin. Russian drones also targeted the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, regional military chiefs said.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have downed 75 Ukrainian drones in the past 24 hours, TASS, a Russian state news agency, reported Sunday, citing Russia’s defense ministry.

The latest assault comes after a Russian drone attack on a bus in Ukraine’s northeastern region of Sumy killed at least nine people and injured seven Saturday, just hours after the two countries met for the first direct peace talks since the early weeks of Russia’s 2022 invasion.

The negotiations in Turkey failed to produce a major breakthrough. The two countries discussed a possible meeting between their presidents, a ceasefire and agreed a prisoner swap.

The talks capped days of back-and-forth: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called for the face-to-face meeting but did not attend himself, instead sending a junior delegation after rejecting Ukraine’s proposal of a 30-day ceasefire.

Donald Trump is set to speak with Putin Monday on ending the Ukraine war, the US president announced Saturday. Trump has previously said he doesn’t think there will be a significant breakthrough on peace talks until he speaks with Putin directly.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed Saturday that preparations were underway for a phone conversation between the two leaders.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Police in the UK have charged three Iranian nationals with national security offenses following a counter-terror investigation.

The three men, arrested on Saturday, 3 May, have been charged with “engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service,” namely Iran, between 14 August 2024 and 16 February 2025, London’s Metropolitan Police said in a statement Saturday.

The men, aged between 39 and 55, have been named by police as Mostafa Sepahvand, Farhad Javadi Manesh, and Shapoor Qalehali Khani Noori.

They have been charged with engaging in surveillance and reconnaissance, with one man charged with the intention of committing “serious violence against a person in the United Kingdom,” the statement outlined.

The UK’s Crown Prosecution Service charged the men on Friday, and they are due to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Saturday. The investigation is being led by the British counter terrorism police.

Commander Dominic Murphy, from the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said: “These are extremely serious charges under the National Security Act, which have come about following what has been a very complex and fast-moving investigation.”

A fourth man, aged 31, who was arrested on Friday, May 9, has been released without charge.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A Russian drone attack on a bus in northeastern Ukraine killed at least nine people and injured seven others, Ukrainian officials said Saturday, just hours after the two countries met for the first direct peace talks in three years.

While the two sides discussed a possible meeting between the two countries’ leaders, a ceasefire and agreed a prisoner swap, there was no major breakthrough and since then Russia’s aerial assault continued.

The drone attack took place Saturday morning in the city of Bilopillia in the Sumy region, local authorities said, with Oleh Hrihorov – head of Sumy’s military administration – saying that seven people were injured, three of whom were in critical condition.

“This is not just another shelling – it is a cynical war crime,” Ukraine’s National Police also said on Telegram. Police and local authorities said Russia had struck a civilian target.

Moscow has not yet responded to Ukraine’s claims it struck a civilian bus.

However, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported around the same time, citing a statement from the defense ministry, that Russian forces did strike a Ukrainian equipment staging site in the Sumy region with drones.

Russia and Ukraine have both accused each other of targeting civilians, which each denies.

An image shared by Ukraine’s national police showed a heavily damaged van bearing massive holes in the right and top side of the passenger seats. Its windows, as well as the windshield, were shattered.

Overall in Ukraine, Russian attacks killed at least 13 people and injured over 38 in the past 24 hours, which includes the attack in Sumy, Ukrainian authorities say. Two were killed in Donetsk region, and one person was killed in both Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

Friday’s talks marked the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides since the early weeks of the war.

But the meeting – which took place in Istanbul chaired by Turkey – was not attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had first proposed the talks but instead sent a junior delegation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stayed away, having said he would not meet any other Russian official but Putin.

On Saturday, the Kremlin said that a meeting between Zelensky and Putin could happen, but only if certain conditions are met.

“Such a meeting is possible as a result of the work of the delegations of both sides in reaching certain agreements,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Peskov also spoke about preparing a list of “conditions” for a ceasefire agreement, that would then be exchanged with the Ukrainian side. Kyiv and its allies have repeatedly called for an unconditional truce and accuse Russia of deliberately holding up peace efforts.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

We’ve all heard the classic market maxim, “Sell in May and go away.”  For many investors, that’s the introduction to market seasonality that suggests a six month period where it’s just best to avoid stocks altogether.

Through my own experience, complemented with interviews with seasonality experts like ”  We’ll dig deeper into the history of “Sell in May,” analyze summer trends in recent years, and focus on signs to follow in the weeks and months ahead!  Sign up HERE for this free event!


It turns out that the reason why “sell in May” has often worked out is less about May being super weak, but more about how major lows have usually come in the fall months.  Since the COVID low in early 2020, we’ve experienced major lows in September or October every year except for 2024.

Spring and Early Summer Have Been Crazy Strong

When we focus on the last five years, we can see that the May-June-July period has been consistently strong.  In fact, May and July have seen bullish trends every year since 2019.  So while investors often talk about the “summer doldrums” and weakness into the hot summer months, the recent evidence would suggest otherwise.

The weakest months since the COVID low have actually been January, February, September, and October.  So again, it’s been less about weakness in the spring, and much more about weaker price action into the traditional low in September or October.  Also note the strength in November, where the market is almost always rallying off a major low and setting up for a positive finish to the calendar year!

Will 2025 Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

As I mentioned earlier, I like to think of seasonal patterns as tendencies.  There is no guarantee that July will be strong, and there is no way I can tell you for sure that the market will make yet another major low in September.  Seasonality tells you the general bias to the markets, but mindful investors know the most important evidence is price itself.

Given the extreme rally off the early April low, we’ve seen a rapid rotation from bearish sentiment to more bullish outlooks as investors have started to believe in the new uptrend phase.  This week’s price gap higher for the S&P 500 could provide a perfect support range to monitor in the coming weeks and months.

If the S&P 500 is able to hold 5750, and remain above the support range set from the gap earlier this month, then perhaps the equity markets will follow the same pattern as recent years and remain strong into August.

If, however, the S&P 500 is unable to hold this key support range, and we also confirm that breakdown with weaker momentum readings and deteriorating breadth conditions, then the S&P 500 may be charting a new course through what has become a strong period in the calendar year.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.