Silver price, April 1 to July 17, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

At the start of June, the price of silver soared to 14 year highs, opening the month at US$32.99 and rising to US$36.76 by June 9. Ultimately, the metal reached a year-to-date high of US$37.12 on June 17. Although the price has eased slightly from its high, it has remained in the US$36 to US$37 range to the end of the quarter and into July.

Silver supply/demand balance still tight

Various factors impacted silver in the second quarter of the year, but industrial demand was a primary driver in both upward and downward movements. Over the past several years, silver has been increasingly utilized in industrial sectors, particularly in the production of photovoltaics. In fact, according to the Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey, released on April 16, demand for the metal reached a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024.

Artificial intelligence, vehicle electrification and grid infrastructure all contributed to demand growth

At the same time, mine supply has failed to keep up, with the institute reporting a 148.9 million ounce production shortfall. This marked the fourth consecutive year of structural deficit in the silver market.

“(We have) flat supply, growing demand — demand that’s nearly 20 percent above supply,’ he said. ‘And our ability to meet those deficits is shrinking because we’re tapping into these aboveground stockpiles that have shrunk by about 800 million ounces in the last four years, which is equivalent to an entire year’s mine supply. So it’s the perfect storm.’

But industrial demand can send the silver price in either direction.

The chaos caused by Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs has caused some consternation among investors.

While gold and silver have traditionally both been viewed as safe-haven assets, silver’s increasing industrial demand has decoupled it slightly from that aspect. When Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on April 2, silver was impacted due to fears that a recession could cause demand for the metal to slip.

Although the dip in silver was short-lived, it was one of its steepest falls in recent years.

“If a global recession really starts, silver will most likely nosedive momentarily. In terms of its 2025 performance, silver growth has been largely bolstered by consolidated precious metals group appreciation, additionally beefed up by relative USD weakness.’

Geopolitics and the silver price

Adding to the tailwinds is a growing east-west divide. Due to its usage in industrial components, particularly those related to the military and energy sectors, and its role as a safe haven, silver is being influenced by geopolitics.

June’s price rally came alongside growing speculation that Israel was preparing to attack Iranian nuclear sites. Investors became concerned that war could disrupt international trade and oil movements in the region.

Ultimately, their concerns were proven right, and Israel launched attacks on June 12; the US then bombed key nuclear facilities on June 21. While the escalation is new, the underlying politics have been simmering for years.

Sanctions against Russia have strengthened support among the BRICS nations, which have been working to reduce their reliance on US dollar assets, such as treasuries, and increase trade in their own currencies.

But they may also be working to separate themselves from western commodities markets. In October 2024, Russia floated the idea of creating a precious metals exchange to its BRICS counterparts. If established, it could shake up pricing for commodities like silver, allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions and trade with its bloc partners.

While the exchange is still just an idea, a bifurcated world is not. While the US has targeted most nations with tariffs, it has singled out China. Much of the first half of the year saw the world’s two largest economies escalate import fees with one another, with China even restricting the export of rare earth elements to the US.

Discussions on national security and critical minerals have been at the forefront for the last several years. Still, they have become even more pronounced with the US and China on tense footing.

“Even if that’s going to happen, industrial use value — building infrastructure, building national security, national energy priorities — needs a lot of silver, and there just simply isn’t enough supply out of the ground to meet the demand. That’s long-term demand above the ground. This has been a thing, but right now, because of these geopolitical forces and realignments, silver is going to drop more into that industrial role,” she said.

Silver price forecast for 2025

Overall, the expectation is that without new mine supply and dwindling aboveground stockpiles, silver is likely to remain in deficit for some time. Other factors, like Trump tariffs and geopolitics, aren’t likely to disappear either.

Demand could ease off if a global recession were to materialize, but safe-haven investing could offset declines.

For his part, Krauth thinks the silver price is likely to remain above the US$35 mark, but it could fluctuate and he suggested a rally in the US dollar could push the silver price down. However, he also sees some pressure easing on the recession side of the equation if the US signs tariff deals that would eliminate some uncertainty.

“US$40, let’s say by the end of this year,’ he said, adding, ‘Frankly, I could see something really realistically above that, maybe an additional 10 percent if the scenario plays out right.’

He doesn’t think that’s the end. In the longer term, Krauth sees silver going even higher. He pointed to the current gold-silver ratio, which is around 92:1, compared to an average of 60:1 over the last 50 years.

“So we could go to, who knows, somewhere like maybe 40 or 30 to one in the ratio. That would be tremendous for silver — that could bring silver above US$100. I’m not saying that’s happening tomorrow, but in the next couple of years I would say that’s certainly something that could easily be in the cards,” Krauth said.

Fundamentals and geopolitics aligned for silver in the first half of 2025, and barring a recession, they are likely to provide tailwinds in the second half. Whether the price climbs or continues to find support at US$35 is yet to be seen.

Court upholds TMC disclosures on deep-dea mining risks

Lockheed is not alone in navigating the legal uncertainties surrounding seabed mining.

The Metals Company (TMC) (NASDAQ:TMC), a deep-sea mining startup, recently survived a shareholder lawsuit alleging it had misled investors about the environmental impacts and financial backing of its operations.

US District Judge Eric Komitee dismissed the claims, ruling that the company’s comparisons to conventional mining methods were not misleading, even if deep-sea mining still carries environmental risks.

“It is eminently possible that (1) deep-sea mining causes meaningful environmental harm, and yet (2) such harm is significantly less than the harm caused by existing methods,” the judge wrote.

TMC had disclosed in filings that deep-sea mining could result in damage and that the regulatory path remained uncertain. Its legal win may encourage others — like Lockheed — to proceed more openly with their seabed plans, albeit cautiously.

Deep-sea mining industry cautiously awakens

The growing pursuit of potentially extracting resources from the world’s oceans comes at a critical juncture for the seabed-mining industry. For decades, a de facto moratorium on mining in international waters has been in place due to regulatory uncertainty and environmental concerns.

The ISA has issued more than 30 exploratory permits, but has yet to finalize commercial extraction rules. That delay has prompted frustration from some parties, while drawing calls from others for a pause or outright ban.

Currently, the ISA is holding key assemblies in Jamaica to hash out the long-awaited mining code to regulate commercial activity on the ocean floor with provisions for environmental safeguards, royalties, and tax obligations.

But a growing number of countries — 37 at last count — have pushed for a precautionary pause, citing risks to deep-sea ecosystems that remain largely uncharted. Scientists warn that mining these habitats could cause irreversible damage.

In 2023, Lockheed appeared to step back from the sector by selling two UK-sponsored exploration licenses in the Pacific, a move interpreted by analysts as signaling reduced confidence in deep-sea mining.

However, its retained US licenses suggest it never fully exited the space.

The Trump administration’s executive order marks the most assertive US step yet to undermine the ISA’s multilateral approach, raising fears among diplomats that the agency may lose legitimacy.

China, which has also invested heavily in seabed mining, responded sharply to the move.

“The US authorization violates international law and harms the overall interests of the international community,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said earlier this year.

Watch a recap of key Rule Symposium takeaways.

Tailwinds turning to headwinds

In addition to strategically allocating to gold, geopolitical uncertainty was as a key theme at the Rule Symposium.

During his presentation “Back to the Old Drawing Board: First Principles and the Lost Art of Investing Through Crisis,” author and publisher Grant Williams made the case that longstanding tailwinds — globalization, demographic expansion and low interest rates — have reversed, giving way to persistent uncertainty.

Grant Williams (@ttmygh) is the first keynote speaker in a jam-packed day at the #RuleSymposium.

Offering advice on #investing during times of crisis, Williams told the full room that the “world has been on a debt binge for the last four decades.” pic.twitter.com/wWBtOu598W

— Resource Investing (@INN_Resource) July 8, 2025

Williams provides an overview of shifting market dynamics.

He traced the last four decades of wealth creation to a rare alignment of forces that pushed asset prices, particularly US equities, sharply higher. However, since 2020, a new macro regime has emerged, defined by tighter monetary policy, rising geopolitical risk and fading confidence in the US dollar.

Like many speakers at the Rule Symposium, Williams also underscored the massive gold purchases central banks are making. During Q1 of this year, central banks added 244 metric tons of gold to their official reserves, a 24 percent increase above the five year quarterly average, according to World Gold Council data.

For Williams, this shift signals growing concern within the financial system — a trend investors shouldn’t overlook.

“When central banks are exchanging their reserves for gold in record amounts, if they feel the sudden urgent need to own more gold, you better believe that we should feel that too,” he noted.

The expert went on to illustrate how major economic and societal cycles are converging, suggesting more volatility ahead. A live poll of the audience taken during his session revealed growing unease among attendees, with many already adjusting their portfolios and long-term goals. In response, Williams called for a return to key principles: scarcity, durability, resilience, trust, patience and a clear-eyed acceptance of uncertainty.

These, he said, should now anchor any sound investment approach. He urged Rule Symposium attendees to shift their mindset from chasing returns to preserving capital by reducing overexposure to US equities, diversifying by geography and asset class and focusing on businesses with real staying power.

The investment playbook of the past no longer fits the world we’re entering, he stressed.

Navigating what Williams calls an “age of headwinds” will require humility, discipline and a willingness to rethink what truly creates and protects wealth.

Hard assets set to shine

Economist, author and former Wall Street executive Dr. Nomi Prins laid out a case for what she calls the “real asset uprising,” a global shift in value and power driven by hard assets like gold, silver, copper, uranium and rare earths.

Drawing on her experience in high-level banking and her current work in the mining sector, Prins argued that rising geopolitical friction, shifting trade dynamics and financial system strain are fueling a renewed focus on tangible resources. She pointed to surging institutional interest in commodities, noting that Wall Street deal flow tied to real assets is up 24 percent year-on-year, while hiring in commodity finance roles has increased by 15 percent.

Gold, once dismissed on trading desks, is now seen as a strategic monetary tool.

According to Prins, the yellow metal will not replace the US dollar as the reserve currency, but it will play a central role in bilateral trade and power negotiations. Gold’s jurisdiction — where it is stored and mined — is now more important than ever, she explained, as nations seek to shield assets from sanctions and instability.

Silver, copper, uranium and rare earths are all finding support through similar structural tailwinds, Prins pointed out.

Silver demand is rising due to its industrial applications, and limited aboveground supply is driving long-term contracts.

For its part, copper has become so strategically important that the US is conducting a Section 232 national security investigation into its supply chain, a move historically reserved for defense resources. Major buyers like China and India are stockpiling copper in anticipation of supply constraints.

Uranium is also surging back into focus, driven by bipartisan support for nuclear energy. Legislation and executive orders are fast tracking uranium permitting and enrichment, with utility demand expected to outstrip supply.

Rare earths = real assets

Prins highlighted rare earths as a critical new front in the ongoing global shift in value and power.

‘Rare earths are intrinsic to the nation,’ she said, pointing to their essential role in defense, electronics and energy technologies. With 85 percent of processing controlled by China, the US has launched Section 232 investigations to assess domestic vulnerabilities — reports on copper and rare earths are expected this fall.

Prins described her decision to join the board of a rare earths company as a natural extension of her belief in physical assets: “It’s not just about the asset — it’s about controlling the asset, the processing and the movement.”

That theme underpins the investment case: security of supply, efficient processing and strategic jurisdiction are key to value creation. She also noted a dramatic capital rotation, saying that US$330 billion has exited bonds over the past year, while US$230 billion has flowed into commodities.

“Wall Street is following the real asset story,” Prins emphasized.

.@porterstansb of Porter’s Daily Journal joins @RealRickRule for a #RuleSymposium fireside chat about the investment landscape.

“There are a good two or three years left in the #resource boom,” said Stansberry, who is working on a book about Warren Buffet’s #investing mistakes. pic.twitter.com/K9FdihfJO3

— Resource Investing (@INN_Resource) July 8, 2025

Rule sits down with Porter Stansberry to discuss his investment strategy.

Prins then said real upside now lies not just in owning resources, but in having processing capability.

New technologies, like advanced rare earths separation methods, are increasing economic viability and attracting private capital. “Where private money and public power combine, that’s where the investment opportunity is,” she said.

With key policy announcements and trade shifts looming in the fall, she warned investors this is a “very critical time” in the real asset uprising. For Prins, the message is clear: investors, policymakers and mining leaders must position accordingly, because, in today’s world, “whoever controls the ground controls the game.’

Gold price, April 1 to July 10, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

The price of gold started the second quarter on a downswing, falling below the US$3,000 mark by April 8, but quickly found momentum and soared to its quarterly high of US$3,434.40 on April 21.

It broke through the US$3,500 threshold briefly during the day’s trading session.

However, the gains were temporary, and gold once again fell; by May 1, it had dropped to US$3,237.30.

The metal saw a slight rebound to US$3,400.70 before the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but it came under pressure after that and had fallen to US$3,185 by May 14.

The end of May saw more tailwinds for the gold price, pushing it first to US$3,358 by May 23, then to US$3,381.70 by June 2. By the middle of the month, it was back to trading above US$3,400. Since that time, the precious metal has remained mainly above the US$3,300 level, closing the quarter at US$3,303.30 on June 30.

Tariff uncertainty helps boost gold price

The biggest story from the first quarter has carried over into the second quarter: tariffs.

Since the start of his second term in the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump has applied the threat of tariffs like a cudgel in trade talks with other countries. His long-held belief is that other nations, even longtime allies, are benefiting from trade with the US, while the US itself is facing detrimental effects.

During the first quarter of the year, the Trump administration levied tariff threats against Canada and Mexico. While most of his promised import fees were dialed back at the eleventh hour, a 25 percent tax was still applied to imports of Canadian steel and aluminum, as well as non-CUSMA-compliant automobiles and parts.

On April 2, Trump announced a broader set of tariffs on nearly every country in the world, regardless of trade status with the US. Dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump, the executive order applied a baseline 10 percent fee to all imports from most countries to the US, plus significant reciprocal measures against countries with the largest trade deficits.

The new measures, set to be implemented on April 9, created panic among investors, causing a global market meltdown. Fear also spread to US debt holders, such as Japan and Canada, which began to sell US treasuries, pushing up the 10 year bond yield. Spooked investors rapidly flocked to gold, pushing the price to record highs above US$3,400.

“The bond market understands that Washington is so broken and the debt situation is so bad,’ he explained. ‘It varies in degrees compared to other countries, but everybody’s in the same boat. That’s why gold all of a sudden … gold is the safe haven now, even more than treasuries. And I don’t think a lot of people every thought they’d see that again.’

Ultimately, the stock market turmoil and the shift in bond market sentiment brought about a quick reversal from Trump, who paused his tariff plans for 90 days. Although the gold price showed signs of easing as market participants calmed, the metal remained high through the end of the quarter as uncertainty remained near the surface.

The pause was set to expire on July 9, but the White House announced a last-minute extension delaying the implementation of the tariffs on all but 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea and South Africa.

However, there are still underlying concerns.

The US-China trade war, which raged through much of the first half of the year, was put on hold on May 12 after tariffs between the two largest economies reached their peak, adding headwinds to the gold price. Up to that point, the US had levied a 145 percent import tax on Chinese goods while China had applied a 125 percent tax on US imports.

Although tensions have stabilized since the pause, on July 7, China warned the US against reigniting conflicts. China also said it would retaliate against any country that makes deals with the US to China’s detriment.

Geopolitical tensions erupt in the Middle East

Financial uncertainty was a key driver of the gold price through the second quarter as investors sought to diversify their portfolios amid a chaotic investment landscape, but it wasn’t the only factor.

Geopolitical tensions also played a significant role, particularly in the Middle East.

With the Israel-Gaza conflict now past 18 months, the larger fear was that it would spill into a broader regional war.

Those fears were stoked in late May, when there was speculation that Israel was preparing to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. The news helped pull gold out of monthly lows as more investors sought the safety of the metal.

Ultimately, the speculation was true — on June 12, Israel launched attacks against key nuclear sites in Iran, causing Iran to launch counterattacks against targets in Israel and providing further tailwinds for the gold price.

What’s driving demand for gold?

Other support for the gold price came from continued purchases from central banks.

According to World Gold Council data, central banks bought 244 metric tons of gold in Q1. The amount was 24 percent higher than the five year quarterly average, but 9 percent lower than the average from the last three years.

The largest first quarter gold buyers were the National Bank of Poland, which added 49 metric tons of the metal to its holdings, increasing its total to 497 metric tons. This was followed by the People’s Bank of China, which purchased 13 metric tons, bringing its reported gold reserves to 2,292 metric tons

In another report, the World Gold Council indicates that despite high prices, central banks continued to buy gold in May, albeit at a slightly reduced pace, with a net 20 metric tons entering their reserves.

But it’s not just central banks that are picking up gold.

“In the past, there has been relatively little involvement, even to now, from western retail investors in this move. This has been overwhelmingly led by central banks and large funds,” Temple said.

However, he noted a shift in buying on the back of wider interest, pointing to gold’s popularity at Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), although he noted, ‘So far, this hasn’t moved the needle significantly.’

Temple added, “Traditionally the big needle mover when you’ve got these larger swings in markets and market sentiment has come from investors who are buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and buying the larger gold stocks, and then ultimately working their way down the food chain and buying the better exploration stories. We finally started in recent months to see some of that where it’s deserved. There have been some really nice moves.’

This idea is echoed in the World Gold Council’s June ETF report, which indicates that ETF flows ended the first half of 2025 with the highest semiannual inflows since the first half of 2020.

The North American movement led the way, with more than US$4.8 billion entering the market in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to US$21 billion. This was followed by US$2 billion in inflows in Europe, with its first half total reaching US$6 billion. Asian markets added US$610 million with a first-half record of US$11 billion.

Gold price forecast for 2025

The expectation is that the factors that drove the gold price in H1 are unlikely to go away soon.

Trump continues to kick the tariff question down the road. And although a ceasefire has been called between Israel and Iran, tensions in the region are still high. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, with Russia escalating attacks at the start of July, to the point of invoking Trump’s ire.

“We were thinking that by the time you got into June, July, August, not only would you have some seasonal weakness, but you’d also have a situation where financial markets might have calmed down and taken a less pessimistic outlook to the economy, simply because the initial shock of Trump policies was in there and had been digested. What we’re seeing is a prolongation of that shock period.’

Financial uncertainty and conflicts were a theme echoed by Kandoshko.

She pointed to the July 9 — now August 1 — deadline for tariffs as a potential inflection point.

“This could spark another rally in gold prices if trade tensions escalate. I have a feeling that the existing tariffs will gradually push prices up, which might lead the Fed to hold off on cutting rates. In the grand scheme of things, higher inflation is likely to boost gold demand, especially from central banks,” Kandoshko said.

She also believes a weak US dollar will likely be a boon for gold, making it more attractive to overseas buyers.

AI results impact major tech players

In public markets, AI-related equities continued to attract attention.

NVIDIA posted another blockbuster quarter, with its market cap on the cusp of $US4 trillion at the end of June. Its performance was driven largely by demand for Blackwell architecture.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), facing a possible Chrome divestiture, reported an increase in AI-related ad revenue and highlighted growing adoption of its Gemini model suite. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported a 23 percent annual increase in net sales from its Amazon Web Services segment, beating earnings estimates by 17.78 percent.

Meta Platforms’ (NASDAQ:META) Reality Labs division reported a $US4.2 billion operating loss; however, interest in embodied AI applications for the metaverse and augmented reality continue to be the company’s long-term play, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg poaching the industry’s top talent to assemble the Meta Superintelligence Lab. On July 7, Reuters reported that the company had added Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Ruoming Pang as its latest recruit.

Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI partnership faced issues after OpenAI bought Windsurf, an AI coding firm. Disputes arose over Microsoft’s access to WindSurf’s IP and its stake in a restructured OpenAI.

Q2 was also marked by a shift to AI in hardware, robotics and edge applications.

Chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Google introduced specialized AI accelerators, a potential challenge to NVIDIA’s nearly three year run as the dominant provider.

Notable developments in robotics included Google Cloud and Samsung Electronics’ (KRX:005930) partnership, integrating Google Cloud’s advanced generative AI technology into Samsung’s new home AI companion robot, Ballie.

Data center operators like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud also increased their infrastructure investments in the US as part of an effort to reduce reliance on foreign markets and secure long-term AI compute capacity.

Companies began testing or rolling out new AI agent capabilities, empowered by the Model Context Protocol from Anthropic. Major tech players, along with payment giants Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Stripe, Block (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), began adopting the Model Context Protocol to integrate seamless payment functionality directly into AI chatbots, moving beyond simple browse to full commerce.

Microsoft enhanced its GitHub Copilot offering with new coding agents capable of autonomous actions, while a handful of companies, including Dataiku, Databricks and Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM), introduced tools designed to build, deploy and manage autonomous systems for real-world enterprise applications.

On the quantum computing side, a paper published by researcher Craig Gidney for Google’s Quantum AI division suggests that a quantum computer could break a highly secure 2048 bit encryption, like the kind used for online banking, much faster than previously thought, requiring fewer than a million qubits.

Quantum computing firms later saw their shares spike following bullish comments from NVIDIA’s Huang at his company’s Paris GTC conference. Before Huang’s comments, IBM (NYSE:IBM) announced its development of the world’s first large-scale, error-free quantum computer, set to launch by 2029.

Graph indicating that investor enthusiasm for AI stocks has recently ‘lost altitude.’

Graph via Picton Investments.

However, the firm also suggests that this shift is redirecting the spotlight to real-world AI applications, leading to an expected acceleration of industrial adoption and the creation of new companies.

At this year’s Web Summit conference in May, panelists emphasized the critical role of strategic early stage investments when it comes to navigating the evolving AI landscape and identifying new opportunities.

“Our take is (that) AI is going to upend a lot of technology businesses. In the specific sense, I am of increasingly high conviction that authoring software is going to be more or less free, and that’s going to shake up the topology of the software business market (in terms of) what makes sense and what’s investable,” said Brett Gibson, managing partner at Initialized Capital, during a panel discussion on where AI investment is headed next.

He added that customizable software will ultimately allow for tailored solutions for virtually any need.

In H2, quantum computing could continue its shift from pure research into early stage commercialization.

Updates may come from firms like IonQ (NYSE:IONQ), which recently raised US$1 billion to expand quantum networking, as well as Quantinuum and PsiQuantum, which may reach technical milestones.

Meanwhile, D-Wave (NYSE:QBTS) is pivoting toward hybrid commercial models, which may offer continued proof of revenue from quantum optimization-as-a-service.

However, the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world could impact chip capacity and rare earths supply chains, constraining the growth of AI hardware stocks.

The Trump administration’s imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Japan and South Korea may pose a threat to semiconductor capacity and rare earths equipment imports critical for AI hardware.

“Both countries have been close partners on economic security matters and have a lot to offer the United States on priority matters like shipbuilding, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy cooperation,” Asia Society Policy Institute vice president Wendy Cutler said in response to the hikes.

Investor takeaway

The second quarter of the year confirmed an evolution in the AI landscape as the industry moves beyond theoretical discussions to real-world applications and critical infrastructure development.

While geopolitical tensions and concerns about job displacement may continue to present challenges, this pivot could set the stage for continued innovation and adaptation as the industry navigates both opportunities and complexities.