Some investors have owned Series I savings bonds (I bonds) for many years, and the 30-year maturity date is approaching. Others bought Series I savings bonds in recent years to insulate their portfolios from inflation and the ups and downs in the stock market. 

Whether you are a recent investor in I bonds, have owned them for many years, or are pondering adding them to your investment portfolio, you should be aware of the federal tax rules. 

I bonds have important tax advantages for owners. Interest earned on I bonds is exempt from state and local taxation. Also, owners can defer federal income tax on the accrued interest for up to 30 years. 

These rules might seem simple at first. But they can get complicated pretty quickly. 

For example, the tax treatment of I bonds varies depending on who owns the bonds, whether you gift the bonds to someone else, and in some cases, how the bonds are used. What follows are descriptions of how and when I bond interest is taxed under federal law in nine common situations.  Hopefully, this information will help you trim your tax bill while planning for the future.

Note: For people who own EE bonds, the federal income tax consequences are identical to those of I bonds. So this story is also applicable to you. 

Are banks open on Veterans Day in 2024? That’s a question plenty of folks are wondering just ahead of the holiday that honors those who have served in the military. The answer is no, banks are not open on Monday, November 11.

Veterans Day, which is known as Armistice Day or Remembrance Day in other countries, is a federal holiday that occurs each year on November 11. It marks the day in 1918 an agreement was signed between Germany and the Allied nations to end World War I. It is one of 11 bank holidays this year.

Many folks will choose to spend the holiday with family and friends, attending a local parade or supporting a veteran-owned business. Others might want to take a few minutes talking with a vet they know closely about their financial health. For instance, Kiplinger editors uncovered these major financial benefits provided to veterans and their families by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), including home loans.

We’ve also taken a closer look at a number of programs available to help offset the financial circumstances that are specific to service members – including one for those called to active duty whose compensation could be cut from their regular job while they are away.

As for those wondering “Is the stock market open on Veterans Day?,” the answer to that is yes. Veterans Day is not a stock market holiday.

Anyone curious about what time does the market open for regular trading hours, both the Nasdaq Stock Market and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are open from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm Eastern time Monday through Friday.

Below, we feature a full schedule of all U.S. bank holidays for 2024.

Bank holidays 2024

* This is the recommended bank market holiday schedule from the Federal Reserve. This schedule is subject to change.

Markets surged in the aftermath of the presidential election, and while it’s true that long-term investors have done well regardless of which party holds the White House, traders and tacticians have very different incentives and time frames.

Capital is rarely destroyed, but it does move around. As such, the potential implications for asset prices and economic developments have market participants recalibrating bets across classes, sectors, industries and even specific stocks.

Sector leaders early Wednesday included financials, industrials and energy names, while real estate and utilities weighed on the market. Small-cap stocks also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 Index gapping up more than 5% at the open. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes sold off, raising borrowing costs at the longer end of the yield curve. Gold and oil declined.

Also note that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) plummeted. Although election uncertainty has been removed from the list of worries fueling the market’s so-called fear gauge, one day’s action does not make a trend.

With the 2024 election now a matter of record, we turned to economists, strategists and other experts for their thoughts on what the regime change in Washington could mean for markets, macroeconomics and monetary policy going forward.

Please see a selection of commentary below, sometimes edited for brevity or clarity.

Markets & macro: The experts weigh in

“Markets hate uncertainty and now that the election is officially over, stocks are soaring today. Optimism over tax cuts, a still dovish Fed, and a potentially better economy are part of it, but the reality is the economy has been quite solid all year, so this really isn’t anything new. Back to your regularly scheduled bull market is how we see it.” – Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group

“A key driver for stocks in the near term will be the reduction in political uncertainty, a dynamic that typically drives strong year-end returns in Presidential election years. Along with the resolution of election uncertainty, resilient recent economic growth data and continued Fed rate cuts support the healthy near-term outlook for U.S. stocks. We believe investors and corporate executives will now focus on four issues relating to the US equity market: (1) Post-election path of the S&P 500 index; (2) Equity investor positioning; (3) Rotations within the market, including those relating to trade and tax policy; and (4) The outlook for corporate M&A and IPO activity. We maintain our 12-month S&P 500 index target of 6300, reflecting a 9% gain from the current level.” – David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs

“The market’s reaction to the election outcome has been robust, with U.S. equities experiencing significant gains. Small caps and regional banks are particularly benefiting from investor confidence in pro-cyclical policies and potential deregulation. This reflects a broader optimism about U.S. economic resilience and growth prospects, as these sectors are poised to capitalize on increased M&A opportunities and a favorable regulatory environment.” – Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank

“Corporate fundamentals are on solid ground, profits are expected to grow over the coming quarters, and stock prices reflect a healthy environment. Stocks are sitting on very healthy year-to-date gains, with all 11 sectors expected to grow profits in 2025. Normalized inflation levels should continue to relieve pressures on consumers and businesses over time. Notably, lower interest rates could help add support for lending activities, business investment, and improve affordability across larger-ticket consumer items, such as homes and autos. America is working, and consumers/businesses are spending. As a result, U.S. growth trends remain the envy of the world.” – Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise

“Favorable macro drivers still dominate, and the prospect of a Republican sweep and lower taxes is adding to the market enthusiasm. That may get tempered in the coming weeks by more details regarding tariff policy or a continued rise in long-term Treasury yields, but for the past two years we’ve said that the environment is favorable for risk taking and that remains the case.” – Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management

“Trump’s win implies import tariffs in 2025, giving the Federal Reserve less scope to ease. The scope for tax cuts and a much larger budget deficit in 2026 remains unclear given that the race to control the House is finely balanced, but we can now be almost certain that tariffs on imports will be imposed next year. A renewed downturn now looms for the manufacturing sector, which has stagnated this year. Retaliation by foreign governments with their own tariffs and the stronger dollar will weaken exports, while it will remain much cheaper to source goods from overseas. In the past, the Fed has looked through adverse supply shocks, but with core PCE inflation now unlikely to return to the 2% target and households’ medium-term inflation expectations still above target-consistent rates, it will have to change course this time.” – Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics

“After a decisive presidential election, our first take on financial markets is that the U.S. dollar rally still has room to run, U.S. longer rates have more quickly priced in the election outcome, a U.S. equity melt-up into year​-​end is a real possibility, and European stocks, while already pricing tariff risk, may keep lagging.” – the team at Barclays Cross Asset Research

“Capital is rarely destroyed; usually, it just moves around. Capital simply oozes through the global financial system in search of where it is most welcomed and used productively on a relative (not absolute) basis. That’s the primary reason U.S. equities outperform rest of world stocks and why the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency despite relatively high Federal deficits. It’s not that U.S. companies are uniformly the best enterprises, or the U.S. system of government is an optimal structure. Rather, both are simply better than most liquid alternatives.” – Nicholas Colas, co-founder with Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

Rates on high-yield savings accounts are still high, with some offering up to 5%. If you plan to take advantage of high interest rates this year, you might be wondering if your high-yield savings account interest is taxable.

The answer is yes, but these types of accounts can offer the potential for significant savings, so don’t let that discourage you from opening one.

Here’s what you need to know.

High-yeld savings vs. regular savings 

Before diving into an explanation of how interest income from your savings account is taxed, it’s good to know the difference between a regular savings account and a high-yield savings or high-interest savings account.

But because you are earning more interest income from a high-yield savings account, the amount that is subject to tax is typically greater.

However, you are also earning more money on your savings in what is usually an FDIC-insured account. So consider the pros and cons of having some of your money in a high-yield savings account.

How savings account interest is taxed 

While you won’t owe taxes on the principal account balance in your savings account, any savings account interest earned is considered taxable income.

The IRS taxes interest from high-yield savings accounts (and traditional interest-bearing savings accounts) at the same rate they tax other income (e.g., from your job). Any money you accumulate in interest is added to your other taxable income.

There is some good news, though. Since the IRS adjusts federal income tax brackets each year for inflation, you could pay a lower tax rate for 2025 than you paid last year.

So, for example, let’s say that you earned $10,000 in interest income and your marginal tax rate is 22% based on your 2025 federal income tax bracket. Using that information, the tax on your savings account interest would generally be $2,200.

On the other hand, if you have $20,000 in your high-yield savings account and earn 3.75% interest, you would not be taxed on the $20,000, which is your savings account principal balance. Instead, you would only be taxed on the 3.75% you earned in interest.

Note: Some people might be subject to an additional tax called the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT). NIIT is currently a 3.8% tax on capital gains, rental property income, and dividend income for filers with higher incomes.

Here are the federal marginal tax rates for the 2025 tax year (for taxes filed in early 2026).

How much savings account interest income is taxable?

All of your high-yield savings account interest is taxable. Your financial institution will send you a Form 1099-INT once you earn more than $10 in interest.

However, the IRS still requires that you report any savings interest earned, even if the amount you earn is under the ten-dollar threshold. You report savings account interest income on your tax return in the year it is earned.

Note: You might also need to pay income tax on interest earned at the state level. Most states consider interest from high-yield savings accounts taxable.

How to avoid tax on savings account interest 

You can’t avoid federal income tax on high-yield savings account interest — if you earn more than $10 — but it is possible to avoid tax on other types of savings accounts. However, avoiding tax may limit how you can spend your earnings. Here are a few ways a savings account can accrue interest tax-free.

Education Savings Account: Interest from Series EE or I bonds may not be taxable when used to pay for qualifying education expenses. Additionally, interest earned from a 529 savings plan may not be taxable when earnings are withdrawn to pay for qualified expenses.

Health Savings: A health savings account (HSA) can earn interest. This interest is tax-free (and so is the money you contribute) as long as you use it to pay for qualified health expenses. Just make sure you don’t exceed your HSA contribution limit. If you do, you could face penalties.

Retirement Savings: These plans can boost your savings, but there are pros and cons to 401(k)s and IRAs. Interest earned from a traditional IRA or 401(k) isn’t really tax-free, but you might avoid paying any taxes until later. Interest and contributions to these retirement accounts aren’t taxed until you make withdrawals.

Is having a high-yield savings account worth it? 

While paying taxes on earned interest is a downside to high-yield savings accounts, don’t let that discourage you from opening one. The positives may very well outweigh the negatives.

Now might be a good time to open a high-yield savings account. Although the Federal Reserve is coming down from a 23-year high, the federal funds rate is still comparable to last year.

And when federal interest rates are high, interest rates on high-yield savings accounts generally are, too. For example, the popular Apple savings account offers an APY of 4.25%, and some banks offer interest rates up to 5%.

A trusted tax professional or financial planner can help you determine whether a high-yield savings account is the right move for you this year. Also, check out Kiplinger’s coverage of the best high-yield savings accounts if you choose that route.

It’s great being your own boss — until you have to wade through the alphabet soup of SEP IRAs and other retirement plans. Whether you’re a full-fledged small-business owner, have a side hustle or receive 1099’s as a freelancer or gig worker, there are several smart ways to save for retirement specifically designed for the self-employed.

Here’s a comparison of two popular self-employed retirement savings plans: the solo 401(k) and the SEP IRA. See which option is right for your business and retirement planning needs.

SEP IRAs: What is a SEP IRA and how much can you contribute?

A Simplified Employee Pension IRA (SEP IRA) is a retirement account for anyone who is self-employed, owns a business or earns freelance income. A big advantage for small businesses is the low overhead; SEP IRAs do not have the same start-up and operating costs as a conventional retirement plan.

SEP IRAs are available for a variety of small-business types, including sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited liability companies, S corporations and C corporations. You don’t even technically need to have an established business to open a SEP IRA. Anyone who has self-employed income can open a SEP IRA, including freelancers and gig workers who aren’t considered employees.

Who can contribute: An eligible employee, including a self-employed person, is an individual who meets all the following requirements: has reached age 21, has worked for the employer in at least three of the last five years and received at least $750 in compensation. The rules are the same for 2024 and 2025.

Maximum Contribution: The maximum amount an employer or self-employed person can contribute to a SEP IRA for 2024 is the lesser of $69,000, or up to 25% of compensation or net self-employment earnings, with a $345,000 limit on compensation that can be used to factor the contribution. In 2025, these limits increase to $70,000 and $350,000 respectively.

Contribution deadline: Contributions must be made by the tax filing deadline or extension of the employer’s return.

How to open a SEP IRA: A SEP IRA can be opened at many online brokers. You can set up a SEP for a year as late as the due date (including extensions) of your business income tax return for the year you want to establish the plan. You can establish and fund a plan for tax year 2024 up until your income tax filing deadline including extensions.

Tax treatment. Contributions are tax-deductible, including those made to employee accounts. You can deduct the lesser of your contributions or 25% of compensation, subject to the compensation cap ($345,000 in 2024 and $350,000 in 2025). If you’re self-employed, your deduction is capped at 25% of your net self-employment income.

Calculating contribution limits for a SEP IRA plan

If the IRS considers the employees eligible to participate in the plan, an employer must contribute on their behalf, and those contributions must be an equal percentage of compensation to their own. This rule requiring equal contributions as a percentage of compensation is why a SEP IRA is generally best for self-employed people or small-business owners with few or no employees.

For 2024, employer contributions to an employee’s SEP-IRA cannot exceed the lesser of $69,000 or 25% of the employee’s compensation or net self-employment earnings, with a $345,000 limit on compensation that can be used to factor in the contribution. In this context, net self-employment income is net profit less half of your self-employment taxes paid and your SEP contribution. In 2025, the contribution limit and limit on compensation both rise by $5,000 increasing to $70,000 and $350,000 respectively.

Elective salary deferrals and catch-up contributions are not permitted in SEP plans.

Solo 401(k): What is a solo 401(k) and how much can you contribute? 

One may be the loneliest number, but it can pay off with a solo 401(k); it is similar to a standard 401(k) except that you are the only person in the plan, with some exceptions.

A one-participant 401(k) plan is sometimes called a solo 401(k), solo-k, uni-k or a one-participant k. This plan isn’t new and it has the same rules and requirements as any other 401(k) plan. What is different is that this 401(k) plan covers a business owner with no employees, or that person and his/her spouse.

Who can contribute: A self-employed business owner with no employees or a gig worker participating in an employer’s 401(k) who also has a side business.

Maximum Contribution: The maximum amount a self-employed individual can contribute to a solo 401(k) for 2024 (not counting catch-up contributions for those age 50 and over) is $69,000 for 2024 and $70,000 in 2025. Individuals 50 and older can add an extra $7,500 per year in “catch-up” contributions, bringing the total to $76,500 in 2024 and $77,500 in 2025. Whether you’re permitted to contribute the maximum, though, will be determined by your self-employment income.

In 2025, people ages 60 to 63 have a higher catch-up contribution limit of $11,250 bringing the possible maximum contribution to $81,250.

Contribution deadline: Contributions must be made by the tax filing deadline or extension of the employer’s return.

How to open a solo 401(k): A solo 401(k) can be opened through most online brokers and requires a valid Employer Identification Number (EIN). Once the plan balance is $250,000 or more, you must file an annual report on Form 5500-SF with the IRS at the end of a given year.

Calculating contribution limits in a one-participant 401(k) plan

Business owners can legally ‘double-dip’ and make contributions as an employee and employer to a solo 401(k) plan. The owner can contribute both elective deferrals and the employee nonelective contribution to their solo 401(k).

Computing the limit for nonelective contributions is simple. When figuring the contribution limit, compensation is your “earned income,” which is defined as net earnings from self-employment after deducting both one-half of your self-employment tax and contributions for yourself.

The limit on compensation that can be used to factor your contribution is $345,000 in 2024 and $350,000 in 2025.

SEP IRA vs. solo 401(k) — which is better?

At first glance, these plans may seem similar. But dig down into the weeds, and you’ll find differences that could add up over the years. The solo 401(k) plan might be a better fit for side hustlers or part-time gig workers since you can borrow from the plan if you get in a jam, you can save at a faster rate, and you can invest in a company’s 401(k) plan if you also have a regular job. On the other hand, if there’s any possibility you might hire an employee, a SEP IRA is a better bet.

Why a SEP IRA may be the better choice:

Easier to administer: SEP IRAs have the same contribution limits but no annual reporting to the IRS.

Flexibility: You don’t have to commit to contributing every year. You can reduce contributions in lean years and increase contributions when profits are up.

Optional Roth feature is allowed. The Secure Act 2.0 allows employers to offer a Roth feature but is not required to do so. You are now able to designate Roth treatment to SEP contributions. This change is recent and there are still many issues that need clarification.

Why a solo 401(k) may be the better choice:

Self-employed people may be able to save more in a solo 401(k) than they can in a SEP IRA. Solo 401(k)s let you make both employee and employer contributions, meaning you can contribute up to $23,000 for 2024 and $23,500 (or $30,500 if you’re 50 or older in 2024 and $31,000 in 2025) as an employee, even if that is 100% of your self-employed earnings for the year, and you can also contribute 20% of your net self-employment income. Your total contributions can’t exceed your self-employment income for the year, up to a total of $69,000 for both types of contributions or $76,500 if age 50 or older in 2024 and those limits increase to $70,000 and $77,500

In 2025, people ages 60 to 63 have a higher catch-up contribution limit of $11,250 bringing the possible maximum contribution to $81,250.

Maximize your savings opportunities: If you work for a company with a retirement plan and have a freelance income, contribute to both. But keep in mind that if you’re side-gigging, employee 401(k) limits apply by person, rather than by plan. That means if you’re also participating in a 401(k) at your day job, the limit applies to contributions across all plans, not each individual plan.

Tax advantages: You can opt for the traditional 401(k), and take a deduction for contributions and reduce your income. The alternative is the Roth solo 401(k), which offers no initial tax break but allows you to take distributions in retirement tax-free.

Choosing between a traditional or Roth solo 401(k) is part guess work. In general, a Roth is a better option if you expect your income to be higher in retirement and/or you expect tax liability to be higher in the future. You should take the deduction now if you think your income will go down in retirement, or you expect tax liabilities to remain the same or lower.

Don’t forget to factor in how your income in retirement will impact if you are subject to the income related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) for Medicare Parts B and D. Distributions from Roth accounts are generally not considered taxable income and don’t affect your IRMAA liability.

Spousal exception to the no employee rule: A spouse can be added to the solo 401k plan whether they act as a W-2 employee, or an owner in the business. This effectively doubles your solo 401k contribution limits for your household. Your spouse can either open their own solo 401k plan separate from yours, or get added to your existing plan with separate bank and brokerage accounts.

Bottom line

You can’t go wrong investing in a SEP IRA or solo 401(k). They both offer tax-deferred growth and an opportunity to make Roth contributions. Contribution limits for both types of accounts are generous and neither creates a large administrative burden.

The solo 401(k) would be my choice if I had no employees. The ability to make catch-up contributions gives this account a higher contribution limit and you can add your spouse, if their participation meets IRS requirements, and double your maximum contributions.

A SEP IRA has many of the great features of a solo 401(k) and allows employees to participate making it a great option for small business owners. The ability to lower or forgo contributions when profits are down gives an employer more flexibility to respond to market conditions.

While the past cannot guarantee future outcomes, it remains our most reliable resource for understanding market behavior. Previously, I outlined how Monte Carlo simulations can be used to estimate these probabilities. But relying solely on one method is limiting. Diversifying the ways we calculate probabilities adds robustness to the analysis.

In this article, I will delve deeply into three additional methods for calculating probabilities: Hidden Markov Models (HMM), seasonality-based probabilities, and implied probabilities derived from options prices. Each method has distinct advantages and complements the Monte Carlo approach, providing a comprehensive framework for assessing Credit Put Spreads.

1. Hidden Markov Models (HMM): Unveiling Hidden Market Dynamics

Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are a sophisticated machine learning technique designed to analyze time-series data. They operate on the assumption that observed data (e.g., ticker prices) are generated by an underlying set of “hidden states” that cannot be directly observed. These states represent distinct market conditions, such as bullish trends, bearish trends, or periods of low volatility.

How HMM Works

1. Defining Observations and States:
   • The observed data in this context are the historical closing prices of the ticker.
   • The hidden states are abstract conditions influencing price movements. For example:
     • State 1 (Bullish): Higher probabilities of upward price movements.
     • State 2 (Bearish): Higher probabilities of downward price movements.
     • State 3 (Neutral): Limited price movement or consolidation.
        
2. Training the Model:
   • The HMM is trained on historical price data to learn the transition probabilities between states and the likelihood of observing specific price changes within each state.
   • For example, the model might learn that a bullish state is likely to transition to a neutral state 30% of the time, and remain bullish 70% of the time.
      
3. Making Predictions:
   • Once trained, the HMM can estimate the current state of the market and use this information to predict future price movements.
   • It calculates the probability of the ticker being above a specific threshold on a given date by analyzing likely state transitions and their associated price changes.
      

Advantages of HMM in Options Trading

• Pattern Recognition: HMM excels at identifying non-linear patterns in price movements, which are often overlooked by simpler models.
• Dynamic Analysis: Unlike static models, HMM adapts to changing market conditions by incorporating state transitions.
• Probability Estimation: For a Credit Put Spread, HMM provides a probabilistic measure of whether the underlying will remain above the short strike based on historical market behavior.

By capturing hidden dynamics, HMM offers a more nuanced view of market probabilities, making it a valuable tool for assessing risk and reward in Credit Put Spreads.

2. Seasonality-Based Probabilities: Unlocking Historical Patterns

Seasonality refers to recurring patterns in price movements influenced by factors such as economic cycles, investor behavior, or external events. In options trading, seasonality-based probabilities quantify how often a ticker’s price has exceeded a certain percentage of its current value over a specific time horizon.

How to Calculate Seasonality-Based Probabilities

1. Define the Threshold:
   • The threshold is expressed as a percentage relative to the current price (e.g., -2%, +0%, +2%). This normalization ensures the probability calculation is independent of the absolute price level.
      
2. Analyze Historical Data:
   • For a given holding period (e.g., 30 days), calculate the percentage change in price for each historical observation.
   • Example: If the current price is $100, and the threshold is +2%, count how often the price exceeded $102 after 30 days in the historical data.
      
3. Aggregate the Results:
   • Divide the number of times the threshold was exceeded by the total number of observations to calculate the probability.
   • Example: If the price exceeded the threshold in 70 out of 100 instances, the probability is 70%.
      

Applications in Credit Put Spreads

Seasonality-based probabilities answer the question: “In similar conditions, how often has this ticker remained above the breakeven?” This approach is particularly useful for ETFs, which often exhibit more predictable patterns than individual stocks. For example, certain sectors might perform better during specific times of the year, providing an additional layer of insight.
 

Limitations to Consider

• Seasonality probabilities rely entirely on historical data and assume that past patterns will persist. While this is often true for ETFs, it may be less reliable for individual stocks or during periods of market disruption.

3. Implied Probabilities from Options Prices: Extracting Market Sentiment

Options prices are more than just numbers; they encapsulate the collective beliefs of market participants about future price movements. By analyzing the prices of puts and calls across various strikes for a given expiration date, we can derive the implied probabilities of the ticker being in specific price ranges.
 

Steps to Calculate Implied Probabilities

1. Collect Options Data:
   • Obtain the bid-ask prices for puts and calls at different strike prices for the desired expiration date.
2. Calculate Implied Volatility:
   • Use the options prices to derive the implied volatility (IV) for each strike. IV reflects the market’s expectations of future price volatility.
3. Estimate Probabilities:
   • For each strike, calculate the probability of the ticker being at or above that level by using IV and the Black-Scholes model (or similar methods).
   • The probabilities are then aggregated to construct a distribution of expected prices at expiration.
      

Why Implied Probabilities Matter

• Market Consensus: Implied probabilities reflect what the market “thinks” about the future, offering a forward-looking perspective.
• Dynamic Adjustments: Unlike historical methods, implied probabilities adapt in real-time to changes in market sentiment, such as news events or macroeconomic data.
   

Application to Credit Put Spreads

For a Credit Put Spread, implied probabilities can answer questions such as: “What is the market-implied likelihood that the ticker will remain above the short strike?” This insight helps traders align their strategies with prevailing market sentiment.

Conclusion

By integrating these three methods—Hidden Markov Models, seasonality-based probabilities, and implied probabilities from options prices—into my existing Monte Carlo framework, I’ve developed a robust system for evaluating Credit Put Spreads. This approach enables a comprehensive analysis of Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Credit Put Spreads among a selection of ETFs, filtering for:

• Gain/loss ratios within specific thresholds,
• Expiration dates within a defined range,
• A minimum credit of $0.50.
   

The result is what I like to call a “stellar map” of selected spreads:

accompanied by a summary table:

These tools provide clarity and actionable insights, helping traders identify the best trades—those offering the highest probability of success while maximizing potential returns relative to risk.
 

Looking ahead, the next step will involve calculating the expected value ($EV) of these trades, combining probabilities and potential outcomes to further refine the selection process.

The ultimate goal remains the same: to stack the odds in our favor—not by predicting exact prices, but by estimating probabilities with precision and rigor.

Stay tuned as I continue refining these methods and expanding their applications!