Storage steps into the spotlight

Global lithium demand reached 1.6 million metric tons in 2025, up more than 30 percent year-over-year and in line with Albemarle’s prior projections. Demand growth outpaced supply, tightening inventories and lifting prices into year-end.

For 2026, Albemarle now expects global lithium demand to rise to between 1.8 million and 2.2 million metric tons — growth of 15 to 40 percent — driven by both EV adoption and accelerating deployments of stationary energy storage systems (ESS).

While global EV sales climbed 21 percent in 2025, energy storage was the standout. ESS demand surged more than 80 percent year-over-year, with strong growth across China, North America and Europe.

China, which accounted for roughly 40 percent of ESS shipments, saw demand rise 60 percent. North American shipments jumped 90 percent, reflecting grid stability needs and rising electricity consumption linked to data centers and artificial intelligence. European shipments more than doubled as countries expanded renewables and sought greater energy security.

Demand outside the three major regions grew 120 percent and represented more than 20 percent of global ESS shipments, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Australia emerging as key growth markets.

The shift is already visible in Albemarle’s financials. In 2025, energy storage volumes reached 235,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, up 14 percent year-over-year and above the high end of the company’s guidance range.

Fourth quarter energy storage net sales rose 23 percent from a year earlier, while segment EBITDA climbed 25 percent, supported by higher lithium pricing and cost improvements.

CFO Neal Sheorey said Albemarle’s updated 2026 scenarios reflect both pricing and operational gains.

Cost discipline, portfolio reset

After weathering a sharp downturn in lithium prices over the past two years, Albemarle has focused on strengthening its balance sheet and lowering its cost base.

In 2025, the company delivered approximately US$450 million in run-rate cost and productivity improvements and is targeting an additional US$100 million to US$150 million in 2026.

Albemarle also announced it will idle operations at its Kemerton lithium hydroxide plant in Western Australia, citing a structural cost gap between Western and Chinese conversion assets.

“There is a gap there between China and the West,” Masters said, pointing to higher labor, power and waste management costs in Australia. Idling the plant is expected to improve adjusted EBITDA beginning in the second quarter, with no impact on sales volumes.

At the same time, Albemarle is streamlining non-core assets.

The company closed the sale of its stake in the Eurocat joint venture in January and expects to complete the sale of a majority stake in its refining catalysts business in the first quarter. Together, the transactions are expected to generate approximately US$660 million in pre-tax proceeds.

“We are committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit profile,” Masters said, adding that deleveraging and disciplined capital allocation remain priorities.

Growth with limited new capital

Despite pulling back on large-scale capital spending, Albemarle expects to deliver a five-year compound annual growth rate of roughly 15 percent in energy storage sales volumes, building on a 25 percent CAGR over the past four years.

Incremental expansions at the Greenbushes mine in Australia, yield improvements at the Salar de Atacama in Chile and higher utilization at the Wodgina joint venture are expected to support growth with minimal additional capital.

Looking ahead, Masters said the company is better positioned to navigate lithium’s still-maturing cycle.

“We’ve been through two cycles since the advent of EVs,” he said, describing the market as early in its development from a commodity perspective.

With stationary storage now emerging as a second structural demand pillar alongside EVs, Albemarle’s revised outlook suggests the lithium market’s next phase will be shaped as much by grid resilience and energy security as by transportation electrification — broadening the base of demand for years to come.

Lithium prices rebound sharply in early 2026

Lithium prices have surged since the start of 2026, underscoring the market’s renewed volatility.

According to Fastmarkets, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate on the seaborne market climbed from about US$11 per kilogram in early December to more than US$16 per kilogram by early January, a jump of nearly 50 percent in a matter of weeks.

The rally has been driven by tightening supply, including delays to the reopening of CATL’s (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) Jianxiawo lepidolite mine and maintenance at other production facilities, alongside aggressive restocking tied to long-term contract negotiations.

Speculative buying has amplified the move, with bullish sentiment and geopolitical risk adding to momentum. At the same time, thin spot liquidity reflects a cautious market, as buyers and sellers hesitate to commit amid rapid price swings.

Spodumene prices have followed suit, rising above US$2,000 per metric ton in January, levels not seen since October 2023. The rebound has improved margins for Australian producers, many of whom curtailed output when prices fell below US$900 per metric ton. Sustained pricing at current levels could prompt a wave of mine restarts, potentially easing supply tightness later this year.

Still, Fastmarkets cautioned that prices may be running ahead of fundamentals.

“Lithium prices appear to have moved ahead of the fundamentals, propelled by speculative buying, bullish sentiment and a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk,” wrote Paul Lusty. “The key takeaway is to brace for more volatility.”

Sirios Resources (TSXV:SOI,OTCQB:SIREF) is a Québec-based gold exploration and development company focused on high-potential projects in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region. Its flagship Cheechoo gold project ranks among the largest in the province by resource size and benefits from favourable geology, near-surface mineralization, and existing infrastructure, including road access, power lines, and proximity to the Éléonore mine. Sirios is advancing Cheechoo through systematic drilling, resource expansion, and technical studies, aiming to progress the project toward a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA).

In December 2025, Sirios completed a transformational combination with OVI Mining, creating a district-scale gold platform anchored by Cheechoo and complemented by the Corvet Est and PLEX projects. The transaction integrates Sirios into the Osisko development ecosystem, strengthening the leadership team with proven mine-building and capital markets expertise while maintaining the company’s deep geological knowledge of the James Bay region.

With over 30 years of continuous exploration in James Bay and strong partnerships with local and Indigenous communities, Sirios is well-positioned to create value through disciplined project advancement and exploration-driven growth. The company’s combination of experience, strategic assets, and community engagement underpins its long-term growth strategy.

Company Highlights

• Flagship Cheechoo gold project hosts approximately 3 million ounces of gold, including 1.3 million ounces indicated and 1.7 million ounces inferred, including additional underground resources
• Located in Eeyou Istchee James Bay, Québec, a Tier-1 mining jurisdiction with strong government and community support
• Low strip ratio (2.9:1) and high gold recoveries (92 percent) support attractive open-pit development potential at Cheechoo
• Strategic combination with OVI Mining brings Osisko-backed leadership, capital markets strength and additional district-scale exploration assets
• Well-funded with recent treasury additions, supporting advancement of Cheechoo toward a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) and ongoing exploration across the portfolio

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Greenland, minerals and power politics

The panel then turned to Greenland, a region increasingly viewed through the lens of critical minerals and Arctic security.

Giustra dismissed claims that Greenland poses an immediate security risk from Russia or China, arguing instead that resource competition is the real driver. “Greenland has always been open for business,” he said.

“The idea that the US needs to own it to access minerals is simply false.”

Instead, Giustra described Washington’s posture as coercive. “It’s essentially putting a gun to Greenland’s head and saying, ‘We want to buy you.’”

For mining investors, Greenland represents both opportunity and risk.

The island hosts significant deposits of rare earth elements, graphite and other strategic metals essential to clean energy technologies, defence systems and advanced manufacturing. But political uncertainty, including pressure from major powers, complicates development timelines and capital allocation.

Macgregor argued that US ambitions in Greenland and Venezuela reflect more optics than strategy. “This administration loves big gestures,” he said. “But unless you control what happens on the ground, nothing really changes.”

Europe’s energy crisis and deindustrialization

Lottaz traced Europe’s economic strain, particularly Germany’s deindustrialization, back to energy policy decisions, including the shutdown of nuclear power and the loss of Russian gas supplies.

“Political leadership in Europe is increasingly detached from national interests,” he said. “What matters more is positioning within EU and transatlantic institutions.”

That disconnect has direct consequences for resource markets, particularly energy-intensive industries such as metals refining, steel production and battery manufacturing, which depend on stable, affordable power.

Macgregor added that many global institutions, including NATO and the European Union, are approaching “block obsolescence,” forcing investors to rethink long-held assumptions about stability.

Critical minerals and the risk of conflict

As the discussion widened, Giustra pointed to critical minerals as one of the most dangerous fault lines in the emerging world order.

“The intense competition between China and the West over critical minerals is a major factor,” he said. “These are not just economic assets — they’re strategic weapons.”

China currently dominates processing of rare earth elements, lithium chemicals and battery-grade materials, giving it leverage over Western supply chains. Efforts by the US, Europe and allies to secure alternative sources — from Greenland to Africa to South America — are reshaping investment flows across the mining sector.

Giustra warned that history shows transitions between declining and rising powers are rarely peaceful. “The danger of conflict during a shift in world order is extremely high,” he said. “We may already be setting the stage for something far worse.”

Is there room for optimism?

Despite the grim outlook, Lottaz offered cautious optimism, arguing that even strained international systems retain some restraining influence.

“Everyone still claims to operate under the UN Charter, even when they violate it,” he said. “That tells us the idea of international law still matters.”

He also pointed to restraint in conflicts such as Ukraine, noting that NATO has avoided direct war with Russia. “There is still rationality at work. No one wants Armageddon.”

Macgregor closed with a stark reminder for investors and policymakers alike. “Rules only exist if someone enforces them,” he said. “As American power recedes, we’re entering a far more competitive and uncertain world.”

For the resource sector, that uncertainty translates into higher geopolitical risk, but also strategic opportunity. As governments scramble to secure supply chains for energy transition metals, defence materials and critical infrastructure, mining projects once considered peripheral are moving to the centre of global power politics.

Supercycle review

Ultimately, what is needed is a shift in mindset. Hall specified that the first point that has to be recognised is that bull markets do not mean that everyone is making money.

“High prices produce a false sense of security. They made marginal assets look competitive,” he said. “They mask permitting challenges, metallurgy issues, infrastructure gaps in management, weaknesses and too much capital changed too many projects simply because the spreadsheet said it works. Investors have need to learn from that in today’s market.”

Momentum is not directly proportional to skill, and government involvement does not eliminate risk.

He cited 2011 as the last super cycle that created enormous opportunities, but also created enormous mistakes.

At the time, companies jumped into spending on huge projects and capital expenditure blowout, not accounting for returns.

Some companies also lost control and went all in on mergers and acquisitions, while developers “pursued production growth for the sake of growth.”

The sector focused on volume, therefore burning investors. The market funded every project that screams as economic at high spot prices.

This lack of discipline led to over a decade’s worth of rebuilding mining credibility.

Now, the sector has changed. This time, companies that generate durable margins, stick to realistic timelines, manage risk and focus on humility will be rewarded.

It’s all in discipline.

Advice for companies

• Concrete de-risk plans with achievable milestones
• Strict capital discipline, especially on operating and construction costs
• Management teams with experience in leadership, permitting, engineering and community relations
• Productive offtakes

“Capital is no longer betting solely on geology. It’s betting on execution,” the CEO stated. “Investors want to see alignment with users, so institutional investors are screening for policy alignment projects that strengthen domestic supply chains, support energy security and fit federal or state strategic priorities.”

Above all, across all this is transparency. Hall said that it is a must and called it “the new currency of trust in this sector.”

Advice for investors

“Many deposits look promising, far fewer have teams capable of construction and operations,” Hall said, adding that while high metal prices do help the sector, they also encourage a wave of marginal projects that do not deserve capital.

Maintaining high standards amidst high prices is vital. He advised investors to ask the following questions before making decisions:

• Does the project work within conservative price limits or not? Does it have structural advantages?
• Does it have grade, jurisdiction, scale and production cost?
• Does the project matter? Does it solve a supply deficit?
• Does it serve a strategic need, or is it simply additive but unnecessary?
• Can management actually build it?

Making the right moves

Hall likened his industry recommendations to that of a chess game: make decisive moves and manage risks. It’s not just about what’s in front of you; it’s how you can win.

The industry is entering a new era where the investment cycle is not only driven by numbers and market forces, but by strategic necessity.

It is also the first time in decades that government capital, institutional capital and private capital are moving in the same direction, posing bigger opportunities.

Companies must learn to listen and execute to remain in the game for the next decade of resource development, and investors should come into the space with clear expectations.

“I think the ultimate word is check your discipline, because your discipline and your expectations need to be in line and more in tune than ever before,” Hall told companies.

“And for investors out there listening, you have to remember this: bull markets don’t make people rich by default; they reveal who already have the discipline.”

Significant tailwinds supporting silver

Over the past five years, the silver price has largely stagnated, trading between US$20 and US$25 per ounce until mid-2024 when the white metal crossed the US$30 mark. Even then, the price mostly held steady until 2025, when it crossed the US$35 mark in June, then passed US$40 in September and US$50 in October.

However, the most significant rise came at the start of December, when momentum took over, sending silver on a historic run that pushed it to a record high of US$116 by the end of January.

Behind these meteoric gains was a highly volatile silver market, which, despite strong fundamentals, became highly speculative and attractive to investors seeking an alternative to gold, which is also trading at all-time highs.

“You buy gold to prevent losing money, and you buy silver to make money, to buy more gold,” Spina said.

Silver is in the midst of a six-year structural supply deficit, with the expectation that it will continue through 2026.

A key driver of this deficit is silver’s growing role in industrial applications. Although its biggest gains have come from its use in solar panel production, it’s also important to several other sectors, including automotive and defense.

“We wouldn’t have a modern civilization without silver. It’s used in a myriad of different places, and what is interesting now is that silver is very critical to the national defense of the US, of China, of big superpowers. So it’s becoming weaponized,” Spina explained. He noted that the US designated silver a critical mineral in 2025, placing it alongside copper for strategic purposes, and suggested that stockpiling is likely underway.

In addition to demand driving the silver price, Spina also noted that investors who had been absent from the market for many years moved into net-buying positions last year, which has helped to accelerate the market.

“Its more serious than the gold market, because silver is so essential in our daily lives,” Spina said.

While demand increases, a serious situation is developing on the supply side. The majority of silver produced today comes as a byproduct from mining other metals like copper and zinc.

Jessome outlined how perilous the supply side is, noting that in 2025 there were just 52 primary silver mines worldwide; by the end of 2026, that number is expected to fall to 46, and in 2027 to 39.

With so few mines and high prices, the expectation is that there would be new production set to come online, and although there are some in the pipeline, including Jessome’s Silver Tiger, the reality is that starting a new mine is fraught with challenges. He noted that, from the first drill hole to production, the average time is 17 years.

“From that first drill hole to a commercial mine, it’s one in 1,000. So if you think that we’re going to solve this 39 in the next year, it’s not easy, it’s hard,” Jessome told the VRIC audience.

He continued to explain that, regardless of what happens with the price, people don’t realize there’s not enough silver.

Bull markets, retractions and getting ahead

Even though silver’s fundamentals support high prices, the questions on many lips throughout VRIC were: ‘Is it too much too soon?’ and ‘Is it a bull market or is it a bubble?’

The consensus was that the metal remains in a bull market, but is exhibiting some bubble-like characteristics; investors can expect corrections, but silver will likely maintain momentum.

“We’re multiple percent above the 200 day moving average. This is not something that’s sustainable. If we continue at this pace, it would suck all the money from the markets into this one asset. It’s not likely to continue,” Krauth said just days prior to a significant correction that took the silver price back below US$70.

He pointed to the 2001 to 2011 bull market: silver rose from US$4 to nearly US$50, but along the way, there were corrections. “There were five corrections of 15 percent or more. The average correction was 30 percent. That would take us to US$75, US$80 right now,” Krauth emphasized to the audience at VRIC.

While the expert explained that a silver correction of that magnitude wouldn’t be shocking, he also pointed out that miners would still be pretty happy at those prices.

Given the market volatility, Spina echoed much of Krauth’s belief that there is reason for investors to be excited but also urged caution, commenting, “I would be very, very cautious in trying to trade this, especially with leverage or anything like that, but I do think that we’re in the revaluation phase. Silver could go a lot higher, but along the way, we can get some very vicious pullbacks, and so one has to be ready for those events.’

Smirnova urged calm, and that she was hopeful for a correction, agreeing with Krauth that the parabolic trajectory of silver wasn’t sustainable, and saying she sees gold market as more steady.

She also suggested that, rather than chasing opportunities, investors should be patient and wait for them to come to them, rather than being fearful in such a volatile market.

“I would urge people to think, sit back, and think about the reasons why silver ran in the first place, and whether those reasons are continuing right now, and they will. I think the fundamentals haven’t changed for silver, using corrections as opportunities to reload, to enter, to buy things that you know you like as an investor,” Smirnova said.

Investor takeaway

Overall, the panel was in agreement that the main factors fueling a strong silver market, supply and demand, investment, and a bifurcated market, aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Demand for silver goes beyond investment and is set to play a crucial role in the energy transition, AI and technology, and national defense. However, they also agreed that it’s probably run up to fast, and needs a correction, which started to happen on January 29, but none expected the bull market to come to an end.

Smirnova did an excellent job of putting the changing silver market into perspective for investors.

“We mine and produce, between scrap and mining supply, 1 billion ounces a year at US$30. That was a US$30 billion market. At US$100 it’s a US$100 billion market. It’s nothing. We have companies trading at trillion-dollar valuations in the market. The whole silver market is $100 billion a year, so it really does not take a lot of money to move the price, and that’s why I think it’s gone from US$30 to US$100 in no time at all,” she said.

While these price shifts don’t require significant capital inflows, they make a significant difference across the sector. Krauth noted that the price of silver hasn’t really been factored in for silver developers or producers because their projections are currently based on prices that are two-thirds lower.

“Almost nobody ever uses spot prices. They’re arguably two-thirds below spot price,’ he said.

‘So when the next few quarters come in and the market starts to realize what kind of cash these projects are generating, I think that’s when the reality will start to set in,” Krauth added.

The panel was largely optimistic that opportunities will continue to arise in the silver market. They noted that physical silver prices tend to be more volatile, but there are safer options for investors who don’t want to miss out.

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$69,837.08, down by 1.1 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, February 9, 2026.

Chart via TradingView

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$2,049.31, down by 3.5 percent over the last 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$1.41, down by 3.5 over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$84.50, down by 3.9 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Tether deepens gold push with US$150M stake in Gold.com

Tether has made a US$150 million investment in Gold.com, acquiring roughly a 12 pecent minority stake as it moves to broaden access to both tokenized and physical gold.

The deal sets up a long-term partnership that will integrate Tether’s gold-backed token, XAU₮, into Gold.com’s platform and explore ways for customers to buy physical gold using digital currencies such as USDT and the newly launched, federally regulated USA₮.

The move comes as gold prices push above US$5,000 an ounce, reinforcing demand for hard-asset exposure amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Tether said the gold-backed stablecoin market has nearly tripled over the past year to more than US$5.5 billion, with XAU₮ accounting for over 60 percent of total market value.

The company says XAU₮ is backed 1:1 by allocated physical gold, with about 140 tons in total held in secure vaults and each token linked to a specific London Good Delivery bar.

Bitcoin breaks below US$70,000 as liquidations accelerate

Bitcoin fell sharply this week, breaking below the closely watched US$70,000 level and trading as low as roughly US$60,300 before stabilizing near US$65,000

The US$70,000 mark had become a crowded positioning zone, and once it failed, mechanically driven selling took over.

In addition, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 9, its lowest reading in nearly four years, while futures open interest slid toward multi-month lows, signaling defensive positioning rather than dip-buying. “

South Korea tightens scrutiny after Bithumb’s distribution error

South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service has moved to strengthen oversight of crypto exchanges following a major error at Bithumb that briefly flooded user accounts with billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoin.

The incident occurred when customers were mistakenly credited with roughly 2,000 BTC each instead of small promotional rewards, triggering panic selling and a sharp price dislocation on the exchange.

Bitcoin prices on Bithumb fell as much as 30 percent below global levels before trading and withdrawals were halted.

Authorities said the episode exposed “vulnerabilities and risks” in virtual asset systems and raised concerns about internal controls and reserve backing. “It is a case that shows the structural problems of electronic systems for virtual assets,” said Lee Chan-jin, governor of South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service.

Regulators plan to introduce tougher penalties for IT failures and expand monitoring tools that flag suspicious trading patterns in real time.

Of the more than 620,000 bitcoins mistakenly distributed, authorities said nearly all have since been recovered.

FDIC settles FOIA fight over crypto ‘pause letters’

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has agreed to pay US$188,440 in legal fees and drop its effort to withhold crypto-related “pause letters,” settling a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit tied to alleged debanking practices.

The case stemmed from a records request filed by History Associates on behalf of Coinbase, seeking documents that showed how banks were allegedly pressured to halt or limit crypto activities.

A federal court ruled last year that the FDIC violated FOIA by categorically withholding the letters rather than reviewing them individually.

“We successfully uncovered dozens of crypto ‘pause letters’—indisputable proof of OCP2.0,” Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal wrote on X after the settlement.