Key Fed meeting takeaways

It’s worth noting that although the Fed’s cut went through, three out of 12 officials voted against it, a situation that hasn’t happened since September 2019. Two wanted rates to stay the same, while Governor Stephen Miran was calling for a 50 basis point reduction.

Miran took his spot on the Fed’s Board of Governors in September after being nominated by President Donald Trump, who has been critical of the Fed — and Chair Jerome Powell in particular — for not lowering rates as quickly as he would like. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and it’s anticipated that his replacement will follow Trump’s vision. Kevin Hassett of the National Economic Council is said to be a strong contender, with 84 percent of respondents to a CNBC survey saying they think it will be him.

While the Fed’s rate decision was in focus this week, market watchers are also closely eyeing its post-meeting statement, as well as press conference comments from Powell, to figure out what the central bank’s policy will look like heading into the new year and beyond.

The latest dot plot shows that Fed officials expect only one rate cut in 2026, plus another in 2027. That’s unchanged from projections made in September, but experts have pointed out that the dot plot also highlights the growing divide between Federal Open Market Committee members.

Another important facet is the news that the Fed will start buying short-dated bonds as of Friday (December 12), with an initial round involving purchasing US$40 billion worth of treasuries per month. This move comes after the end of quantitative tightening measures on December 1, and is being looked at as a step in the direction of quantitative easing.

‘This is basically another way of saying quantitative easing, and we’re going to continue to print money,’ said David Erfle of Junior Miner Junky. ‘The Federal Reserve is in a situation where, ‘Hey, we’ve got to continue to issue new debt to pay off the old debt.’ So now the yield curve is going to steepen as the Fed pivots toward these treasury bills, and private investors are going to have to absorb more duration risk. So basically, this means loose monetary conditions are on the way, and that’s positive for both gold and especially now silver.’

Will the silver price keep rising?

With that in mind, what exactly is next for the silver price?

I’ve been asking guests on our channel where the metal goes from here, and many have said it’s becoming harder and harder to predict as silver enters uncharted territory.

Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor said that a ‘relatively conservative’ outlook for 2026 would be US$70. However, he also emphasized that higher levels are possible:

‘It’s taken 45 years for (silver) to finally break out through that US$50 level. And so we’re in uncharted waters, uncharted territory, and this being the kind of market that we’re in — fundamentally, as well as macroeconomically, as well as geopolitically — I think odds are silver is going to continue to climb higher.

‘And I think it’s going to convert a lot of doubters into into believers that silver is going to go on setting new record highs, and that it’s still relatively early in this market. We’re going to see it perform very, very well for several more years.’

For his part, Erfle weighed in on upside and downside for silver, outlining how the precious metal could get close to the US$100 level. Here’s what he said:

‘If you consider the supply/demand fundamentals, this is a fifth year of a supply deficit in silver, which has constantly been outpacing supply.

‘All these forces have converged to take the silver price so much higher, and looking at upside targets, the next target is the US$66, US$68 area, and then US$80 to US$83 if the momentum continues into January. But the long-term measured target of the cup-and-handle breakout is US$96.’

I’ll be having more conversations about silver next week with experts like Gareth Soloway, John Rubino and John Feneck, so drop a comment on our YouTube channel if you have any questions.

Silver’s price history since 2011

Silver price chart, December 11, 2010, to December 11, 2025.

Chart via SilverPrice.org.

After its 2011 peak, silver’s price pulled back over the following years before settling between US$15 and US$20 for much of the second half of last decade. An upward trend in the silver price started in mid-2020, when it was spurred on by the economic uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The price of silver breached the key US$26 level in early August 2020, and soon after tested US$30. However, it failed to make substantial progress past that.

In the spring of 2023, the silver price surged by 30 percent, briefly rising above US$26 in early May; however, the precious metal cratered back down to US$20.90 in early October. Later that month, silver advanced toward the US$23 level on the back of safe-haven demand due to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.

Following remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speculation about interest rate reductions sent the price of silver to US$25.48 on November 30, its highest point for the fourth quarter.

After starting 2024 on a low note, the white metal saw gains in March on rising Fed rate cut expectations. The resulting upward momentum led silver to reach a Q1 high of US$25.62 on March 20 before breaking through the US$30 mark on May 17. The silver price reached a then 12 year high of US$32.33 on May 20.

In Q3, the metal’s price slid down below the US$27 mark to as low as US$26.64 by August 7 alongside its industrial cousin copper. Heading into Q4 2024, silver reversed course to the upside, tracking the record breaking moves in the gold price. Silver once again breached the US$30 level on September 13 and continued higher.

On October 21, the silver price moved as high as US$34.20 during the trading day, up more than 48 percent since the start of the year and its highest level in 12 years. However, silver spent the rest of the year in decline, bottoming out at US$28.94 on December 30.

Silver’s price performance in 2025

Silver price chart, January 1 to December 11, 2025.

The silver price experienced a momentum shift at the start of 2025, breaking through the US$30 barrier as early as January 5, and reaching US$31.31 by January 29. The metal continued to post gains through much of February and March, climbing to US$32.94 on February 20 and then peaking at its quarterly high of US$34.21 on March 28.

Following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2, silver slumped to below US$30. While the Trump administration’s tariff policies have been largely beneficial for safe-haven assets like precious metals, there were concerns that the threat of tariffs could weaken industrial demand, which could cool price gains in the silver market.

Yet those concerns were pushed to the back burner as recent economic and geopolitical events have raised analysts’ expectations of a September rate cut by the Fed. The benchmark rate has not changed since November 2024.

On June 5, the silver price rose to a 13 year high of US$36.05 in early morning trading, before retreating toward the US$35.50 mark. By June 16, the white metal had broken through the US$37 mark for the first time since May 2011.

In July, increasing geopolitical strife in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine coupled with a positive outlook for China’s solar power industry proved price positive for both silver’s precious metals and industrial angles.

The silver price overtook the US$39 level to reach US$39.24 on July 22.

These same forces, coupled with the nearly unanimous rate cut expectations, launched the price of silver to over US$40 on August 31 for the first time since 2011, and by September 3 it had climbed as high as US$41.45. Silver continued climbing through September, progressively breaking level after level to top US$47 by the month’s end.

The white metal broke its all-time highs in most currencies, including Canadian dollars and Australian dollars, on September 22.

Silver started Q4 by continuing its ascent, breaking through its 2011 peak and topping US$48 on October 3, before climbing above US$51 to beat its US dollar high on October 9.

It continued climbing even higher on the safe-haven demand fundamentals behind its 2025 momentum. Helping drive that demand in October was escalating trade tensions between the US and China, leading to export controls on additional rare earth metals by China and threats of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports by the US.

While silver pulled back to around US$48 in late October, news that the US government shut down had come to an end on November 9 drove the silver price back above US$50.

Silver’s foray above the US$56 level on November 28 came on the back of an outage at the Comex, where trading was briefly halted due to a ‘cooling issue’ at a CyrusOne data center used by the exchange.

Silver continued even higher through early December, and on December 12 the metal set a new highest price of US$64.65 two days after the Fed decided to once again cut interest rates.

Silver supply and demand dynamics

Market watchers are curious as to whether the silver price will continue its upward trajectory in 2025. Only time will tell, and it will depend on the white metal’s ability to remain above the critical US$30 level.

Like other metals, the silver spot price is most heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics. However, as the information above illustrates, the silver price can be highly volatile. That’s partially due to the fact that the metal is subject to both investment and industrial metal demand within global markets.

In other words, it’s bought by investors who want it as a store of wealth, as well as by manufacturers looking to use it for different applications that are incredibly varied. For example, silver has diverse technological applications and is used in devices like batteries and catalysts, but it’s also used in medicine and in the automotive industry.

In terms of supply, the world’s three top producers of the metal are Mexico, China and Peru. Even in those countries silver is usually a by-product — for instance, a mine producing primarily gold or lead might also have silver output.

The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey, put together by Metals Focus, outlines a 0.9 percent increase in global mine production to 819.7 million ounces in 2024. This was in partly the result of a return to operations at Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) Peñasquito mine in Mexico following a suspension of activity brought about by strike action among workers and improved recoveries out of Fresnillo (LSE:FRES,OTC Pink:FNLPF) and MAG Silver’s (TSX:MAG,NYSEAMERICAN:MAG) Juanicipio. Silver output also increased in Australia, Bolivia and the US.

The firm is forecasting a 1.9 percent rise in global silver mine production to 823 million ounces in 2025. Much of that growth is expected to come out of Mexico, and it is also projecting output will rise in Chile and Russia.

Lower production from Australia and Peru will offset some of these gains.

Looking at demand, Metals Focus sees growth in 2025 flatlining as industrial fabrication takes a hit from the global tariff war. This could be tempered by an anticipated rebound in demand from physical investment in silver bars and coins.

The silver market is expected to experience a substantial deficit of 117.6 million ounces in 2025, amounting to the sixth straight year of supply shortage for the metal.

Investor takeaway

Silver has neared US$50 multiple times, including its all-time high, and as momentum continues for the silver price in 2025 investors are wondering if it could reach those heights once again.

While it’s impossible to know for sure what’s next for silver, keeping an eye on the factors driving its performance, including gold’s performance, geopolitics, the economy and industrial demand, will help investors make decisions on when to buy and sell.

1. Imperial Metals (TSX:III)

Year-to-date gain: 333.7 percent
Market cap: C$1.4 billion
Share price: C$7.98

Imperial Metals is a mine development and production company with operations in British Columbia, Canada.

It holds a 30 percent interest in the Red Chris mine in BC’s Golden Triangle, with the remainder owned by Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM). Imperial also fully owns the Mount Polley copper-gold mine, which reopened in June 2022, and the Huckleberry copper mine, which has been under care and maintenance since 2016.

Provincial approvals for a 4 meter raise of the embankment at the Mount Polley tailings storage facility have been the subject of a lawsuit after the Xatśūll First Nation applied for an interim injunction challenging them in April.

A June 30 update reported that the BC Supreme Court had reserved judgment on the case following a four day hearing. The Supreme Court ultimately dismissed the Xatśūll First Nation’s application for the injunction and judicial review of the approvals on August 6. Imperials’ most recent update on the case came on September 3, when the Xatśūll First Nation filed a notice of appeal to overturn the dismissal of the judicial reviews. However, it did not appeal the injunction decision, meaning the company can complete the raise and continue mining at Mount Polley.

On August 29, Imperial announced that it received approval for a permit amendment allowing the company to expand Mount Polley’s operations and extend its operating life, including pit development and expansion of storage areas within the existing mine site footprint.

In the company’s Q3 production report for Red Chris, released on October 23, it indicated that total copper production at the mine increased 10 percent year-over-year to 20.9 million pounds, up from 18.98 million pounds in Q3 2024. Through the first nine months of the year, copper production increased even more, rising 20 percent to 67.51 million pounds from 56.37 million pounds during the same period of 2024.

The most recent update from Imperial came on November 27, when it released an exploration update from its Huckleberry mine, reporting it completed all nine holes of its 2025 diamond drill campaign testing an area southwest of the Main Zone. One hole returned a grade of 0.5 percent copper over 52.7 meters, including an intersection of 0.81 percent copper and 0.23 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold over 22.6 meters.

Shares of Imperial reached a year-to-date high of C$7.95 on December 10.

2. Meridian Mining (TSX:MNO)

Year-to-date gain: 313.33 percent
Market cap: C$656.72 million
Share price: C$1.55

Meridian Mining is an exploration and development company that is currently developing its flagship Cabaçal copper-gold project in Mato Grosso, Brazil. The project license covers a 50 square kilometer area and hosts an 11 kilometer volcanogenic massive sulfide corridor containing gold, copper and silver.

A prefeasibility study released March 10 demonstrates a post-tax base case net present value of US$984 million with an internal rate of return of 61 percent and a payback period of 17 months. The project has a predicted mine life of 10.6 years with total life of mine production of 169,647 metric tons of copper.

The included mineral resource estimate for Cabaçal shows a measured and indicated resource of 204,470 metric tons of contained copper from 51.43 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 0.4 percent. It also hosts significant gold and silver resources.

Additionally, Meridian reported on May 8 that it has hired Ausenco Brazil as the lead engineer to complete a definitive feasibility study for Cabaçal, targeting the first half of 2026 for completion.

Meridian has been carrying out an extensive exploration program at the site as part of the study.

The company announced results from the final phase of the drill program on October 7, when it reported significant copper grades. It highlighted an interval of 1.4 percent copper equivalent over 27.5 meters, including an intersection of 6.1 percent copper equivalent over 6.4 meters.

The company stated that the drill program yielded robust grades of gold, copper and silver mineralization, which will contribute to the mineral resource and reserve upgrades included in the definitive feasibility study. It also reported exploration success at the Cigarra target.

On November 3, Meridian announced that the State of Mato Grosso had formally approved the preliminary license for Cabaçal, which the company stated is the first of three licenses required to commence operations. Meridian said that it would now turn its attention to its application for an installation license. If approved, the installation license would allow the company to begin construction at the site.

Shares of Meridian reached a year-to-date high of C$1.65 on December 4.

3. St. Augustine Gold and Copper (TSX:SAU)

Year-to-date gain: 300 percent
Market cap: C$331.75 million
Share price: C$0.32

St. Augustine Gold and Copper is a development company focused on its King-king copper-gold project in the Philippines’ Davao de Oro province. The project consists of 184 mining claims.

On May 30, St. Augustine entered into an agreement with the National Development Corporation (Nadecor) to acquire a 100 percent interest in Nadecor’s wholly owned subsidiary Kingking Milling, which holds the development rights to King-king. Under the terms of the deal, Nadecor will receive C$9.02 million convertible into 185 million shares.

The project’s exploration and development permits are held by Kingking Mining, which remains a 40/40/20 joint venture between St. Augustine, Nadecor and Queensberry Mining and Development. The release also includes details of new ore sales and royalty agreements between Kingking Milling and Kingking Mining.

On June 18, St. Augustine completed a debt conversion with Queensberry Mining, converting C$1.67 million in debt owed to Queensbury into 25.31 million common shares of St. Augustine at C$0.066 per share.

A follow-up announcement from Queensberry Mining stated that the shares represent a 2.5 percent stake in St. Augustine, increasing Queensberry’s holdings in the company to 52 percent of the total issued and outstanding shares.

As for Q3, on July 31, the company released an updated feasibility study for the project. Based on a copper price of US$4.30 per pound and a gold price of US$2,150 per ounce, the project’s economics included an after-tax net present value of US$4.18 billion, with an internal rate of return of 34.2 percent and a payback period of 1.9 years.

The report estimates a 31 year mine life with average annual production of 96,411 metric tons of payable copper and 185,828 ounces of gold. The six phase development plan will see higher average production in the first five years at 129,000 metric tons of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold.

On October 8, St. Augustine announced that it had engaged with Stantec Consulting and Independent Mining Consultants to produce a definitive feasibility study for Kingking. The company said the study will optimize key recommendations from the pre-feasibility study, including a chloride leach process to improve recovery from low-grade sulfide stockpiles early in the mine life, as well as increased throughput capacity.

Shares of St. Augustine Gold and Copper reached a year-to-date high of C$0.58 on July 29.

4. Trilogy Metals (TSX:TMQ)

Year-to-date gain: 269.23 percent
Market cap: C$1.07 billion
Share price: C$6.24

Trilogy Metals is a polymetallic exploration and development company working to advance its Upper Kobuk mineral projects in Northern Alaska, US, which it owns in a 50/50 joint venture with South32 (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF).

Its most advanced asset is the Arctic copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver project, which is in the feasibility stage.

In an updated feasibility study from February 2023, the company reported annual payable production volumes of 148.68 million pounds of copper, 172.6 million pounds of zinc, 25.75 million pounds of lead, 32,538 ounces of gold and 2.77 million ounces of silver. After tax, the study pegs the project’s net present value at US$1.11 billion, with an internal rate of return of 22.8 percent and a payback period of 3.1 years.

Trilogy’s other key asset is the Bornite copper-cobalt project located 25 kilometers southwest of its Arctic project. The site hosts widespread mineralization and has seen historic exploration dating back to the 1950s.

A preliminary economic assessment for Bornite, dated January 15, established an after-tax net present value of US$393.9 million, with an internal rate of return of 20 percent and a payback period of 4.4 years.

The updated mineral resource included with the report estimates an inferred resource of 6.53 billion pounds of copper with an average grade of 1.42 percent from 208.9 million metric tons of ore.

Trilogy’s Upper Kobuk assets are among the mineral projects dependent on the approval and construction of the Ambler Access Road, a planned 211 kilometer industrial road through Alaska.

Trilogy’s share price saw substantial gains in October after the US Senate repealed a land management plan that prevented the construction of the access road due to environmental concerns.

Additionally, on October 6, Trilogy entered into a binding letter of intent that will see the US Department of Defense (DoD) invest US$17.8 million in Trilogy in exchange for 8.22 million Trilogy shares, or 10 percent of the company. The DoD will also hold warrants for an additional 7.5 percent, exercisable only after the road is constructed.

The funds are earmarked for exploration and development of the Upper Kobuk projects.

According to the release, the DoD will work to facilitate financing for the road’s construction and collaborate with Trilogy to expedite mine permitting using the FAST-41 process.

In an update on October 24, Trilogy stated that the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority executed the right-of-way permits for the Ambler Access Road with the US Army Corps of Engineers, the National Parks Service and the Bureau of Land Management, which re-established the necessary federal authorizations to advance the project.

Shares of Trilogy reached a year-to-date high of C$14.70 on October 14.

5. Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX:NDM)

Year-to-date gain: 234.12 percent
Market cap: C$1.53 billion
Share price: C$2.84

Northern Dynasty Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on the Pebble project, a copper-molybdenum-gold-silver project located 200 miles southwest of Anchorage in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska.

Pebble, which the company says is “one of the greatest stores of mineral wealth ever discovered,” hosts a measured and indicated copper resource of 6.5 billion metric tons and an inferred copper resource of 4.5 billion metric tons.

The Pebble property’s measured and indicated resources for molybdenum, gold and silver total 1.26 million metric tons, 53.82 million ounces and 249.3 million ounces, respectively.

The project stalled in 2020 during the permitting phase following a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) veto that suggested the proposed mine would damage the Bristol Bay watershed.

Early in 2024, the Supreme Court declined to hear the matter on procedural grounds, sending it back to the federal district court and the federal circuit of appeals before the Supreme Court would hear it.

Northern Dynasty spent the rest of 2024 advancing its case in Alaska’s state court. In March of that year, it announced the filing of actions to vacate the EPA’s veto.

In 2025, shares of Northern Dynasty began to surge following Trump’s March 20 executive order that called for expedited approvals for domestic mineral production and included copper as a strategically important mineral.

Since Trump became president, Northern Dynasty has been attempting to work with the EPA to vacate the veto on the project. On February 18, the company agreed to grant the EPA a requested 90 day extension to allow for review by the new leadership in the agency, and granted a further 30 day extension on May 14 and a 20 day extension on June 12.

Although the company had hoped to reach a settlement in early July, it ultimately was forced to file a motion for summary judgment on July 17 to have the EPA veto removed.

The most recent update came on October 8, when Northern Dynasty reported that it had filed a brief with the court and presented arguments as to why the veto should be removed. The company’s president and CEO stated in the release that he believes the company has a strong case.

On November 19, the company provided an updated timeline, noting delays due to the US Federal Government shutdown. It said the Department of Justice must file its opening brief by February 16, 2026, and plaintiffs must file their response by April 15. Northern Dynasty stated that, while it understands the challenges, it believes the extension of the original January 2 date is excessive and would prefer the government withdraw its veto.

The most recent update from the case came on December 1, when the company reported that the National Mining Association, the American Exploration and Mining Association, the Alaska Mining Association and the US Chamber of Commerce filed amicus briefs in support of their case.

The three associations’ summary of their argument began, “This case is exceptionally important to Amicis members, the mining industry, and the nation’s economy. The proposed mine – which the US EPA has unlawfully vetoed – will provide a crucial source of copper for construction, transportation, electrical and electronic projects, industrial machinery, and defense applications.”

Shares of Northern Dynasty reached a year-to-date high of C$3.89 on October 14.

FAQs for investing in copper

Copper supply in 2026

A significant copper story that developed in 2025 was strained supply. Throughout the year, significant events dragged on the availability of mined copper, delaying its arrival to global markets.

Early on, there was a temporary shutdown of BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world. However, the most significant disruption came late in the year, when 800,000 metric tons (MT) of wet material poured into the primary Grasberg block cave (GBC) at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The incident cost seven workers their lives and halted production across the operation.

While the company plans to restart the Big Gossan and Deep Level zones before the end of 2025, a phased restart at the GBC won’t start until the middle of 2026, with full operations not resuming until 2027.

Elsewhere, a seismic event at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in May caused flooding and forced the temporary suspension of mining activities. Although some underground operations have resumed, the company is focused on dewatering the lower portions of the mine.

Since the incident, Ivanhoe has been processing stockpiled materials, but in an update on December 3, it suggested that those stores will be depleted during the first quarter of 2026. Subsequently, it has set its 2026 guidance at 380,000 to 420,000 MT before ramping back up to the 500,000 to 540,000 MT range in 2027.

“Grasberg remains a significant disruption that will persist through 2026, and the situation is similar to constraints at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-kakula, which experienced output cuts this year,’ he said.

‘We believe these outages will keep the market in deficit in 2026.’

Some relief on the copper supply side may come from the restart of operations at First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine. It was forced to shut down in November 2023 after Panama’s supreme court cancelled new 20 year mining contract signed in October 2023. This past Septembe, the Panamanian government ordered a review of the mining lease to restart operations at the site in late 2025 or early 2026.

Similar to Grasberg, restarting mining operations may take some time to return to full production, causing a lag before material from the mine can ease undersupplied market conditions.

Copper demand in 2026

Copper demand is on the rise due to demand from the energy transition, artificial intelligence (AI) and the expansion of data centers, as well as the rapid urbanization of the Global South. However, in 2025, significant demand was also driven by US tariff concerns, as traders have worked to import refined material into the country.

“A huge amount of this tightness has to do with US tariff concerns with refined copper inflows into the US having jumped MT over the year, putting inventory in the country to 750,000 MT,” she said.

Scott-Gray pointed to a “perfect storm” brewing in 2025’s fourth quarter , including a warming outlook driven by easing China-US tensions, US interest rate cuts and China’s 15th five year plan, set to run from 2026 to 2031.

Historically, one of the biggest demand drivers for copper has been the Chinese real estate sector; however, tighter regulations, high debt and low liquidity led to its collapse in 2021, even though the Chinese government has instituted several policies over the past several years to stimulate the sector, to no avail.

According to Reuters, Chinese home prices are set to fall 3.7 percent in 2025, and are expected to decline into the new year as well. Despite these issues, the Chinese economy proved to be robust in 2025 and is expected to post growth of 4.9 percent in 2025 and 4.8 percent in 2026, fueled by high-tech exports.

Additionally, the five-year plan outlays upgrades to the metals sector and growth in new energy.

“Weakness in the property market is likely to continue in 2026, but the story for copper is constructive. Policy focus and capital are expected to prioritize expanding the electricity grid, upgrading manufacturing, renewables and AI-related data centers. These copper-intensive areas are set to more than compensate for a subdued property market, yielding net growth in China’s copper demand next year,” White said.

Copper crunch keeps building

“These things are taking years to fix — so let’s say it takes some of them a year to get fixed and back on track, some of them two years. We’re looking at 2027; by then, the copper demand side will have kicked up even more. My base case is actually for copper deficits to broaden in the next couple of years, then just continue broadening,” he said.

The supply side is also facing headwinds as new operations haven’t come online to replace existing mines that are increasingly challenged by declining grades. While there is new supply in the pipeline, like Arizona Sonoran Copper Company’s (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) brownfield Cactus project and the Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP joint venture Resolution project, both in Arizona, they’re still years away.

“While new projects may add tonnage at the margin, demand growth is likely to outpace any supply additions, which points to further supply deficits that escalate over the coming years,” White said.

A May 1 report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development notes that demand is expected to grow by 40 percent by 2040, requiring US$250 billion in investment capital and the construction of 80 new mines.

The report stated that half of the world’s copper reserves are currently located in just five countries.

Chile, Australia, Peru, the DRC and Russia, with structural challenges setting up that go beyond declining grades, most notably geopolitical risk and long mining times.

The scale of the challenges was recently outlined in a report from Wood Mackenzie, which forecast demand increasing by 24 percent to 43 million MT per year by 2035. To balance the market, the report states that 8 million MT of new supply will be required, along with 3.5 million MT from scrap.

Investor takeaway

Overall, according to the International Copper Study Group’s (ICSG) most recent forecast, released on October 8, mine production is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2026 to 23.86 million MT.

However, refined production is only predicted to increase by 0.9 percent to 28.58 million MT.

Regarding demand, the group stated that refined copper use is expected to grow by 2.1 percent to 28.73 million MT in 2026, outpacing production growth and leading to a 150,000 MT deficit by the end of the year.

White is bullish on copper in 2026, citing low inventories and mine and concentrate deficits. He also suggested tariff threats may not be over, and that regional price differentials and high physical premiums are likely to continue.

With copper deficits expected to accelerate in 2026, prices are set up to hit record highs. Scott-Gray said 2026 could see the average price climb to US$10,635 per MT, with higher prices likely to be off-putting to more price-sensitive buyers.

Additionally, with long-term premiums near record highs, she said market players may look to make purchases on a “just-in-time” basis from alternative sources, such as bonded warehouses or directly from smelters.

Depending on price and supply, consumers could also look to swap out copper for aluminum where practical, though Scott-Gray noted that the switch would have its own limitations.

In data provided by Scott-Gray from StoneX’s Base Metal Front Desk Call, 40 percent of respondents to an LME Metals Poll believe that copper will be the best-performing base metal in 2026.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$90,672.01, down by 0.9 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 8, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Cryptocurrencies traded choppily, but were ultimately directionless over the weekend.

Bitcoin briefly slipped toward the high US$87,000s on Sunday (December 7) ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting, with both short and long positions liquidated.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed on Wednesday (December 10), but labor weakness and sticky inflation will make Chair Jerome Powell’s tone pivotal.

Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com, believes Bitcoin “will likely continue oscillating within the US$84,000 to US$100,000 range until the Fed delivers a clear message,” adding that a 0.25 percentage point cut and dovish signals “would be favorable for risk assets, particularly Bitcoin,” while a hawkish stance risks downward pressure.

On Monday, Bitcoin briefly traded at around US$92,000, but failed to retest US$92,000 to US$93,500 resistance, dropping below US$90,000 as the US market opened.

Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, which serves as a key area of support and resistance during market cycles. Failure to do so could result in a fall to April lows. Fellow analyst van de Poppe is eyeing US$86,000 as key support before potential lows retest.

Liquidity stayed thin, and derivatives positioning showed waning momentum rather than clear trend conviction, setting up a cautious, data‑dependent start to the new week.

Last week, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net outflows of US$87.77 million, while spot Ether ETFs recorded US$65.59 million in outflows.

Cycle data mirroring 2022’s market suggests Bitcoin’s long-term bottom is in or imminent, according to investment manager Timothy Peterson. Derivatives data analyzed by CryptoQuant indicates trader apathy, signaled by low OI and leverage, paving the way for a potential rally.

Ether (ETH) is currently priced at US$3,129.54, down 0.4 percent over 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.09, a decrease of 0.2 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$134.23, down by 1.3 percent over 24 hours.

Crypto derivatives and market indicators

Bitcoin futures open interest rose 0.53 percent to US$58.18 billion in the last four hours of trading, alongside US$4.88 million in liquidations that hit mostly long positions, while Ether open interest climbed 0.49 percent to US$37.84 billion, with US$8.76 million liquidated.

Bitcoin’s relative strength index sits neutral at 51.67 with a mildly negative funding rate of -0.001 percent, signaling balanced momentum and slight short bias, whereas Ether’s positive 0.006 percent funding rate points to lingering long interest despite the downside pressure.

These metrics reflect cautious positioning amid recent Bitcoin consolidation, with rising open interest indicating fresh capital entering despite liquidation flushes that targeted longs more aggressively. The neutral-to-bearish Bitcoin funding and RSI suggest limited upside conviction short-term, potentially capping rallies until macro catalysts provide direction, while Ether’s funding tilt hints at relative resilience in alt positioning.

Today’s crypto news to know

StableChain launches mainnet

StableChain has launched its mainnet, introducing USDT as the gas fee token alongside a new dedicated governance token for network participants.

Tether’s USDT regulatory win

Tether’s USDT stablecoin received key regulatory status in Abu Dhabi, enhancing its legitimacy for institutional use.

BlackRock files for staked Ether ETF

BlackRock filed to list a staked Ether ETF, signaling growing institutional appetite for Ether-based yield products.

SEC closes Ondo probe

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended its investigation into tokenized equity platform Ondo Finance, clearing a major regulatory hurdle.

Strategy boosts BTC holdings

Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) Bitcoin treasury has surpassed 660,000 BTC after a US$962 million purchase, underscoring aggressive accumulation by major players.

Crypto market maturity and resilience

According to Elkaleh, Bitcoin’s resilience during its recent pullback, which brought a 37 percent drawdown from its October all-time high, was telling. While such severity was surprising, he observed that long-term holders and institutions continued to accumulate rather than unwind exposure, which he sees as an indicator of health.

“Q4 was defined by a major leverage reset, with BTC’s sharp pullback forcing a broader reassessment of risk,” he said.

At the time of this writing, analysts were split on where Bitcoin could go next. A further crash risk lingers if the US Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts; however, a post-purge rally to US$135,000 to US$150,000 is in sight mid-year if institutions return, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows flip positive and futures premiums stabilize above 5 percent.

As Bitcoin dropped, Elkaleh observed other segments of the market tied to practical use cases and diversification strategies — such as privacy assets, decentralized AI and stablecoin ecosystems — weather the storm.

“The market (has shown) growing maturity: capital and developer attention shifted toward utility-driven sectors such as tokenization, stablecoins and real-world integrations.”

Tokenization: The on-chain first institutional default

Mersch sees tokenization accelerating in 2026, eventually becoming the default for new institutional financial products.

He sees the foundation of this shift being built, with tokenized treasuries and money-market funds serving as a core yield sleeve for institutional investors who demand liquidity, standardized reporting and programmable settlement.

“If current growth holds, tokenized assets could be a multi-trillion dollar market by 2030, with government bonds and cash-like instruments as the anchor,” he said. “Over the next five years, the key shift is likely that new institutional products are designed as on-chain first, and only secondarily wrapped in legacy wrappers.”

He anticipates that stablecoins will be solidified as the liquidity backbone for a growing tokenized market, acting as the new cash layer. The most likely end state, according to Mersch, will be a hybrid digital cash stack, where bank-issued stablecoins, private stablecoins and central bank digital currenciesco-exist and interoperate.

Mersch predicts that tokenized real estate and private credit will now start to see expansion.

For real estate, tokenization converts a traditionally illiquid market into tradable, divisible assets, lowering the barrier to entry for global investors and providing recurring revenue streams.

Rupena, whose company, Milo, pioneered the crypto-backed mortgage, asserts that lenders will be expected to recognize digital assets as a core part of a client’s real balance sheet, just like cash or securities.

Elkaleh also expects to see strong expansion in RWA tokenization in 2026, alongside stablecoin-based payouts and small-business payment rails. “The most accelerated growth will occur in emerging markets, where mobile-first users turn to crypto as a practical financial alternative,” he wrote in an email.

“The rise of RWA markets, L2 scalability and more accessible DeFi will allow onchain credit and savings to scale meaningfully. Combined with steady institutional inflows, these economies will become the strongest demand engines of 2026, driving both user growth and real economic activity onchain.”

DeFi: An institutional derivatives and credit layer

The final pillar of the 2026 crypto outlook is the maturation of DeFi. Mersch asserted that DeFi is poised to emerge as a compliance-ready core platform for credit and risk management in 2026.

Real-world structural resilience supports Mersch’s forecast.

Rupena noted that market ups and downs are expected in the digital asset ecosystem, and that conservative LTVs, real-time monitoring and clear margining frameworks are designed to cope with volatility.

“Lower forced liquidation activity, even during big market moves, is a very healthy signal,” he explained, adding that customers are purposely keeping collateral cushions so they can stay calm during market swings.

This focus on prudence and durability validates the market’s readiness for institutional-grade credit and risk products.

“If successful, this creates a liquid, 24/7 derivatives layer that sits on top of both tokenized and traditional markets,” Mersch said. “By 2026 and beyond, the most interesting innovation may not be crypto versus TradFi, but portfolio and product designs that blend tokenized assets, stablecoin liquidity and DeFi-based synthetic exposure into a single stack.”

This institutional leap is fundamentally enabled by regulatory clarity.

“You can already see this through partnerships like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) with Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) and Morpho (TSE:3653), where yield is embedded at the platform level without requiring users to interact directly with on-chain protocols. Regulation will accelerate that model,’ he added.

Elkaleh noted that clearer rules will allow users to adopt on-chain tools for cross-border payments, tokenized savings and AI-driven bill pay with the same confidence they have in regulated fintech apps. He expects the most transformational impact will come from next-generation L2 scalability paired with AI-agent execution.

“These shifts will bring down transaction costs, compress settlement times, and enable autonomous payments, subscriptions and cross-chain operations,” the expert explained.

“We also expect prediction-market aggregation to emerge as a breakout consumer interface and RWA perpetuals to bring macro assets, including commodities, credit and inflation onchain through synthetic markets. These developments collectively move crypto into a more comprehensive, high-velocity financial system.”

Upcoming crypto market catalysts

The pivot to a hybrid financial system will be driven by several concurrent catalysts.

The US Market Structure Bill is targeted for a Senate floor vote in early 2026, aiming to create the first federal framework for digital assets. North of the border, Canada’s Stablecoin Act, which provides C$10 million for Bank of Canada oversight starting in 2026, signals official endorsement of the digital cash layer.

Globally, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is set to implement new capital standards for banks’ crypto exposures, crucial for encouraging institutional momentum, by January 1, 2026.

The technological engine supporting this adoption is fueled by scalability and intelligence.

On the blockchain side, Ethereum’s aggressive roadmap, including the Glamsterdam upgrade targeted for 2026, continues to refine Layer-2 (L2) systems. This focus on L2 efficiency, combined with the integration of AI agent execution, is key for supporting the millions of transactions needed for a comprehensive, high-velocity financial system.

Investor takeaway

In 2026, the crypto market is set to deliver meaningful gains and stable, sustained growth as this new, highly efficient, and globally interoperable financial system moves from the laboratory into production scale.