Roblox Corporation (NYSE: RBLX), known for its popular online gaming platform, recently found itself embroiled in controversy following the release of its Q2 earnings report. 

While the company posted strong financial results and provided an optimistic outlook for Q3, the celebration was short-lived. 

The Turkish government has accused Roblox of facilitating child exploitation and hosting inappropriate content, leading to a nationwide ban on the platform. 

This unexpected development raises concerns about the potential impact on the company’s growth and stock value, leaving investors wondering whether this is a buying opportunity or a red flag.

Understanding Turkey’s ban

The Turkish government has taken a firm stance against Roblox, alleging that the platform is complicit in child exploitation and contains content deemed unsuitable for children. 

The Turkish Justice Minister strongly defended the ban, citing the government’s constitutional obligation to protect the country’s youth.

“Our state is obliged to take the necessary measures to protect our children,” the Justice Minister stated, emphasizing that children are the backbone and future of society. 

He reiterated the government’s commitment to shielding children from external influences that could harm their development.

The ban on Roblox is not an isolated incident. 

The Turkish government recently banned Instagram, accusing the platform of censoring posts related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. 

This pattern suggests that the Roblox ban could be part of a broader cultural and political agenda within Turkey.

Roblox’s response and past controversies

In response to the ban, Roblox expressed its commitment to user safety and compliance with Turkish laws. 

The company is actively engaging with Turkish authorities to resolve the matter and restore access to its platform in the country.

Roblox is no stranger to controversies surrounding its content. 

Late last year, the company faced a lawsuit alleging that it failed to provide child-appropriate content, despite its claims of being a safe platform for young users. 

Additionally, in April, Roblox was accused of profiting from child labor, as some of the gamers on its platform were minors. 

The company defended itself by stating that these young participants prioritized enjoyment over overpayment and were not coerced into playing.

Turkey, with a population of over 85 million, is the 18th most populous country in the world. 

A ban in such a significant market is bound to have repercussions. 

Since the ban, Roblox has experienced a 2.5% decline in concurrent users, a figure that could impact its revenue and growth prospects in the region.

Beyond financial losses, Roblox may also face challenges in maintaining its brand value and future expansion opportunities in Turkey and potentially other markets. 

However, the company’s proactive approach to addressing the issue and its history of navigating similar controversies suggest that it may be able to weather the storm.

Is this a buying opportunity?

Roblox’s stock is down 19% year-to-date, and the current controversy adds to the company’s challenges. 

However, for investors who believe in the company’s long-term potential, this dip could present a buying opportunity. 

While the ban in Turkey is concerning, Roblox’s global user base and strategic initiatives may allow it to recover and continue its growth trajectory once the situation is resolved.

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Colin Huang, the founder of Temu and Pinduoduo, has recently been crowned as China’s richest man, with a net worth of $48.6 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

His rise to the top marks a significant shift in China’s billionaire rankings, as he surpasses long-time titleholder Zhong Shanshan, the bottled-water magnate behind Nongfu Spring.

Huang’s wealth, which stems largely from his success in e-commerce, highlights the growing influence of digital platforms in the global economy.

The making of China’s newest tycoon

Born in 1980 in Hangzhou, Colin Huang was a teenage math prodigy who would eventually carve out a niche for himself in the tech industry.

Before founding Pinduoduo, Huang worked as an engineer at Google China, where he played a key role in expanding the company’s services in the Chinese market.

His experience at Google not only honed his technical skills but also gave him a deep understanding of the potential of e-commerce and digital platforms.

Huang’s entrepreneurial journey began with several startups, including Oku, an e-commerce platform, Xinyoudi, an online games company, and an agricultural platform, before he struck gold with Pinduoduo.

Founded in 2015, Pinduoduo quickly became one of China’s most successful e-commerce platforms, attracting consumers with its vast array of products and deeply discounted prices.

The platform’s success is largely attributed to its unique group-buying model, which allows users to team up to purchase items at lower prices, fostering a sense of community among shoppers.

Temu: The global expansion

While Pinduoduo solidified Huang’s status as a major player in China’s e-commerce scene, it was the launch of Temu in 2022 that propelled him to global prominence.

Temu, an overseas iteration of Pinduoduo, was launched in the US and rapidly gained a loyal customer base due to its ultra-low-cost goods.

The platform’s success dovetailed with the economic climate, as persistent high inflation pushed cost-conscious consumers to seek bargains.

Temu’s business model mirrors that of its parent company, offering a vast selection of products at staggeringly low prices.

The platform’s all-powerful algorithms, which optimize pricing and product recommendations, have further enhanced its appeal, making it a go-to destination for budget-conscious shoppers.

The platform’s success in the US was quickly followed by expansion into Europe, Latin America, and other regions.

Despite launching in Europe only last year, Temu has already amassed around 75 million monthly active users in the region, a testament to its rapid growth and widespread appeal.

Temu riddled with controversies

However, Temu’s meteoric rise has not been without its challenges. The platform has faced accusations of unfair commercial practices and lax safety standards. In Europe, consumer groups have alleged that Temu manipulates shoppers into spending more money, distorting their ability to make “free and informed decisions.”

These concerns have led to increased scrutiny from regulators, with South Korean authorities launching an investigation into the platform for suspected false advertising and unfair practices.

In addition to regulatory challenges, Temu has also faced backlash from merchants. In April, hundreds of merchants in China protested at an affiliated office in Guangzhou, accusing the platform of unfair treatment in the sale of their products.

These protests underscore the tensions that can arise between digital platforms and the merchants who rely on them for sales.

Despite these controversies, Temu’s success has remained largely undented. PDD Holdings, the parent company of Temu, reported a more than threefold increase in first-quarter net profit year-on-year.

The company’s US-listed shares have also performed strongly, closing at $138.02 apiece on Thursday, giving it a market capitalization of $191.68 billion.

The broader impact of Temu’s success

Temu’s rise reflects broader trends in the global economy, particularly the increasing influence of digital platforms in shaping consumer behaviour.

The platform’s success is a testament to the power of e-commerce to disrupt traditional retail models and capture significant market share, even in highly competitive markets like the US and Europe.

Moreover, Huang’s ascent to the top of China’s billionaire rankings highlights the shifting dynamics within the country’s business elite.

Whereas previous generations of Chinese billionaires made their fortunes in more traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate, the new wave of billionaires, including Huang, have leveraged the power of technology and e-commerce to build their empires.

This shift underscores the growing importance of the tech sector in China’s economy and its role in driving the country’s economic growth.

The future of Temu and PDD Holdings

Looking ahead, Temu and PDD Holdings face both opportunities and challenges. The platform’s rapid expansion into new markets presents significant growth opportunities, particularly as more consumers around the world turn to online shopping.

However, the company will also need to navigate the regulatory challenges that come with operating in multiple jurisdictions, as well as the ongoing tensions with merchants.

Additionally, Temu’s ability to sustain its growth will depend on its ability to maintain consumer trust and address the concerns raised by regulators and consumer groups.

This will likely require the company to invest in improving its safety standards and ensuring that its business practices are transparent and fair.

For Colin Huang, the challenge will be to continue steering the company through these challenges while maintaining its competitive edge in the global e-commerce landscape.

If he can do so, Temu and PDD Holdings are well-positioned to continue their growth trajectory and cement their status as leaders in the global e-commerce market.

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SoundHound AI saw its stock price jump by 18% today after announcing the acquisition of Amelia AI in an all-cash deal. 

This strategic move has sparked renewed investor interest, as SoundHound positions itself to expand its capabilities and market reach, particularly in the growing field of artificial intelligence (AI).

What is Amelia AI?

Amelia AI is a leading enterprise AI software company specializing in customer service and automation. 

The company’s hyper-intelligent automation tools allow clients to streamline operations and enhance efficiency across various sectors, including healthcare, retail, finance, and telecom. 

Amelia’s Intelligent Virtual Agents (IVAs) are particularly valuable, excelling in understanding user sentiment and intent to improve customer experiences through both voice and chat channels.

By leveraging generative AI, Amelia AI enhances customer service across multiple platforms, making it a versatile player in the AI industry. 

The acquisition will bring Amelia AI’s impressive client roster—including major companies like Telefonica and Toyota—under SoundHound’s umbrella, significantly expanding its market presence.

How does this acquisition benefit SoundHound AI?

The acquisition of Amelia AI is a strategic move that allows SoundHound AI to diversify into new verticals such as finance, healthcare, and retail. 

This diversification is expected to fuel the company’s future growth by opening up multiple revenue streams and creating new opportunities for innovation.

SoundHound AI, already known for its expertise in voice AI, will now be able to integrate Amelia AI’s generative AI and customer service capabilities into its existing offerings. 

This combination is poised to set a new standard in the AI industry, as SoundHound enhances its product portfolio and strengthens its market position.

Financial impact of this acquisition

While the immediate financial impact of this acquisition will not be evident until the second half of 2025, Amelia AI is projected to contribute $45 million to SoundHound AI’s top line. 

This figure represents approximately 30% of SoundHound’s total revenue, and its recurring nature will provide the company with a stable financial base moving forward.

The AI industry is on the brink of explosive growth, with companies expected to spend up to $1 trillion on generative AI in the coming years. 

SoundHound AI’s acquisition of Amelia AI positions it well to capitalize on this trend, either by partnering with other companies to create operational synergies or by fending off competitors. 

The company’s strategic positioning also raises the possibility that it could become a target for acquisition by a major tech player in the future.

Is now the right time to buy?

With SoundHound AI’s stock currently trading just above $5, following a 141% rally this year, a lot of optimism has already been priced in. 

However, the long-term benefits of the Amelia AI acquisition are likely to become apparent over time, potentially driving the stock price even higher. 

While short-term volatility may be a factor, the company’s strategic moves suggest that buying now and weathering any near-term fluctuations could be a wise decision for long-term investors.

SoundHound AI’s acquisition of Amelia AI is a significant strategic move that not only enhances its product offerings but also strengthens its position in the rapidly evolving AI landscape. 

As the benefits of this acquisition begin to materialize, SoundHound AI could see substantial growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

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Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) is grappling with a significant revenue plunge as its stock price hits new lows. 

In its Q2 earnings report released today, the company revealed a 44.9% drop in revenue, totaling $143.4 million for the quarter. 

The company’s stock fell 2% in trading following the announcement. 

Despite a slight improvement in earnings per share (EPS) to -$0.36 from -$0.40 a year ago, investors are left questioning the company’s prospects.

Operating profit margin plummets 

The company’s operating profit margin plummeted to -171%, an 80.8% decline year-over-year. 

High marketing, sales, and administrative expenses have burdened Plug Power, making profitability elusive. 

The company’s revenue guidance of $875 million was marginally below analyst expectations, and its financial performance has left investors increasingly impatient.

Despite these setbacks, Plug Power operates in a growing sector with rising demand for hydrogen solutions in both industrial applications and transportation. 

As the world shifts towards a green hydrogen economy, Plug Power’s future revenue prospects could improve.

The company has recently formed a strategic partnership with Olin Corporation to develop a hydrogen production facility in Louisiana. 

This initiative aims to enhance Plug Power’s hydrogen production capacity, reinforcing its role as a leading player in hydrogen ecosystems.

Plug Power’s strategic investments 

Plug Power’s strategic investments in hydrogen production facilities across the US and Europe bolster its position. 

In Finland, the company operates a facility capable of producing 850 tons of hydrogen per day. 

In Belgium, it is constructing one of Europe’s largest green energy plants, expected to generate 12,500 tons of hydrogen annually once completed.

These projects reflect Europe’s supportive policies towards green energy, positioning Plug Power to expand its global footprint as other regions adopt similar policies.

Leadership changes 

The recent appointment of Dean Fullerton as Chief Operating Officer could signal positive changes for Plug Power. 

Fullerton, formerly with Amazon, is known for enhancing operational efficiency. His expertise may help address the company’s operational challenges and improve financial performance.

Looking at Plug Power’s 10-year stock price chart reveals that the stock has returned to levels last seen between 2015 and 2020. This historical support area could provide a base for future price stability.

Investment considerations

While Plug Power’s current financial situation presents challenges, the company’s strong presence in the burgeoning hydrogen sector and strategic initiatives suggest potential for recovery. 

Investors who accumulate shares at current levels may benefit as the effects of new leadership and strategic changes start to materialize.

While Plug Power’s recent financial performance is disappointing, its strategic investments and leadership changes offer reasons for cautious optimism. As the market adjusts to these developments, long-term investors may find opportunities in the company’s evolving trajectory.

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Palantir Technologies saw a 6% surge in its stock price on Thursday following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Microsoft. 

This collaboration aims to enhance secure cloud, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities for the US defense and intelligence communities, reinforcing Palantir’s strong presence in the government sector.

Palantir, renowned for its advanced software solutions tailored for government use, will leverage this partnership by integrating its key products—including Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and the new AI Platform (AIP)—with Microsoft’s specialized cloud services for government agencies. 

This collaboration is expected to not only boost Palantir’s operational capabilities but also solidify its market presence within the public sector, a critical area for the company.

Palantir generated 54% of its revenue from government clients 

Earlier this week, Palantir reported its latest earnings and revised its annual revenue forecast upwards. 

The company now anticipates annual revenue between $2.74 billion and $2.75 billion, exceeding its previous forecast of $2.68 billion to $2.69 billion. 

This adjustment also surpasses the LSEG consensus estimate of $2.7 billion, reflecting the company’s confidence in its growth trajectory.

In a letter to shareholders, CEO Alex Karp highlighted that Palantir’s trailing 12-month revenue from its US government business, which includes intelligence and defense agencies, has surpassed $1 billion for the first time. 

Notably, the company generated 54% of its revenue from government clients in the second quarter, emphasizing the strategic importance of its public sector engagements.

Palantir’s stock has appreciated by about 60% year-to-date, and this latest partnership with Microsoft is likely to further bolster investor confidence. 

For Microsoft, this partnership underscores its aim to deliver advanced cloud and AI solutions tailored to the specific needs of government agencies. 

By teaming up with Palantir, Microsoft can further solidify its position as a key provider of secure and efficient technology solutions for the public sector.

Why is this partnership important?

The partnership between Palantir and Microsoft represents a strategic win for both companies. 

For Palantir, it provides a platform to expand its reach and enhance the deployment of its cutting-edge products within a crucial sector. 

For Microsoft, it reinforces its commitment to supporting government agencies with advanced cloud and AI capabilities, crucial for modernizing operations and improving outcomes.

This collaboration marks a significant milestone in the integration of sophisticated technology within the US defense and intelligence communities. 

By combining Palantir’s expertise in software solutions with Microsoft’s robust cloud infrastructure, the partnership promises to deliver enhanced capabilities and operational improvements, setting a new standard for technology integration in government operations.

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The wild swing that Japan, Asia and global markets including the US witnessed on Monday following data on US jobs and the unwinding of yen carry trade has stabilised for now, but fears of the US slipping into a recession, remain.

Ace American investor and chairman of Beeland Interests, James Beeland Rogers, popularly known as Jim Rogers, has seen the tides turn many a times, and held strong.

Invezz turned to Rogers to get his views on how to make sense of the recent events, which assets to buy or hold in such volatile times, and why, though he thinks a bear market is around the corner, he is not selling short yet. Edited excerpts:

Invezz: What do you make of Monday’s market crash led by Japan and fears of impending recession in the US?

Well, stock markets around the world have all been making new highs, except China. Everybody else has been having a very good time. That usually leads to a problem. When everybody’s happy, you should be worried.

So, Japan had been down for 35 years. Then it started going up this year, for many reasons, and it went straight up for a long time. When a market like that starts going down, it usually gets very scary, and Japan got scary.

Is it the end? I don’t know. I know the end is coming soon, because everybody in the world has been having a very good time, including India, including Japan. These are markets that have not been great for a long time. So, I don’t know when the end comes, but I know we’re getting close.

Monday market crash a signal for times to come?

Maybe it was a ring of bells saying, get ready, get ready.

I will tell you that I do not own many shares anywhere in the world, because I know we’re going to have another bear market, and I know it’s going to be very, very serious when it happens.

We had a problem in 2008 because of too much debt. That’s all of it. Since 2009, the debt everywhere has skyrocketed. Even India has debt now. So, be worried. I’m worried. But I am not selling short yet. 

Silver is a cheap asset to consider

Invezz: So, where are you currently holding your wealth now? Which asset class investors should be looking at in such volatile times?

What I have learned in the past is, you should look at things that are still depressed.

I mean, silver is cheap. Gold is at the all-time high. Silver is down 40% from its all-time high. So, maybe silver. I own silver. I hope I buy more. I hope I buy more gold if it goes down.

Agriculture is still cheap, but most things are not cheap. Most assets, especially stocks all over the world, are expensive. So, there are not many things to buy.

When you start selling short, you should short the stocks that have gone up the most. Those stocks in America, you know, the (magnificent) seven- when the bear markets come, those are the kinds of things that one should sell short. 

I don’t know any stock in India to sell short. It’s more likely America is the place to sell short.

Invezz: Experts have been debating whether AI stocks will go down the dot-com path. What do you make of the whole AI boom that is driving Big Tech? 

AI is already changing the world. It’s going to change the world even more. And there will be great fortunes made. There will be great disasters as well. There always have been.

But that’s how electricity changed the world. And it was wonderful. The stocks were wonderful for a while.

As I said, some of these companies are going to collapse. Most of the stocks will collapse. But I am not shorting yet, partly because I don’t know which ones and partly because my timing is bad.

Waiting for more hysteria to build up in AI

What I’m waiting for, is for more hysteria. I’m waiting for there to be wild hysteria. That’s when I will sell short, if it happens. Usually when you have a bubble, whether it’s railroads or electricity or television or computers, whatever, that becomes hysteria at the end.

Invezz: Coming back to the fears of a recession in the US, historically, emerging markets seem to have benefitted when developed markets see a recessionary phase. Do you see the pattern getting repeated if it happens?

Well, this is one of the few times in my life that I’ve seen nearly everybody except China booming and making all-time highs.

That has happened rarely in my life. So when this market boom ends, it’s going to be very, very bad.

In 2008, we had a problem because of too much debt. That’s all since 2009. The debt everywhere has skyrocketed. So the next time we have a bear market, the next time we have a problem, it has to be hard.

The debt is so high. I got out a paper the other day and I started trying to figure out American government debt. It is impossible for America ever to pay the debt. But people don’t care right now. I can see my children are going to have horrible problems in their lifetime.

Even India is building up debt. I mean, India is nothing as bad as the United States. But Americans, young Americans are going to have a hard time. It’s a good time to be an old American. It is not a good time to be a young American.

Invezz: Who’s to blame for this? Is this something that you had been expecting even before the whole talk about a recession started? 

Well, we have noticed some small problems are developing in the United States and other countries. That’s the way recessions start. They start small over there. Nobody cares. They don’t. It’s too small. It’s too insignificant. Eventually, it’s on the evening news. It’s on the BBC worldwide.

It’s not there yet. But the signs are beginning to emerge. But I’m not selling short yet. 

Monday was the kind of thing that happens to warn people that problems are coming. Maybe that was the sign. I don’t know. But it’s a sign that we’re getting closer to the end. 

Fed has waited for too long, indeed

Invezz: A lot of experts are worrying that the Fed may have kept the interest rate too high for too long, which is fuelling fears of a recession. Do you think the Fed misjudged the inflation situation?

Most central banks, especially the Fed, misjudge and get it wrong. There have been very few smart central bankers in history. India had a great one a few years ago. I think he’s a professor somewhere now. America’s had two or three in our history.

Most of them don’t know what they’re doing. That’s why they get a job working for the government. I make many mistakes myself.

But it seems that yes, they have waited too long, that they should be raising interest rates, not cutting interest rates, but they will cut them some more.

Where’s crypto headed?

Invezz: What are your views on cryptocurrency? There has been some formalisation in the asset class with the SEC green-lighting ETFs for Bitcoin.

Well, I have never bought or sold crypto. I have never sold short. I mean, I wish I had bought crypto when I was two. I wish I had bought IBM in 1940. There are many things I wish.

I do not see any value for crypto except for trading. And if you’re a trader, you probably have a lot of fun, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

There are trading deals around the world, but I do not see any real value or real worth to cryptocurrencies except as trading. 

I do not believe that the United States government is ever going to say, okay, you can use crypto to pay your taxes if you want to. Or, you can use crypto to buy licenses. Governments want a monopoly.

So, in my view, crypto will never be real to me and will disappear someday.

Is the slowdown in China a concern?

Invezz: You spoke of China being an exception to the trend of all-time highs. What do you make of the slowdown there?

Well, China has been very successful too, as you know. But then China got hit by the virus which hurt them badly.

And they had a huge property bubble, one of the biggest in history in the world. They tried to stop it unsuccessfully, but then the market popped the bubble.

So now China has two very serious problems. The property bubble collapsed, and they had the virus. So they’re struggling. This has happened to many countries in history.

Don’t worry, China will recover. Do not give up on China. If you can do business with China, you should.

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Google and Meta have made headlines with a covert agreement aimed at targeting teenagers on YouTube with advertisements for Instagram.

This strategic partnership, designed to bypass Google’s own rules on how minors are treated online, has raised significant ethical and legal concerns.

Documents and sources reveal the inner workings of this campaign and the broader implications for the tech industry.

Targeting teens through an ‘unknown’ loophole

According to a Financial Times report, Google developed a marketing project for Meta to target 13- to 17-year-old YouTube users with ads promoting Instagram.

The campaign focused on a group labelled as “unknown” in Google’s advertising system, which skewed towards under-18s. The strategy exploited a loophole in Google’s policies, which prohibits personalized ads for minors, including those based on demographics.

According to insiders, steps were taken to disguise the true intent of the campaign, which ran counter to Google’s own guidelines against circumventing its policies through “proxy targeting.”

Development amid congressional scrutiny

The Instagram campaign was already underway when Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appeared before the US Congress in January to apologize for instances of child exploitation on his platforms.

This context highlights the contrast between public commitments to child safety and behind-the-scenes marketing strategies.

Google and Meta, typically fierce competitors in the online advertising space, collaborated with Spark Foundry, a subsidiary of Publicis, to launch the pilot project in Canada from February to April 2023.

Due to its success, the project was trialled in the US in May, with plans for broader international expansion and promotion of other Meta apps, such as Facebook.

Internal and external reactions

The report said that upon being contacted by the Financial Times, Google initiated an investigation into the allegations. The project has since been canceled.

Google stated,

We prohibit ads being personalized to people under-18, period. These policies go well beyond what is required and are supported by technical safeguards.

They confirmed that no registered YouTube users under 18 were directly targeted, yet did not deny the use of the “unknown” group loophole.

Meta, on the other hand, maintained that targeting the “unknown” audience did not constitute personalization or policy circumvention. They emphasized adherence to their own policies and those of their peers when advertising their services, stating,

“We’ve been open about marketing our apps to young people as a place for them to connect with friends, find community, and discover their interests.”

Legislative and regulatory backdrop

The timing of the Google-Meta partnership comes amid heightened legislative activity concerning child safety online.

Last week, the US Senate passed the Kids Online Safety Act, imposing a duty of care on social media platforms to protect children from harmful content.

This bipartisan agreement marks a significant step toward regulating Silicon Valley on child safety.

Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn commented on the Google-Meta deal, stating,

Big Tech companies cannot be trusted to protect our kids. They once again have been caught exploiting our children and these Silicon Valley executives have proven that they will always prioritize profit over our children.

Meta’s ongoing scrutiny

Meta’s handling of minors on its platforms has long been under scrutiny. The company is currently being sued by 33 states for allegedly deploying manipulative practices towards young users, accusations that Meta denies.

Additionally, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) seeks to prevent Meta from monetizing teen audiences, a move the company is contesting in court.

In 2021, Meta halted plans to launch a kids’ version of Instagram after a public backlash and whistleblower revelations suggesting the app was harmful to teenage girls’ mental health.

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Arm Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARM) is emerging as a formidable contender in the server chip market, with the potential to disrupt the dominance of Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). 

According to Atul Goyal, Managing Director at Jefferies Asia, Arm’s power-efficient CPUs position the Cambridge-based company to gain significant market share in servers, a critical component for large-scale data centers. 

In an interview with CNBC, Goyal emphasized that Arm’s architecture could potentially replace x86 chips in most servers, marking a significant shift in the industry.

Arm stock may still not be worth owning

Despite this promising outlook, the valuation of Arm’s stock remains a contentious issue. 

Although the company has experienced a remarkable 50% increase in stock price since the start of 2024, Goyal expresses caution. 

He acknowledges that while Arm is well-positioned for growth over the next five to ten years, the rapid rally of its shares over the past seven months has led to concerns about overvaluation. 

Goyal is particularly wary of the high expectations baked into the current stock price, suggesting that it might not be the best time to invest, even though the company’s fundamentals remain strong.

Goyal also highlighted the ongoing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the industry, asserting that AI is far from a passing trend. 

He believes that Intel’s struggles in the AI space could serve as a significant tailwind for Arm, further strengthening its position in the market. 

However, despite these positive indicators, Goyal remains cautious about the stock, stating that he is “not a big believer yet” in its current valuation.

This skepticism was echoed by our market analyst Crispus Nyaga, who recently suggested that Arm’s shares could see a downside to $85. 

Nyaga’s analysis underscores the risks associated with Arm’s current valuation, despite the company’s strong market positioning.

Arm issued muted Q2 guidance last month

Adding to the concerns, Arm issued muted guidance for its second quarter last month. 

While the company exceeded Street estimates for fiscal Q1, it projected revenue of $780 million to $830 million for Q2, with adjusted EPS between 23 cents and 27 cents. 

This forecast was slightly below analysts’ expectations of $804 million in revenue and 27 cents in earnings per share, contributing to a more than 40% decline in Arm’s stock over the past month.

Further complicating the outlook, Arm has stopped disclosing the number of Arm-based chips shipped, a move explained by CEO Rene Haas as a shift in focus towards higher-value, lower-volume markets such as data centers, AI accelerators, and smartphone application processors. 

This strategic pivot suggests that Arm is aligning itself with emerging growth areas, but it also raises questions about the company’s performance metrics and long-term prospects.

While Arm Holdings appears to be in a strong position to challenge industry giants like Intel and AMD, particularly in the growing server market, its stock may not be as attractive due to valuation concerns and recent performance issues. 

Investors should weigh the company’s long-term potential against the risks associated with its current share price.

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