Markets and commodities react

Canadian equity markets were on the rise this week.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 2.51 percent over the week and set a new record to close Friday at 32,612.93; the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) fared a little better, rising 4.91 percent to 1,052.18. The CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) also gained ground, rising 5.17 percent to close at 182.45.

The gold price was trading near all-time highs this week following the US incursion into Venezuela. It gained 4.36 percent on the week to reach US$4,506.84 per ounce by Friday at 4:00 p.m. EST. The silver price did even better, trading near an all time high at US$82.54 per ounce on Tuesday (January 6). Although the price pulled back on Wednesday and Thursday (January 8), it rebounded on Friday to end the week up 10.17 percent at US$79.75.

In base metals, the Comex copper price climbed to its own record high, reaching US$6.12 per pound on Monday, before pulling back to end the week down 0.67 percent at US$5.91.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) rose 2.06 percent to end Friday at 559.83.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

​How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stocks data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market caps greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.​

1. Gold Reserve (TSXV:GRZ)

Weekly gain: 131.78 percent
Market cap: C$662.66 million
Share price: C$5.47

Gold Reserve is an exploration company that holds a minority share in the Siembra Minera gold and copper project in Venezuela. It is currently in a dispute with the Venezuelan government, which holds a majority stake in the project, claiming that it has deprived Gold Reserve of its rights to the multi-billion dollar mining project.

In 2014, the government was ordered to pay over US$700 million to Gold Reserve, but, in a show of good faith, the company agreed to enter into settlement negotiations, ultimately agreeing in 2016 to pay the arbitration award in installments. However, according to Gold Reserve, the government failed to make payments and, by 2021, had shifted to sabotaging negotiations, entering into new deals over the property with rivals, and imprisoning the company’s chief legal and commercial representative. The company states the imprisonment intimidated potential court representatives for the company, and the Supreme Court of Venezuela dismissed Gold Reserve’s appeal for “lack of representation.”

More recently, Gold Reserve has pursued legal action in Delaware regarding the forced sale of assets owned by Venezuela’s state-owned oil producer, PDVSA, and CITGO. In its most recent update on the Delaware case Friday, Gold Reserve said that it filed its opening appeal brief with the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in connection with the proposed sale of the oil companies’ assets. Although Gold Reserve was the highest bidder, the District Court approved the sale to Elliott Investment Management and affiliate Amber Energy. Gold Reserve asserts that the order approving the sale violated Delaware requirements that attached shares be sold to the highest bidder.

The company believes there are enough concerns to vacate the sale order. It also added that it is reviewing security plans and taking proactive steps to support an eventual safe return to its operations in Venezuela.

Shares surged this week following the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro by US forces on January 3.

2. Peloton Minerals (CSE:PMC)

Weekly gain: 92.86 percent
Market cap: C$42.06 million
Share price: C$0.27

Peleton Minerals is an exploration company focused on its flagship North Elko lithium project in Nevada, US.

The property consists of 442 mineral claims covering 37 square kilometers, west of a major discovery made by Surge Battery Metals (TSXV:NILI,OTCQX:NILIF) in 2023. In 2024 and 2025, Peloton carried out several exploration programs at the site, including airborne hyperspectral imaging, a soil geochemistry survey and geological mapping.

In November 2025, the company commenced a maiden drill program at the site, saying it planned to target lithium-bearing claystone layers with potential for other critical minerals.

The program consisted of four holes, each drilled to a depth of approximately 500 feet. Peloton announced on December 10 that the program was complete and confirmed near-surface clay layers. The company had submitted samples for multi-element analysis, with results not expected until the end of January 2026.

Shares in the company gained this week, but it has not released news since December 31, when it reported the closing of the third and final tranche of its non-brokered private placement. The three fundraising rounds raised C$1.17 million in total and proceeds will fund lithium exploration in Northern Nevada and working capital.

3. Decade Resources (TSXV:DEC)

Weekly gain: 77.78 percent
Market cap: C$13.84 million
Share price: C$0.08

Decade Resources is focused on advancing a portfolio of properties in the Golden Triangle region of BC, Canada.

Among its interests is a 55 percent stake in the Del Norte property located near Stewart, BC. The company acquired its share in the property from Teuton Resources (TSXV:TUO,OTCQB:TEUTF) via a January 2020 option deal.

Since that time, the company has executed the required C$4 million in exploration expenditures at Del Norte, and is now looking toward earning an additional 20 percent stake by bringing the property to commercial production.

Drilling at the site in 2024 led to the discovery of a new zone with assays of 6.59 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold and 946 g/t silver over 1 meter, located below the Kosciuszko zone.

The most recent update came on Tuesday, when Decade provided an overview of the property and laid out its exploration plans for 2026. The work would focus on several areas, including one 800 meters southwest of the Eagle’s Nest zone where a historic float sample returned values of 4,232.2 g/t silver and 13.59 g/t gold in 1994. Targets also include the 2024 discovery, and along strike from the Kosciuszko and Eagle’s Nest zones.

4. SouthGobi Resources (TSX:SGQ)

Weekly gain: 68.89 percent
Market cap: C$99.39 million
Share price: C$0.38

SouthGobi is a coal mining company with assets located in Southern Mongolia near the border with China.

Its flagship operation is the Ovoot Tolgoi coal mine, which consists of the Sunrise and Sunset pits and has been producing since 2008. SouthGobi holds permits to mine until 2037. The company also owns two additional properties in the region. The Soumber deposit is located 20 kilometers east of the Ovoot Tolgoi mine, meaning that any potential mining of Soumber could share Ovoot Tolgoi’s infrastructure. Its last property is the Zag Suuj deposit, located 150 kilometers east of Ovoot Tolgoi and 80 kilometers from the Mongolia-China Border.

The company has not released any news this past week.

5. Regency Silver (TSXV:RSMX)

Weekly gain: 65.38 percent
Market cap: C$19.16 million
Share price: C$0.215

Regency Silver is an exploration company focused on its Dios Padre precious metals and copper property in Sonora, Mexico. The site comprises three concessions covering a total area of 728 hectares and was acquired through a 2017 earn-in agreement with Minera Pena Blanca. It hosts the historic Dios Padre silver mine.

A March 2023 technical report outlines an inferred resource of 1.38 million metric tons of ore containing 10.15 million ounces of silver with an average grade of 228 g/t, plus 14,294 ounces of gold with an average grade of 0.32 g/t.

The most recent update from the project came on Thursday, when Regency announced a 225 meter step-out extension from the previous drilling. The company said it encountered sulfide-specularite supported breccia across a broad, non-continuous interval of 240 meters. While it has not received analytical results, it compared the breccia to that found in multiple other holes at the site, including one in which a 35.8 meter intersection returned grades of 6.84 g/t gold, 0.88 percent copper and 21.82 g/t silver. The news coincides with near-record-high gold and silver prices.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: St. Augustine Rises 67 Percent on Private Placement

Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: St. Augustine Rises 67 Percent on Private Placement

Copper outlook for 2026

Market watchers expect many of the forces that drove copper through 2025 to persist.

Supply constraints are expected to remain acute this year as aging mines and capacity shortfalls weigh on availability. New projects such as Arizona Sonoran Copper Company’s (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) Cactus project and the long‑anticipated Resolution mine in the US are still years from significant output.

Copper demand is projected to grow as the global energy transition accelerates.

“A huge amount of this tightness has to do with US tariff concerns,” she said.

China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is also shaping the outlook. Despite weakness in its property sector, the country posted economic growth and is expected to prioritize copper‑intensive sectors under its new five year plan.

Longer‑term projections from industry groups suggest structural demand growth will outpace supply additions.

A UN report estimates that copper demand could rise 40 percent by 2040, requiring substantial investment and new mines just to keep pace. Likewise, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that copper demand will increase 24 percent by 2035, while the International Copper Study Group predicts a refined copper deficit of 150,000 metric tons in 2026 alone.

1. MDxHealth (NASDAQ:MDXH)

Year-on-year gain: 50.86 percent
Market cap: US$173.24 million
Share price: US$3.50

MDxHealth is a commercial-stage precision diagnostics company specializing in molecular tests for urologic cancers, particularly prostate cancer, using genomic, epigenetic and exosomal technologies. Its US headquarters and operations are located in Irvine, California.

The company offers non-invasive and tissue-based diagnostic assays that run on standard PCR platforms.

In September, MDxHealth acquired Exosome Diagnostics from Bio-Techne (NASDAQ:TECH) for US$15 million, adding the ExoDx Prostate urine test to its portfolio. The deal also includes a CLIA-certified clinical laboratory and related assets. The deal is expected to generate over US$20 million in revenue in 2026.

2. KORU Medical Systems (NASDAQ:KRMD)

Year-on-year gain: 50.13 percent
Market cap: US$269.6 million
Share price: US$5.82

KORU Medical Systems develops and manufactures medical devices and supplies in the US and internationally, with a focus on mechanical infusion products. Its Freedom Syringe Infusion System first received FDA clearance in 1994.

Based on this system, its primary products include the Freedom60 and FreedomEdge syringe infusion systems, Precision Flow Rate Tubing and High-Flo Subcutaneous Safety Needle Sets.

KORU Medical Systems submitted a 510(k) premarket notification to the FDA on December 30, 2025, seeking clearance for its FreedomEdge system to deliver Phesgo — a HER2+ breast cancer targeted biologic — subcutaneously, targeting infusion centers to cut chair time and boost efficiency.

The company stated this is part of its strategy to expand the indications of FreedomEdge to the wider oncology infusion center market.

3. Vivani Medical (NASDAQ:VANI)

Year-on-year gain: 1.71 percent
Market cap: US$86.81 million
Share price: US$1.19

Vivani Medical is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing miniature, long-term subdermal drug implants using its proprietary NanoPortal technology to treat chronic conditions like obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Headquartered in Alameda, California, Vivani focuses on GLP-1 implants that provide steady drug release over six months to improve adherence and tolerability compared to daily pills or weekly injections.

In August, Vivani Medical reported positive Phase 1 results from its LIBERATE-1 trial of the NPM-115 exenatide implant, confirming safety and steady drug release for obesity treatment without major side effects.

The company plans to rapidly advance its NPM-139 semaglutide implant after it achieved preclinical results of sustained 20 percent weight loss. It is planning a Phase 1 clinical study in the first half of 2026.

Investor Insight

Centurion Minerals offers investors an early-stage entry point into a strategically located gold exploration company positioned within one of North America’s most prolific and active mining districts. With a restructured corporate foundation, and a highly experienced geological and corporate finance team, the company is primed for value-creating discoveries.

Overview

Centurion Minerals (TSXV:CTN) is a Canadian exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of precious metals projects in the Americas.

The company’s strategy is centered on advancing high-quality, early-stage gold assets through systematic exploration to define drill-ready targets and unlock the discovery potential inherent in its three-part claim package: the Newman, Noseworthy and Hepburn properties. Situated near major operations and new discoveries, these claims benefit from excellent infrastructure, year-round road access and proximity to proven mineralized structural corridors. Centurion intends to increase shareholder value through targeted geophysics, ground truthing and drilling programs designed to reveal new high-grade zones, as well as through potential future acquisitions of complementary gold assets across the Americas.

Backed by a leadership team with decades of exploration, geology, corporate finance and project development experience, Centurion is positioned to capitalize on strong gold market fundamentals and renewed investor interest in junior exploration companies. With a low current valuation and advancing work program, the company provides leverage to both exploration success and broader trends in the gold sector.

Company Highlights

• Highly prospective gold project in a world-class district located in the central north Abitibi greenstone belt, adjacent to major deposits and producing mines including Hecla Mining’s (NYSE:HL) Casa Berardi mine and Agnico Eagle’s (TSX:AEM) Detour Lake operations.
• Exceptional closeology advantage, with its Casa Berardi West project situated just 12 km from AMEX Exploration’s (TSXV:AMX) 1.6 Moz “Perron” discovery and along the same structural corridors that have produced multi-million-ounce deposits.
• Significant historic drilling across the three claim groups, including results up to 38 g/t gold and multiple intervals indicating gold-bearing iron formations and shear zones.
• Clear exploration strategy including historic data compilation, geophysical surveys, target generation and a planned program to define new mineralized zones.
• Experienced management and technical team with decades of experience in mineral exploration, and international corporate finance, enhances the potential of uncovering additional exploration opportunities.
• Low market capitalization and recently reactivated corporate structure, offering investors a low entry point ahead of meaningful upside catalysts.

Key Project

Casa Berardi West Gold Project

The Casa Berardi West project is Centurion’s flagship gold exploration asset, encompassing approximately 6,732 hectares across three contiguous claim groups – Newman, Noseworthy and Hepburn – located 66 km northeast of Cochrane, Ontario. The project sits along structural corridors that host some of the region’s most significant deposits, including Hecla Mining’s Casa Berardi mine (3 Moz past production, plus 4 Moz in reserves and resources), Agnico Eagle’s Detour Lake mine (15 Moz reserve, producing ~659,000 oz of gold per year ), and AMEX Exploration’s Perron discovery (1.6 Moz measured and indicated resource at 6.14 g/t gold).

Location of the three claim groups at Casa Berardi West

Geological Setting & Closeology Advantage

The project is situated within the central north Abitibi Subprovince, an Archean greenstone belt known globally for its prolific endowment of gold and base metals. The claims lie adjacent to geological features associated with multiple major deposits – iron formations, shear zones and VMS trends – creating strong analogues to high-grade gold mines such as the Musselwhite mine in Northern Ontario.

This “closeology” positioning significantly enhances the potential for Centurion’s ground to host similar mineralization.

Historic Results & Target Areas

Historic exploration across the Casa Berardi West project – spanning more than 70 RC and diamond drill holes – has already confirmed the presence of gold-bearing structures and favorable host rocks. Notably, previous work returned multiple samples above 1 g/t gold, including a standout result of 38 g/t gold, demonstrating strong mineralization potential across the claim area.

Significant historic drill results at Newman target

Across the three claim groups, drilling and geophysical surveys have identified key geological features associated with major deposits in the region, including iron formations, shear zones and sulphidized horizons. Several zones of interest remain untested or underexplored, particularly along structural trends that extend from nearby high-grade gold and VMS systems such as the Perron and Normetal areas.

These findings provide Centurion with multiple high-priority target areas for follow-up exploration, forming the foundation for its next phase of geophysical work and upcoming drill targeting.

Management Team

David Tafel – Director, President and CEO

David Tafel brings over 30 years of experience in corporate structuring, strategic planning, financing and executive management across multiple public and private resource companies. He has raised several hundred million dollars for ventures in mining, technology and life sciences, and previously managed private investment funds at Canada’s largest independent securities firm.

Jeremy Wright – Director and CFO

A seasoned financial executive with more than 20 years of experience, Jeremy Wright serves as president & CEO of Seatrend Strategy Group and has held CFO roles across numerous public companies in the resource and technology sectors. His background includes financial management, negotiations and environmental economics, supported by extensive board leadership experience.

Joseph Del Campo – Director

Joseph Del Campo has served as CFO and Interim CEO across several mining companies, including Unigold and First Nickel. With decades of corporate financial leadership and board experience, he contributes deep governance, audit and operational oversight expertise to Centurion’s board.

Mike Kilbourne – Geological Consultant

A veteran geologist with 40+ years of industry experience, Mike Kilbourne has managed over 100,000 metres of drilling across North America and Mexico, worked as a production geologist in multiple mining environments, and generated over 700 exploration targets for private and public companies.

Jamie Lavigne – Geological Consultant

Jamie Lavigne is a senior exploration geologist with more than 30 years of experience in base and precious metals. He has held senior technical roles with major mining companies and specializes in advanced exploration, resource delineation and geological modeling across global mineral belts.

1. HLS Therapeutics (TSX:HLS)

Year-on-year gain: 26.6 percent
Market cap: C$149.8 million
Share price: C$4.76

HLS Therapeutics focuses on drugs for cardiovascular and central nervous system problems, often through partnerships. The company specializes in acquiring and commercializing pharmaceuticals that address unmet needs, including Vascepa to reduce cardiovascular risk and Clozaril for treatment-resistant schizophrenia.

HLS in-licensed the exclusive rights to the treatments Nilemdo and Nexlizet, both of which are already approved in other countries, from Esperion (NASDAQ:ESPR) in May.

The November 2025 Health Canada approval of LDL-cholesterol lowering treatment Nilemdo represents the most significant catalyst for the company since the launch of Vascepa, positioning HLS as a dominant leader in the Canadian cardiovascular market. The company is targeting Nilemdo’s commercial launch in Q2 2026.

Along with the approval, Health Canada issued a notice of non-compliance for its Nexlizet cholesterol-reducing treatment. According to HLS, the decision was related to chemistry, manufacture and controls data, not clinical data or safety.

Additionally, the company generates revenue from a diversified portfolio of royalty interests on various products marketed by third parties.

2. Satellos Bioscience (TSXV:MSCL)

Year-on-year gain: 14.49 percent
Market cap: C$141.04 million
Share price: C$0.79

Satellos Bioscience is a Canadian pharmaceutical company expanding treatment options for muscle disorders. The company has focused specifically on Duchenne muscular dystrophy, developing therapies that target the specific biological pathways involved in regenerating and repairing muscle tissue.

Its lead candidate, SAT-3247, targets a protein called AAK1, which regulates the activity of stem cells that activate and differentiate new muscle fibers.

In Q4 2025, Satellos administered the first dose to a patient in its 11-month open-label follow-up study for adults who completed its initial Phase 1b trial. The study seeks to demonstrate the lasting impact of the significant functional improvements observed earlier in the year.

On December 9, the company received Investigational New Drug (IND) clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and several other global regulators to initiate BASECAMP, a global Phase 2 randomized, placebo-controlled study to evaluate SAT-3247 in pediatric patients.

3. Knight Therapeutics (TSX:GUD)

Year-on-year gain: 14.29 percent
Market cap: C$592.59 million
Share price: C$6.00

Knight Therapeutics is a specialty pharmaceutical company headquartered in Montreal, Québec. It operates on an acquisition and in-licensing model, obtaining the rights to innovative medicines from global pharmaceutical companies and commercializing them across Canada and Latin America.

The company was originally founded by the former leaders of Paladin Labs, which was acquired by Endo International in 2014. In June 2025, Knight bought the Paladin business back from Endo for C$107 million, adding over 40 products to Knight’s Canadian roster.

The additions, helped drive 32 percent revenue growth year-over-year to a record C$122.55 million in Q3. The company projects its Knight Canada subsidiary will be the company’s top revenue-contributor within two years.

4. BioSyent (TSXV:RX)

Year-on-year gain: 10.07 percent
Market cap: C$146.89 million
Share price: C$12.90

BioSyent is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on in-licensing or acquiring established, high-margin healthcare products for the Canadian and international markets. Its growth is anchored by brands in iron health and women’s wellness. Its flagship brand, FeraMAX, has been Canada’s leading iron supplement for over a decade.

The company’s 2024 acquisition of Tibella, a treatment for menopausal symptoms, has been a major growth driver. According to its Q3 earnings report. BioSyent’s sales grew 19 percent year-over-year in Canada and 94 percent in the international market.

5. NurExone Biologic (TSXV:NRX)

Year-on-year gain: 6.45 percent
Market cap: C$47.54 million
Share price: C$0.66

NurExone Biologic is behind ExoTherapy, a drug-delivery platform that uses exosomes, which are nano-sized extracellular vesicles, to create treatments for central nervous system disorders, spinal cord injuries and traumatic brain injuries. It is a less invasive alternative to cell transplantation, which requires surgery and carries the risk of rejection.

NurExone’s first nano-drug, ExoPTEN, uses a proprietary sIRNA sequence delivered with the ExoTherapy platform to treat spinal cord injuries. ExoPTEN received orphan drug designation from the US FDA in October 2023.

The company expects to initiate its Phase 1/2a first-in-human trial for acute spinal cord injury in the second half of 2026, targeting patients with traumatic injuries.

It continues to make significant progress, with recent preclinical studies demonstrating strong, dose-dependent vision recovery in glaucoma models and improved motor function in spinal cord injury models.

The company announced plans for a US exosome production facility in Indianapolis, Indiana, in September. According to the release, ‘The GMP compliant site would produce exosomes both for NurExone’s therapeutic pipeline and for a growing business-to-business opportunity in regenerative aesthetics.’

In December, the company began planning for small-scale production of ExoPTEN in Israel to support its clinical trial.

Battery energy storage systems to drive lithium growth

Energy storage is emerging as the fastest-growing pillar of battery demand, with major implications for the lithium market heading into 2026. Indeed, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Iola Hughes, growth in this segment is accelerating well ahead of the broader battery market.

“We’re expecting about 44 percent growth (in 2025),” she said. That’s compared with roughly 25 percent growth across total battery demand. As a result, energy storage is set to account for about a quarter of total global battery demand in 2025, a share that is rising rapidly. The shift is even more pronounced in the US, where Hughes expects storage to make up a significant “35 to 40 percent of battery demand in the next few years.”

That growth is being driven by falling costs and the growing role of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry, which Hughes described as the dominant technology in stationary storage.

“It very much is the story of LFP right now,” she said, pointing to recent innovation and lower costs, which have helped to make LFP “the best chemistry” for most storage applications.

Globally, deployment remains highly concentrated. China and the US account for roughly 87 percent of cumulative grid-scale storage installations, but new markets are emerging quickly.

Saudi Arabia, Hughes noted, has surged from effectively zero to the world’s third largest market in a matter of months, deploying around 11 gigawatt-hours in the first quarter alone. “That really goes to show just how early this market is in its story,” she said; it also indicates how quickly new sources of battery demand can materialize.

Cost declines sit at the core of the expansion. Fully integrated storage systems in China are now approaching, and in some cases falling below, US$100 per kilowatt-hour. Hughes said this has fundamentally changed the economics of storage, making deployments viable even as policy support tightens. “The prices are so much cheaper, the economics are a lot stronger, even in a normal, unsubsidized environment,” she said.

In the US, growth remains concentrated in a handful of states — led by California and Texas — but Hughes stressed how early stage the market still is. New Mexico, now the fifth largest storage market, is built on just a few projects.

At the same time, the scale of energy storage projects is increasing rapidly. Giga-scale installations, defined as projects larger than 1 gigawatt-hour, are moving from novelty to norm.

Hughes said nine such projects are expected to come online this year, accounting for about 20 percent of battery demand, with more than 20 in the pipeline for next year, representing close to 40 percent.

Policy remains a key variable. While investment tax credits for storage remain in place in the US, Hughes warned that tighter sourcing and eligibility rules are reshaping supply chains, particularly for LFP. The pipeline of announced LFP gigafactories has grown sharply this year — up more than 60 percent — led largely by Korean manufacturers.

“We’re in a much better position when it comes to sourcing of cells for energy storage than we were even three months ago,” she said, though challenges remain around production tax credits and heavy reliance on Chinese cathode supply.

Underlying the storage boom is a broader shift in electricity demand.

After more than a decade of stagnation, US power demand is rising again, driven by data centers, AI, electrification and reshoring of manufacturing. Hughes said estimates now point to electricity demand rising 20 to 30 percent by 2030, placing energy storage at the center of energy security planning. “Storage has become a central topic in the energy security conversation,” she said, adding that its role will only grow.

Looking ahead, Hughes said LFP is likely to dominate shorter-duration storage, while sodium-ion and other battery technologies compete in longer-duration segments.

For the lithium market, the message is clear: as storage scales up in size, geography and strategic importance, it is becoming one of the most powerful demand drivers shaping the sector’s outlook for 2026 and beyond.

Lower costs driving LFP adoption

Howard Klein, RK Equity co-founder and partner, argued that falling costs remain a central driver of LFP battery adoption, reflecting a familiar economic dynamic: as prices decline, demand accelerates.

While lithium is a key input, he suggested that ongoing manufacturing efficiencies and economies of scale are likely to continue pushing LFP battery costs lower over time, potentially offsetting upward pressure from higher lithium prices.

Klein emphasized that even if LFP costs rise modestly, battery storage will remain highly competitive as a source of grid power. Compared with conventional generation options such as gas or coal, storage already offers a compelling cost and performance proposition, he said, and does not rely solely on subsidies to remain economically viable.

Geopolitical instability on the rise

Critical minerals are increasingly at the center of US foreign policy, and that shift is set to reshape the lithium value chain through 2026, according to Klein. He noted that geopolitics now underpins many of Washington’s strategic priorities, from Eastern Europe to Africa and the Arctic.

“The entire foreign policy agenda is largely being driven by critical minerals,” Klein said, citing regions including Ukraine, Russia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Greenland and Canada.

China’s willingness to weaponize its dominance in key supply chains has sharpened that focus.

On that note, Klein pointed to Beijing’s renewed rare earths export restrictions in October, noting that these measures were applied globally, not just against the US.

“They showed that they wield a significant negotiating stick, and they’re willing to use it,” he said.

In Klein’s view, that move has triggered a forceful response from western governments. “I think they’ve overplayed their hand to some degree, because now you’ve had this very big reaction from the US.”

That reaction is translating into a renewed push to localize and reshore critical mineral supply chains — an effort that has gained rare bipartisan backing in Washington.

“Unlike so many other things in America, which are hyper-partisan, both sides agree we need to resolve this,” Klein said, adding that the policy momentum will continue to shape the lithium industry.

While rare earths remain the immediate pressure point, Klein said the policy lens is widening. The US recently added 10 minerals to its critical minerals list, which now stands at a total of 60. Lithium, he said, sits high on that agenda, not out of enthusiasm for the metal itself, but because of its role in batteries.

“It’s an understanding by the government that batteries and battery technology are very, very important, and the entire battery supply chain needs to be supported,” Klein said. That support extends beyond lithium to graphite, manganese, nickel, cobalt and battery components such as anodes and cathodes.

The approach is increasingly coordinated across western economies. Klein described it as “a G7 effort,” with the EU and Canada aligned alongside the US through a mix of bilateral and multilateral initiatives.

That coordination is already translating into capital flows. He pointed to US-backed progress at Thacker Pass, EU funding for Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL,OTC Pink:VULNF) and a 360 million euro grant for European Metals Holdings (LSE:EMH,ASX:EMH,OTCQB:EMHLF) as early examples. Canada, he added, is also ramping up support.

“Canada announced C$6 billion over 26 investments,” Klein said, adding that more announcements are likely by the time the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention rolls around in March.

Klein sees geopolitics, industrial policy and supply chain security converging into powerful lithium tailwinds. “This is a super hot topic,” he said, and one that is likely to drive increased lithium-related activity well into 2026.

Should the US build a strategic lithium reserve?

To dilute China’s grip on the sector, Klein is advocating for a strategic lithium reserve in the US as a more effective and market-neutral alternative to company-specific subsidies. He argues that the industry’s core challenge is not demand, but extreme price volatility caused by global oversupply and what he describes as non-market behavior, which has driven prices below sustainable levels and distorted investment signals across the sector.

“The problem in lithium is volatile prices — prices below the marginal cost, catastrophically low prices that put companies out of business,” he said, pointing to persistent oversupply as the primary distortion.

In Klein’s view, a reserve would act as a counterweight by creating steady, large-scale demand that stabilizes prices within a sustainable range. “The main focus is to stabilize price … not at a super high level, but at a level where companies can make an economic return,” he said. That stability, he added, is essential to incentivize investment in mines, processing and conversion facilities across the US, Canada and allied jurisdictions.

Unlike targeted government support, Klein said a reserve would allow the market to determine which projects succeed.

“I want the market to decide which projects and companies are the best, not necessarily the government,” he said, noting the diversity of competing lithium resources, from US clay and brine projects to Canadian hard-rock deposits.

A more predictable price environment with fewer large swings would lower the cost of capital and give private investors greater confidence to finance viable projects.

Klein stressed that a lithium reserve should not be confused with a stockpile.

“People use ‘stockpile’ and ‘reserve’ like they’re the same thing, and they’re not,” he said. While a stockpile focuses on availability for emergencies, a reserve is designed as a market-stabilizing mechanism that can buy and sell material to smooth volatility. Availability, he said, is a secondary benefit.

He sees the concept as most relevant for mid-sized, fast-growing markets like lithium, graphite and other battery materials that lack deep futures markets and long-term hedging tools.

“Those are the markets that could be amenable to a reserve,” he said, contrasting them with large, liquid commodities like copper or very small, niche minerals tied mainly to military use.

Looking longer term, Klein said a lithium reserve aligns closely with the growth of EVs, energy storage, data centers and grid electrification, as well as geopolitical efforts to diversify supply chains away from China.

“This is no longer just a renewables or EV thing — this is national security, clean energy and building an electro-state,” he said, arguing that reducing volatility would make it easier for automakers, utilities and manufacturers to commit capital without fear of being caught on the wrong side of wild price swings.

North American cooperation key for lithium

Gerardo Del Real, publisher at Digest Publishing, also highlighted the impact of geopolitics on the lithium value chain, emphasizing the need for North American coordination to reduce reliance on dominant producers like China.

“I think this is the path towards that. It has to happen,” he said, noting that collaboration between the US, Canada and potentially Mexico could strengthen regional supply security and reduce vulnerability to global disruptions.

Del Real framed the issue in broader energy terms, pointing to the strategic value of domestic resources: “If we are serious as a country and as a region in being somewhat independent from China and from the Russians … we have a luxury of resources in the US, in Canada … there could be a very powerful path forward.”

On market dynamics, he suggested investors are focused on timing and catalysts, with policy shifts, demand surprises or supply disruptions likely to drive sentiment in 2026.

He also warned that the market may be underestimating the importance of coordinated regional supply initiatives as a factor shaping pricing and project economics.