The Nifty traded in a broadly sideways and range-bound manner throughout the previous week and ended the week with a modest decline. The Index oscillated within a narrow 276-point range, between 25144.60 on the higher end and 24918.65 on the lower end, before settling mildly lower. The India VIX declined by 3.60% over the week to 11.39, suggesting continued complacency in the markets. On a weekly basis, Nifty ended with a net loss of 181.45 points or (-0.72%).

The Nifty is presently consolidating just below a key resistance zone after attempting a breakout above a rising channel. This zone, between 25100 and 25350, has proven to be a supply area where profit-taking has emerged. While the broader trend remains intact and the Nifty is above key moving averages, it is still within a complex zone of consolidation. This pause in momentum comes after a sharp up move from the lows near 21743 in April. A strong breakout above the 25265 –25350 zone, with a closing confirmation, may resume the uptrend. Conversely, a sustained move below 24750 could trigger incremental weakness and drag the Nifty towards lower supports.

 As we head into the new week, the markets may see a cautious start amid the current range-bound setup. The immediate resistance is at 25150, followed by 25400. On the lower side, the key support zones are placed at 24750 and further near 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 56.54 and remains neutral without showing any divergence against price. It has made a fresh 14-period low, which is bearish. The MACD remains above its signal line on the weekly chart, continuing to indicate a positive crossover. No significant candlestick formation was observed for the week.

From a pattern analysis perspective, Nifty is trading just below the upper bound of a rising channel that it had briefly broken out of. With the Index slipping below the support levels of 25000-25150, it faces resistance at this zone again, failing to follow through on the breakout. Price action is still above the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, maintaining a bullish undertone from a medium-term perspective. However, the ongoing sideways action indicates a lack of fresh directional conviction.

Given the current technical structure, it would be prudent for traders to remain selective and protect profits at higher levels. The markets are not displaying signs of aggressive strength, and unless there is a convincing move above 25350, a stock-specific approach with tight risk management is advised. Traders may avoid aggressive fresh buying until a directional move is clearly established. Cautious optimism, with a focus on stocks exhibiting stronger relative strength, is the ideal approach for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Media and the Metal Index have rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Midcap 100, Realty, and PSU Bank Index are also inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Bank, PSE, and the Financial Services Index are inside the weakening quadrant. They may experience a decline in relative performance compared to the broader markets.

The Nifty Services Sector Index, Pharma, Consumption, and the FMCG Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. Among these groups, the Pharma Index shows improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The IT Index is inside the improving quadrant; it continues to improve its relative momentum against the benchmark. The Auto Index, which is also inside the improving quadrant, is seen deteriorating in relative momentum.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Sector Rotation Stalls, Tech Remains King

Despite a slight rise in the S&P 500 over the past week, the sector rotation landscape is presenting an intriguing picture. For the first time in recent memory, we’re seeing absolutely no changes in the composition of the sector ranking — not just in the top five, but across the board. Will this stability kick off a return to a period of more significant trends in relative strength and a return to outperformance for the portfolio?

1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
5. (5) Materials – (XLB)
6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
7. (7) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
8. (8) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
9. (9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Technology

The tech sector continues to flex its muscles, moving up on the price ratio scale while maintaining a stable momentum around 103. This sustained strength is a clear indication that tech remains the sector to beat in the current market environment.

On the daily RRG, we’re seeing a nice rotation backup for tech while inside the weakening quadrant, a sign of strength that confirms the move on the weekly RRG. The raw RS line for tech is climbing almost straight up, reflecting very strong RRG lines. There might be a slight loss of momentum, but make no mistake, tech is still the strongest player in the game.

Industrials

Industrials is currently rotating out of the leading quadrant and sits on the verge of moving into weakening. However, it’s crucial to note that it still holds the second-highest rank based on the RS ratio. This positioning suggests that the odds for a rotation back up towards the leading quadrant are still in play.

The daily RRG shows industrials confirming its strength with a move further into the leading quadrant, moving up on the RS ratio scale while keeping stable momentum.

After breaking out of overhead resistance, the price chart continues higher, and a new higher low is visible on the relative strength line. This keeps the RS ratio line at elevated levels, though the RS momentum line is still moving lower just above 100. If this RS line can maintain a series of higher highs or higher lows, I expect the RS momentum line to bottom out soon and follow the RS ratio higher.

Communication Services

The communication services sector is positioned inside the weakening quadrant on the weekly RRG but has hooked back to the left and is now even lower on the RS ratio scale. It’s moving towards the lagging corner, which is a concerning trend for its top 5 position.

On the daily RRG, communication services have moved into the lagging quadrant. It has started to slow down on the negative momentum, but we need a rotation back up on this daily RRG into the improving quadrant and back to leading to have that weekly tail curl back up to its leading quadrant as well.

The price chart shows the sector holding up after breaking higher, with a pullback now finding support at the level of old resistance, respecting the rule that old resistance is expected to work as support going forward. The problem child here is the raw RS line, which has fallen below its rising support line. This is taking its toll on the RRG lines, with both RS ratio and RS momentum rolling over and starting to move down.

Financials

Financials are inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG, moving at a negative heading. This means that a significant amount of strength is needed from the daily tail to keep this sector within the top five.

On the price chart, financials are playing around with overhead resistance around 52, with a small consolidation area and a pennant-like formation suggesting more upside potential on the price chart.

However, this is not confirmed on the relative strength chart, where the RS line has broken its rising trend and is moving lower.

Materials

Materials are also inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG and traveling a negative heading, like financials. Here, also, strength is needed from the daily teams to keep the sector inside the top five.

Materials are holding up on the price chart after a break that could be described as a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The relative strength line remains contained within the boundaries of its falling channel, but hugging the falling resistance line.

We need a break higher to turn that trend around. Only an upward breakout of that relative downtrend will turn the RRG lines around and provide a lifeline for materials to maintain its position inside the top five.

Portfolio Performance

The portfolio continues to lag the S&P 500, currently sitting around 8% behind. It seems to be stabilizing for now, but it’s not exactly what we want, of course. A drawdown of around 8-10% is not unprecedented, based on historical backtests; however, it’s somewhat disappointing that it occurs right when we begin operating in a semi-live environment.

That said, the fact that we’re now stable with no changes after a period of significant volatility over recent months could be a sign that we’re ready to enter a new period with stable relative trends that can bring the portfolio back to outperformance.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.

This video originally premiered on July 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Even with a few short-lived roller coaster rides, the stock market had a strong week. Though there was some selling on Friday, the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed up over the week as a whole, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed lower by 0.07%.

Earnings season has started on a positive note, with big banks and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) reporting better-than-expected earnings. Inflation remains relatively tame and the labor market remains resilient. This has helped fuel the stock market’s higher trajectory, with sectors such as Technology, Industrials, and Financials showing strong upward moves.  Even small-caps are hanging in there, although they have pulled back a bit.

This price action supports broad participation in the market. The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($SPXEW) is also holding strong, trading above its 20-day exponential moving average. This tells us that participation isn’t limited to a handful of giants.

A Look Under the Hood

Overall growth still takes center stage and, so far, July is following its seasonality pattern. The seasonality chart below shows that in the last 10 years, the return in July was positive every year, with an average gain of 3.30%.

FIGURE 1. SEASONALITY CHART OF THE S&P 500. July is a strong month for the index, but August, September, and October paint a different picture.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Switching to a same-scale line chart (with a few years removed for clarity) you can see that even in 2020 and 2022, when the S&P 500 was in negative territory, July was still a strong month.

FIGURE 2. SAME-SCALE SEASONALITY CHART FOR S&P 500 FROM 2016 TO 2025. July is a strong month for stocks, although some years the latter part of the month has seen a decline.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seasonality shifts notably as we move into late summer and early fall. That doesn’t guarantee a weak August, but it does argue for staying alert. It’s like driving into a stretch of winding road. You don’t slam the brakes, you just keep both hands on the wheel.

How to Track the Overall Market’s Performance

For a bird’s-eye view, the StockCharts Market Summary is your go-to page, but, after drilling down, one chart I often visit in my Market Analysis ChartList is the 3-year weekly chart of the S&P 500, with its Bullish Percent Index (BPI) and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P  500 WITH MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS. From a weekly perspective, the S&P 500 is still trending higher. Breadth indicators support the bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The trend is still higher, although the range between the open and close is relatively narrow. The BPI is above 50 but is flattening out, and the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is also declining. Neither breadth indicator suggests we’ll see a massive selloff in the coming days.

The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is low, and investor sentiment leans bullish (you can confirm this in the Sentiment panel of the Market Summary page).

Will Growth Lead For the Rest of the Year?

There are lots of variables that can change from now to the end of the year, from government policy to geopolitical tensions. These changes will be reflected in the market breadth and sentiment charts.

Tip: StockCharts members can download the Market Summary ChartPack to include the charts from the page in their ChartLists. You need to keep an eye on these charts for leading signals of change in the market’s price action.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

Stock Market Weekly Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,342.19 (-0.07%)
• S&P 500: 6,296.79 (+0.59%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 20,895 (+1.51%)
• $VIX: 16.41 (+0.06%)
• Best performing sector for the week: Technology
• Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks:  AST Spacemobile, Inc.(ASTS); Nuscale Power Corp. (SMR); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); Avis Budget Group (CAR); Symbiotic, Inc. (SYM)

On the Radar Next Week

• June Home Sales
• June Durable Goods Orders
• Several Fed speeches
• Earnings from Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), AT&T Inc. (T), Intel Corp. (INTC), International Business Machines (IBM), and many more.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Tom as he covers key inflation data, earnings season highlights, and sector rotation trends. He breaks down recent price action in major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with a close look at the 20-day moving average as a support gauge. Tom spotlights standout industry groups such as gambling, semiconductors, software, and aerospace, and shares charts of top-performing stocks like Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and PNC. Tom highlights under-performing areas like insurance brokers and home improvement, then reviews several strong earnings reactions, including Monarch Casino’s 15% after-hours gain.

This video was published on July 17, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link. 

There is no denying that the broad markets remain in a resilient uptrend off the April 2025 low.  But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from many years of analyzing charts, it’s to remain vigilant during bullish phases.  Even though I’ll assume the uptrend is still intact, that doesn’t mean I can stop looking for signs of potential weakness!

With that in mind, here are three bearish candle patterns that often pop up during bullish market phases.  By looking for these patterns in the stocks and ETFs that you own, you can hopefully get ahead of any corrective moves and take profits before it’s too late!

The Shooting Star Pattern

If you see a long upper shadow, little to no lower shadow, and the open and close are close together near the bottom of the day’s range, then you have identified a shooting star candle pattern.  If you’re familiar with the hammer candle pattern, then you can think of this as a hammer candle but basically everything is upside down!

The chart of AT&T (T) has featured a number of shooting star candles so far in 2025.  Just before the selloff in early April, there was a clear shooting star candle after the March rally.  Then during the rally off the April low, a shooting star pattern in early May suggested that the uptrend phase was nearing an exhaustion point.

The Bearish Engulfing Pattern

One of the most recognizable patterns in the candlestick library, the bearish engulfing pattern represents a short-term rotation from accumulation to distribution.  Basically, a large up candle is followed by a large down candle, and the second day’s “real body” (the open-to-close range) engulfs the range of the first day’s real body.  

Look at the strength in the uptrend for Paramount Global (PARA) going into early June.  Then just before the 4th of July weekend, a bearish engulfing pattern suggests a change of character as the bears take control.  It’s worth noting that these candle patterns are not long-term signals, but rather indicate short-term dynamics.  So a bearish engulfing pattern suggests weakness for the next one to three bars.

The Evening Star Pattern

If you took the bearish engulfing pattern, and then added another small candle in the middle of those two days, then you’d have an evening star pattern.  Now most candlestick textbooks will tell you that the “star” day in the middle should include a gap, so there’s no overlap between that day’s range and the other two candles.  In practice, I’ve found most people ignore this detail and rather look for patterns with enough similarities to this basic structure.

Going back to the AT&T chart we used earlier, we can see an evening star pattern at the end of June.  A big day is followed soon after by a big down day, with a small candle in the middle.  This is a great example of where additional weakness led the price below the 50-day moving average, serving to confirm the bearish outlook as represented by the evening star pattern.

It’s so easy to become complacent during an extended bull market rally.  Investors that regularly scan for bearish candle patterns have an edge, as they can anticipate potential turning points before the uptrend changes in dramatic fashion to a new downtrend phase!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Join Grayson as he shares how to streamline your analysis using custom ChartStyles. He demonstrates how to create one-click ChartStyles tailored to your favorite indicators, use style buttons to quickly switch between clean, focused views, and build a chart-leveling system that reduces noise and helps you stay locked in on what matters most.

This video originally premiered on July 16, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

This week, Joe analyzes all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks in a rapid-fire format, offering key technical takeaways and highlighting potential setups in the process. Using his multi-timeframe momentum and trend approach, Joe shows how institutional investors assess relative strength, chart structure, ADX signals, and support zones. From Boeing’s triple bottom to Nvidia’s powerful trend, not to mention Microsoft’s key pullback level, this session is packed with insights for traders looking to stay in sync with the market’s leaders and laggards.

Joe has been working with institutional portfolio managers for the past 35 years, and this video shows the type of reads he gives to them during their phone calls.

The video premiered on July 16, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page. 

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Relatively healthy earnings reports from the big banks and a June inflation report that came in line with analyst expectations didn’t give the stock market much of a lift, as the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) both ended the day lower. The only major index to shine was the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), which closed at a record high.

Technology stocks were the stars of the show. It wasn’t a blowout rally, but the sector still managed to finish in the green. Why? There were a couple of key developments that gave tech a nice boost.

First, semiconductors got some breathing room. Restrictions on chip sales to China were relaxed, and that gave big names like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) a reason to rally. 

Second, there’s a push from the government to invest in AI and energy initiatives in Pennsylvania. One of the biggest winners was Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), which jumped 6.9% — the biggest percentage gain in the S&P 500. You can see from the StockCharts MarketCarpet for the S&P 500 stocks that, besides the top-weighted stocks in the index, it was mostly a sea of red.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPET FOR TUESDAY, JULY 15. Technology was the clear leader, with the largest cap-weighted stocks leading the sector higher.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Semiconductors Show Strength

If you’ve been watching semiconductors, you may have noticed that the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) has been on a roll. Since April, the ETF has stayed above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). The relative performance of XSD against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been improving, and its relative strength index (RSI) is at around 62, an indication that momentum is at healthy levels (see chart below). It’s important to note that since May, the RSI has remained above 50, which is supportive of XSD’s upside movement.

Note: StockCharts members can access this chart from the Market Summary page or the Market Summary ChartPack (under US Industries > Bellwether Industries).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XSD. Since April, XSD has been trending higher and is now trading above its 21-day EMA.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

How to Track Semiconductor Stocks

If the environment for semiconductors remains strong, there could be more upside for stocks in that space. A simple way to keep tabs on the stocks using StockCharts tools is to create a ChartList of semiconductor stocks you’re interested in owning.

• Begin by heading to the US Sectors panel in the Market Summary page or the Sector Summary page on your Dashboard.
• Click Sector Drill-Down > Technology Sector Fund > Semiconductors.
• You’ll see the list of semiconductor stocks that make up the industry group.

From there, I prefer to sort the data by the Universe (U) column, starting with the large caps and then the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score to find large-cap technically strong stocks. You can then view the charts on the list. If you see a chart that appears to have a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, you can save it to your Semiconductor ChartList.

FIGURE 3. SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS TO REVIEW. The sector drill-down will uncover stocks in leading sectors or industry groups. Scroll down the list to identify charts that meet your investment or trading criteria. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As you review the charts in your ChartList, you can identify potential support and resistance levels and set alerts to notify you when prices reach your key levels. It’s a great way to stay proactive.

The Bottom Line

This type of top-down analysis helps you stay one step ahead of the market. Start with the broad market, then narrow down to sectors, then industry groups, and then individual stocks. By taking a proactive approach to managing your investments, you’re always preparing for the stock market’s next move.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

• The breakout level near $112k.
• A strong historical support level at around $110k.
• Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.