A lot has happened in the stock market since Liberation Day, keeping us on our toes. Volatility has declined significantly, stocks have bounced back from their April 7 low, and the economy has remained resilient.

If you’re still feeling uncertain, though, you’re not alone. The stock market’s in a bit of a “wait and see” mode, going through a period of consolidation as it figures out its next move. 

The S&P 500 ($SPX) is hesitating to hit 6000 despite reclaiming its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This indecision can leave investors feeling stuck in “no man’s land.” And it’s not just the S&P 500, either; most major indexes are in a similar scenario, except for small caps, which have been left behind. This could be because the market has priced in a delay in interest rate cut expectations.

Tech Is Taking the Lead

If you drill down into the major indexes, there is some action you shouldn’t ignore. Tech stocks have started to take the lead again, although momentum has been lacking. Over the past month, the Technology sector has been up over 4%.

FIGURE 1. S&P SECTOR ETF PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. Technology is the clear leader with a gain of over 4%.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. It’s encouraging to see tech stocks regain their leadership position. Tech is a major force behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). The daily chart of the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) shows the ETF has been trying to break above a consolidation range it has been stuck in since mid-May.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLK. Although the ETF has barely broken above its consolidation range, we need to see greater momentum to confirm a follow through to the upside.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Nothing is standing in the way of XLK reaching its all-time high, but the momentum isn’t quite there yet. The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) is below 70 and looks to be stalling, pretty much in line with the overall stock market’s price action.

So, what’s the market waiting for? Maybe a catalyst, like Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This week’s JOLTS, ADP, and ISM Services data didn’t move the needle much, but the NFP report could be the game changer.

S&P 500 Technical Forecast

Where could the S&P 500 go from here? Let’s dive into the weekly chart.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The index is spitting distance to its all-time high. A break above the November high would clear the path to new highs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 broke above its 40-week SMA on the week of May 12 and has held above it. However, it has been in a consolidation for the last month, similar to that of XLK.

The S&P 500 is approaching its November high of 6017. A break above it could push it toward new highs. On the flip side, if it slides below the 40-week SMA, it would be a cause for concern and could mean the May 12 gap-up could get filled. Keep an eye on the 5688 level. If the S&P 500 pulls back close to that level and turns around, it would be a healthy correction — an opportunity to buy the dip. A further downside move would mean exercising patience or unloading some of your positions.

What’s Going On With Gold and Bonds?

While stocks are grinding sideways, gold prices are rising, and bond prices are showing green shoots. This price action tells us that investors could be bracing for slower growth ahead. It’s not something to panic about — just something to watch.

You can get a quick look at what gold, bonds, and all the major indexes are doing by checking out the StockCharts Market Summary page and Your Dashboard.

So, what should you do?

Hold, add, or fold? That’s the big question. The market needs time to digest a lot, from economic data to geopolitical risks and policy headlines. Keep checking in and monitor the sectors, observe index performance, and note how other areas of the market, such as precious metals and bonds, are reacting.

 Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Joe walks through a comprehensive lesson on using the ADX (Average Directional Index) as part of a technical analysis strategy. Joe explains the key components of the ADX indicator, how to interpret DI+ and DI- lines, and how to identify strong or weak trends in the market. He also covers how to combine ADX with price action and volatility to improve timing and trading decisions.

In addition, Joe analyzes SPY, QQQ, IWM, and individual stocks like AMPX, UNH, and more, focusing on trend conditions, MACD, price structure, and key moving averages.

The video premiered on June 4, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

In this market update, Frank breaks down recent developments across the S&P 500, crypto markets, commodities, and international ETFs. He analyzes bullish and bearish chart patterns, identifies key RSI signals, and demonstrates how “Go No Go Charts” can support your technical analysis. You’ll also hear updates on Ethereum, Bitcoin, the Spain ETF, silver miners, USO (oil), and sector ETFs like XLP and XLV.

This video originally premiered on June 3, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

In this video, Dave shares his weekly stock scan strategy used to identify bullish stock trends. He illustrates how to set up this powerful scan, reveals the tips and tricks he uses to identify the most constructive patterns, and explains the four winning chart setups that tend to come up week after week.

Whether you’re a beginner or seasoned trader, this guide will enhance your charting process and help you uncover winning trade setups using technical analysis.

This video originally premiered on June 3, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

In this video, Mary Ellen highlights key areas of the stock market that gained strength last week, including Staples and Aerospace stocks. She also shares several Dividend Aristocrat stocks that can help stabilize your portfolio in times of market volatility. Whether you’re seeking defensive plays or looking to align with sector rotation trends, this video provides practical insights to strengthen your trading strategy.

This video originally premiered May 30, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Earnings season may be winding down, but a few standout names could still make headlines this week. If you’re looking for potential moves, keep an eye on these three stocks — Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), and Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO).

Each of these names is at a pretty interesting inflection point right now. It might be worth waiting to see how things play out before making any big bets.

Dollar Tree (DLTR): Quiet Comeback with Room to Run?

Dollar Tree (DLTR) broke out of a long-term downtrend and, as of the last quarter, is back above key moving averages. Many of the beaten-down discount chains, such as Five Below (FIVE) and Dollar General (DG), have started to reverse major downtrends. This week, we will see if earnings momentum can keep going, as DLTR stock has rallied 21% year-to-date.

Investors will be looking for insight into how DLTR is navigating the transition after the $1 billion Family Dollar sale (yes, they paid $8.5 billion in 2015) and how its core stores are performing in the current economic environment. The last two quarters have been relatively calm, as DLTR stabilized with minor gains of 3.1% and 1.9%. That stability comes after a three-quarter losing streak, with average losses of -13.7%.

From a technical standpoint, DLTR made its big move in mid-April as it broke out of a longer-term neutral range and a long-term downtrend. The stock price has eclipsed the 50- and 200-day moving averages and seems to be back on the right track.

The breakout of the rectangular bottom gives an upside target of roughly $98 a share, so there is room for DLTR to run. That move would fill the gap created last September and bring shares into a stronger resistance area around $100. On the downside, there may be an opportunity to enter DLTR, as we have a potential scenario where old resistance becomes support, giving an entry level around $79.50/$80. That would be a good risk/reward set-up for those who may have missed the initial breakout.

Overall, the stock still has room to run, but most of this upside move may already be in the stock, as the price approached an overbought condition with much overhead resistance ahead.

CrowdStrike (CRWD): Heating Up Before Earnings

CrowdStrike (CRWD) has returned from the ashes after last year’s Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) computer outage that caused over 7000 cancelled flights. As it heads into this week’s earnings, shares are trading just under all-time highs.

The cybersecurity company has seen shares decline over the past two results, but that hasn’t stopped its continued momentum. The stock averages a one-day move of +/- 8.5%, so expect volatility.

Technically, CRWD comes into the week at an intriguing pivot point. After breaking out to new highs, the stock pulled back to its old resistance areas from which it broke above.  Will old resistance become support, or are we looking at a potential bull trap?

The relative strength index (RSI) indicates there may be room to run. We have seen some extreme overbought conditions in the past, and we are not there yet. A solid beat and guide could see additional momentum in what continues to be one of the top stocks within the cybersecurity sector.

Speaking of strength, CRWD is shining on a relative basis. It’s up 36.7% year-to-date, outperforming CIBR, the biggest cybersecurity ETF in CIBR, which is up 12.8%. That said, downside risk could be steep given the recent run. Stepping in front of this stock ahead of results could be costly. On weakness, wait for a better risk/reward entry and look for support just around $405.

Broadcom (AVGO): Ready to Step Out of Nvidia’s Shadow?

Broadcom (AVGO) is Nvidia’s baby brother. It is in the $1 trillion market cap club, a top holding in both the Semiconductor ETF (SMH), the Technology ETF (XLK), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).

AVGO has grown mightily in NVDA’s shadow for years now. Shares have rallied just over 500% from their 2022 lows, which pales to the 1250+% rally in Nvidia. However, over the past 52 weeks, AVGO shares have risen 82% compared to Nvidia’s 23% gain.

Now that we’ve seen how price action settled out with NVDA, what could this mean for AVGO?

Technically, if AVGO wanted to step out of NVDA’s shadows, this would be the chance to do so and lead the semiconductors higher. However, momentum is waning, and we continue to see large caps struggle to make new highs.

The table is set for a potentially large breakout. AVGO is at a key resistance area just under $250. It couldn’t break through it last week, but could earnings be the catalyst for getting it over the top? Given the overbought conditions and tough market environment, it should be a challenge. You may be able to buy this stock on a dip and wait for the rest of the market to catch up as we look for more clarity on tariff policy. Look for a pullback to the $220 area to add to or enter the name.

Long-term investors should ignore the noise to come. AVGO has suffered through the worst and should break out in due time. It just may not be this time.

Over the past five sessions, the Indian equity markets headed nowhere and continued consolidating in a defined range. In the previous weekly note, it was categorically expected that the markets might stay devoid of any directional bias unless they either take out the upper edge or violate the lower edge of the consolidation zone. In line with the analysis, the Nifty oscillated in a 401.90-point range over the past five days. The volatility also retraced; the India Vix came off by 6.95% to 16.08 on a weekly basis. While staying absolutely range-bound, the headline index Nifty 50 closed with a minor weekly loss of 102.45 points (-0.41%).

As we step into the new week, the markets find themselves in a defined trading range, more toward the edge of the pattern support on the weekly chart. The Nifty appears to continue being in a well-defined trading range between 25100 and 24500 levels. This also implies that a directional trend would emerge only if the Nifty takes out 25100 convincingly or ends up violating the 24500 level. Unless either of these two things happens, the markets will remain devoid of directional bias and will continue staying in this defined range. The present technical structure makes it even more important to maintain a steadfast focus on protecting profits at higher levels and the rotation of sectors where a likely leadership change is visible.

The coming week is expected to see the levels of 25000 and 25175 acting as resistance points. The supports come in at 24500 and 24380 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 59.02; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that after forming the most recent swing high at 25116, the Nifty has resisted this level for two subsequent weeks. This makes the level of 25100-25150 an important hurdle for the Nifty. Secondly, the Index has closed just at the support of an upward rising trendline; if this gets violated, the markets may see some more corrective retracement. Overall, the zone of 24500-24600 remains a crucial support area for the markets.

While the Nifty stays in the 25100-24500 zone and consolidates, focusing on protecting profits at higher levels would be wise. While the market keeps its underlying trend intact, it continues to remain prone to some extended corrective retracement until the levels of 25100 are taken out on the upside convincingly. During this phase, it makes more sense to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels and stay highly selective in making fresh purchases. While limiting the purchases to favorably rotating sectors, a cautious outlook is recommended for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index is the only Index inside the leading quadrant that continues to improve its relative momentum against the broader markets. The other sectors present inside the leading quadrant are PSE, Infrastructure, Consumption, and FMCG, and these groups show continued paring of relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Commodities and the Nifty Bank Index have rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Financial Services and the Services sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. It is likely to relatively underperform along with the Pharma Index which also continues to languish inside this quadrant. The IT Index is also inside the lagging quadrant, but is seen sharply improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Realty, Media, Energy, Midcap 100, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant. They are likely to continue improving their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Discover the top 10 stock charts to watch this month with Grayson Roze and David Keller, CMT. From breakout strategies to moving average setups, the duo walk through technical analysis techniques using relative strength, momentum, and trend-following indicators.

In this video, viewers will also gain insight into key market trends and chart patterns that could directly impact your trading strategy. Whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, this breakdown will help you stay one step ahead.

This video originally premiered on May 30, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

There’s no denying that the equity markets have taken on a decisively different look and feel in recent weeks.  We’ve compared the charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, as well as leading growth stocks like Nvidia, to an airplane experiencing a “power-on stall”.  Basically, the primary uptrend has been paused, but it’s unclear whether we’ll resume the uptrend after a brief corrective period.

I stand by my previous comments that the 200-day moving average, as well as the price gap formed in early May, remains the most important “line in the sand” for this market.  And as long as the S&P 500 and other leading names remain above their 200-day moving averages, then equities are still in decent shape.

One of the key features of this market off the early April has been the dominance of traditionally “offensive” sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary.  But are these leading sectors maintaining their leadership role as we progress through the spring months into the summer?

Leading Sectors Off the April Low Starting to Falter

My Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList includes a series of relative strength charts showing the performance of key sectors versus the S&P 500.  When these lines are trending higher, the sector is outperforming the benchmark.  Generally speaking, I’d prefer to own stocks where the relative strength line is trending higher, as that confirms I’m doing better than a passive investment strategy!

Only three sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 index over the last month: technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary.  Notice how two of those sectors, technology and consumer discretionary, are seeing a downturn in relative strength over the last week?  It still may be early to declare a full leadership rotation, but this initial downturn in the relative performance could be a sign of further weakness to come.

Defensive Sectors Showing Early Signs of Strength

So if these leadership sectors are starting to slow down, which sectors are showing an improving relative strength?  Our next chart shows the relative performance of the four traditionally defensive sectors, most of which have turned higher over the last two weeks. 

Again, I’d hesitate to declare this a full and confirmed rotation, but the fact that defensive sectors are improving here suggests investors are beginning to reallocate a bit to more risk-off positions.  Over the next few weeks, improvement in these defensive sectors could provide a clear validation to a “market in correction” thesis.

Relative Rotation Graphs Confirm Defensive Rotation

Of course, when we’re talking about sector rotation, I always want to bring up the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) and benefit from Julius de Kempenaer’s innovative data visualization approach.  First, let’s see how the daily RRG showed the 11 S&P 500 sectors back in early May.

We can see that the Leading quadrant includes those leading sectors such as technology.  In the Lagging quadrant we’ll find pretty much everything else, including all four of the defensive sectors discussed above.  Now let’s fast forward to the current RRG and see how things have rotated.

Now you’ll find health care, consumer staples, and other defensive sectors in the Improving quadrant.  Technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary have now rotated down into the Weakening quadrant.  So the RRG is showing at least an initial rotation away from the sectors that have been leading off the April market low.

One of the most important arguments from the bulls has been the dominance of offensive sectors over the last six weeks.  But as we’ve shown here today, the sector may be changing from a clearly bullish reading to a much more defensive warning sign for investors.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Don’t miss our daily market recap show on YouTube every trading day at 5:00pm ET!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

SIL Silver Miners

SIL was among the leaders yesterday and now is close to triggering this double-bottom bullish pattern. Staying above the 43-mark would target 47. That’s not a big move, but let’s remember that SIL is sporting bullish formations on its longer-term charts, too.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

SIL – Weekly

Firstly, the double-bottom pattern on this weekly log chart annotated in blue remains alive. This objective is up near 49.

Secondly, the area highlighted in green here is the same pattern pictured on the daily chart above. That area is sitting at the very top of a much bigger bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that extends all the way back to 2021. Thus, if the short-term breakout works, it will trigger this one, as well. That target is in the mid-70s…

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

SIL – Monthly

And that green pattern above is part of this MUCH larger, 13-year potential double bottom. We still have a while to go before this one is triggered, but it’s important to keep all of these in the back of our minds.

Anyone who trades or tracks SIL knows that short-term whipsaws are the norm. So, while these breakouts may not be clean, the bullish structures are clear. The bottom line is that if SIL continues to make higher highs and higher lows, the patterns will continue to work.

FIGURE 3. MONTHLY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

USO Crude Oil

USO was among the leaders yesterday, but it’s still trying to bust through its 50-DMA, which has been the sticking point the last few weeks. If it can soon, USO could complete this potential bullish inverse H&S pattern. The upside target would be in the 77-78 range, and that would align with key short-term tops from the last year. First step, push above the 50-day line…

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF US OIL FUND (USO).

NVDA

The obvious question every time NVDA rallies is whether it’s too late to buy.  To get a true sense of the stock’s technical prospects, we need to view it across different charts and time frames.

First, here’s a view of the bullish flag pattern we cited on Tuesday (along with TSLA, GOOGL and META). Given the preceding staircase-like advance, the starting point of the flagpole is subjective. We’re using the early May low given that the stock avoided filling a gap from a few days earlier.

Regardless, the measured move counts to the 161 zone, which would be a new all-time high.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

This second one is a daily chart that extends all the way back to 2010 and shows times when breaking below or above the 200-DMA led to strong, extended moves for the stock. From this angle, the recent 200-day breach didn’t last that long at all, and now NVDA has the chance to once again follow through after breaking back above it over the last few weeks.

FIGURE 6. LONGER-TERM DAILY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

Here’s a weekly, log chart going back to the 2022 low. NVDA has leveraged three major pattern breakouts since then to power the astounding rally the last two-plus years. With the stock last having made a new high last October and being net flat since last July, an eventual push back above the 150-zone could prompt big pattern-breakout number four.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

Lastly, here are the biggest breakouts on this monthly chart that goes back over two decades. Again, looking at it from this viewpoint makes the last 11 months appear like a very small digestive phase, especially compared to the other three on the chart. Thus, the first step will be seeing how well NVDA can hold the opening gap. That’s important for today, but much more important for the days and weeks to come.

FIGURE 8. MONTHLY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).