Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

• The breakout level near $112k.
• A strong historical support level at around $110k.
• Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Dave as he reviews three common candle patterns traders can use to identify potential turning points. From bullish engulfing patterns to evening star patterns, Dave gives insights on how to leverage these powerful candle signals to anticipate market shifts. He also shows combining candle patterns with conventional technical analysis tools can help improve success rates.

This video originally premiered on July 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

I remain very bullish and U.S. stocks have run hard to the upside off the April low with growth stocks leading the way. I expect growth stocks to remain strong throughout the summer months, as they historically do, but we need to recognize that they’ve already seen tremendous upside. Could technology (XLK) names, in particular, use a period of consolidation? Well, if we look at a 5-year weekly chart, the XLK really isn’t that overbought just yet:

The weekly PPO has crossed its centerline and is gaining bullish momentum. The recent price breakout suggests to me that we likely have further to run. And if you look at the weekly RSI, you’ll note that we’ve seen the weekly RSI move well into the 70s and even close to 80 before witnessing a market top or pause. Outside a bit of profit taking, I really don’t see the likelihood of a big selloff here. Keep in mind that the XLK represents 31% of the S&P 500. If the XLK doesn’t slow down, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see any type of meaningful decline in the S&P 500 either.

Growth vs. Value

Growth stocks have historically performed well over the summer months. One way to visualize this is to compare large-cap growth (IWF) to large-cap value (IWD) using a seasonality chart. Check this out:

The average monthly outperformance since 2013 is reflected at the bottom of each month’s column. If you add those numbers for May through August, you get +5.4%. If you add those numbers for the other 8 months combined, you get +0.6%. Clearly, large-cap growth has the tendency to outperform value from May through August. We’re in the growth “sweet spot” right now.

So Should We Lower Our Market Expectations?

I say absolutely not. Yes, we’ve run substantially higher off that April low, but I see more left in the tank. Will we see profit taking from time to time and could we see a period of consolidation? Sure. But I still believe that remaining on the sidelines is a big mistake as plenty of market upside remains. In fact, I see another somewhat forgotten asset class that’s poised to scorch 50% higher or more, possibly over the next 6 months. I’m investing in this area now, as I believe it’s in the early stages of a significant rally, and believe it would be prudent for you to take a look as well. For more information, simply CLICK HERE, provide your name and email address, and I’ll send you a video that explains exactly why I’m favoring this group right now!

Happy trading!

Tom

Is the market flashing early signs of a shift?

In this week’s video, Mary Ellen McGonagle breaks down the subtle but telling moves happening under the surface. From strength in semiconductors, home builders, and energy to surging momentum in Bitcoin and silver, Mary Ellen highlights the sectors gaining traction and the technical setups traders should have on their radar.

She also spots stocks breaking above key moving averages, potential reversal patterns, and discusses actionable insights heading into earnings season.

If you’re looking for timely trade ideas and a roadmap to where money is flowing next, don’t miss this breakdown.

This video premiered on July 11, 2025.

You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

As we navigate the evolving stock market landscape, understanding key sectors and their trends is important, especially during earnings season. This week, the spotlight shines on the Financial sector, with several of the largest banks reporting. Five of the top 10 holdings within the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) are on deck: J.P. Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS). 

This week we will focus on the Financial sector via XLF and zoom in on one of its top components, Goldman Sachs.

The Financial Sector: A Technical Look at XLF

XLF has been outperforming the S&P 500 ($SPX), experiencing new all-time highs, and has been a leading sector in the most recent market rebound.

Now that all banks that were susceptible to the Fed’s stress test have passed with flying colors, questions loom about whether less stringent regulations will lead to more growth. The sector has not experienced much M&A activity, and the IPO market has yet to come back to a healthy level of activity. However, there is hope that a banking renaissance is on the horizon, and maybe this quarter will give a rosier outlook than more recent forecasts.

Technically, XLF looks promising. Shares broke out to new all-time highs ahead of earnings and are now set up with good risk/reward potential for investors. 

The pattern from which it broke out is a bit of a wonky head-and-shoulders pattern. I’d call this a stretch as it isn’t picture perfect, but the price image presented is close enough to set parameters to trade. 

The breakout on a gap to new highs is extremely bullish, and that gap level could be used as a stop-loss to the downside, worst case should be the rising 50-day moving average. Buyers should come back into the sector there on a dip.

Goldman Sachs (GS): A Bellwether

Goldman Sachs, the largest component in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, reports results on Wednesday morning just days after hitting all-time highs. Investors will be looking for any commentary focused on tariffs and margins. 

Has there been any impact on their results, or have concerns about inflation been overblown? Any earnings pressure on their bottom line could cause ripple effects throughout other sectors like industrials, materials, and technology. 

Shares declined 33% then rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that’s where opportunity may lie. Wouldn’t chase it just yet. I would own for the long term, but price action could be very interesting when they report next week. 

One bold prediction — look for a possible stock split announcement. Since their debut in 1999, shares have never split. Seeing the recent price surge and its size in the Dow, that option should be on the table. 

Technically, shares have been on a tremendous run as they’ve rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that may be where the opportunity lies when they report next week. 

The stock has rallied with a series of gaps along the way. Those gaps tell a story, and it’s worth watching the most recent gap from $690 to $700. Each jump higher has not experienced a full retracement — a gap fill, if you will.

The gaps higher have been very bullish. The first large gap — a breakaway gap — started the main part of this rally. We have seen a series of smaller gaps that helped extend the rally. Now, we may be tiring. Watch the $690 level to see if that gap can hold. If it can’t, then there may be more selling pressure over the near term. 

A healthy pullback given the strong bull run is likely, but buyable. A break below $690 could see a swift move lower to the $665 level. If things turn negative, then the rising 50-day moving average, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement level just below $620 would be an ideal entry point from a risk/reward perspective. 

The good news is that any weakness in the stock looks like it should be met with great opportunities to enter the name. The long-term trend is up, and the momentum is there not only in the stock but within the sector. The long-term trader shouldn’t fret earnings; the swing trader may get an opportunity to buy a dip from an overbought condition. The bad news would be that the stock gaps higher again and continues its upward trajectory. 

Beyond Financials: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

While financials take center stage, we want to touch upon another significant company reporting this week: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

JNJ shares have remained relatively flat for the better part of five years. Much of the earnings focus will be on plans to navigate patent expirations. 

Merck acquired Verona last week. The patent cliff will continue to be a hot topic for the entire pharma industry. As for JNJ, it’s confronting the expiration of exclusivity on Stelara, its $10B+ immunology blockbuster drug. The exclusivity expires first in Europe this year and then in the U.S. in 2026.

As for reaction to earnings, don’t expect too much activity. The average move post-results has been +/- 2.05%. Shares have traded lower after five of the last seven times. Shares of the Dow stock are up 8% year-to-date and -9% off their highs.

Technically, there isn’t much to see here. We backed it out to look at price in a five-year weekly range to illustrate that point.

Shares have been in a wide range between roughly $138 to $168 over this lengthy span. Yes, I yawned when I typed this out — it’s that boring. We don’t expect much to change, but there are small setups for a shorter-term swing trader.

The stock, while breaking above the midpoint of this longer-term range, is forming a bullish ascending triangle and has, albeit tight, risk/reward parameters for those looking to trade. 

To the downside, look for the continued near-term uptrend to hold and find support right at the 200-day moving average just below $153. A good entry point in which one could manage risk. 

To the upside, a break above $158 could take shares to their recent highs and slowly and steadily towards the $168 level. The set-up is far from ideal when looking at the longer-term action, but near term, there could be a quick play and maybe, just maybe, shares can finally escape the longer-term neutral range. 

Investing in triple-leveraged ETFs may not be on your radar. But that may change after you watch this video. 

Tom Bowley of EarningsBeats shares how he uses the 3x leveraged ETFs to take advantage of high probability upside moves. Tom shows charts of 3x leveraged ETFs that mirror their benchmark — TNA (Russell 2000), SOXL (Semiconductors), and LABU (Biotech), and maps out how you can use the setups in these charts to multiply your returns. 

With money rotating heavily into growth stocks, investors should be looking for opportunities. Tom shares charts of indexes, sectors, and individual stocks/ETFs that are displaying technical strength and strong accumulation patterns. 

Ready to multiply your returns while the market’s moving higher? Watch Tom chart out the trades he’s making today. 

This video was published on July 10. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page. 

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link. 

Over a number of years working for a large money manager with a rich history of stock picking, I became more and more enamored with the benefits of scanning for constructive price charts regardless of the broad market conditions.  Earlier in my career, as I was first learning technical analysis, I devoured work by stock picking guru Mike Webster and other William O’Neil disciples who advocated for finding strong charts in any market environment.

Given that background, I was super excited this week to apply a true stock picker’s mindset, with the goal of identifying one compelling chart in each of ten S&P 500 sectors.  From Communication Services to Utilities, there are plenty of interesting technical setups and nuances to discuss.  And if you’re wondering why there are only ten charts instead of 11, that’s because I skipped Real Estate.  It’s a smaller sector, which I tend to think of more in terms of sector rotation than specific security selection.

Let’s kick things off with a top-performing chart in Communication Services that is showing all the signs of accumulation.

DoorDash Inc. (DASH)

While the mega cap Magnificent 7 stocks like Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) tend to grab all the headlines, I’m more intrigued by other names in this sector demonstrating positive technical characteristics.  DoorDash has been making higher highs and higher lows, and remains above three upward-sloping moving averages.

The price is above the 21-day exponential moving average, which is above the 50-day simple moving average, which is above the 200-day simple moving average.  Combined with strong but not excessive momentum, along with improving relative strength, and we have a chart that continues to feature bullish signs in July 2025.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

If it seems as if DoorDash is a little too overextended, Booking Holdings is a bit earlier on in its breakout journey.  Here we can see a clear resistance level around $5300, with a breakout and subsequent retest confirming a new uptrend phase.

When a chart like this shows a clear and consistent resistance level, the initial breakout can be quite tempting on the long side.  The subsequent pullback to that same breakout point, followed by new support at the breakout point, serves to validate the breakout and confirm the bullish reading.

With charts like BKNG, I like to use the 21-day exponential moving average as an initial warning sign.  As long as the price remains above this short-term trend mechanism, then the uptrend is still intact.  If and when the price violates this moving average, that’s when I like to review the chart to determine whether the stock still deserves a place in my portfolio.

Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX)

Our final example, Boston Scientific, is one that I would argue still has a bit to prove.  We can observe a clear resistance level around $107.50, which was initially set in February and then retested in May and June.  

This is exactly where I would leverage the Alert Workbench on StockCharts to let me know when the price has finally broken above this crucial resistance level.  I love to save potential breakout candidates to a new ChartList, and then set alerts for if and when the price finally breaks above the entry point.  That way, you’re able to identify an opportunity and develop a simple trading plan up front, and then let StockCharts do the “heavy lifting” and keep a close watch on the price action in the days and weeks to come!

To see the other seven charts in all their glory, head over to the StockCharts TV YouTube channel!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

For those who focus on sector rotation, whether to adjust portfolio weightings or invest directly in sector indexes, you’re probably wondering: Amid the current “risk-on” sentiment, even with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, can seasonality help you better anticipate shifts in sector performance?

Current Sector Performance Relative to SPY

To find out, let’s first look at how sectors are performing relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), our S&P 500 proxy. The StockCharts Market Summary Mini Charts tab in the US Sectors panel shows you sector ETF performance and its relative performance against SPY.

FIGURE 1. MARKET SUMMARY US SECTORS PANEL. The new micro charts feature provides a chart of each sector’s ETF plus its relative performance against SPY, allowing you to gauge a sector’s strength against the broader market.

Looking at each sector chart over a three-month time frame, only two sectors are outperforming relative to SPY:

1. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK): Currently outperforming SPY by 13.85%.
2. Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI): Outpacing SPY by a modest 2.53%.

Spotlight on Technology and Industrials: Leading Sectors in a Risk-On Market

As a side note, Technology and Industrials are two sectors that align with the risk-on narrative. This suggests that the market is currently favoring higher-beta stocks (as XLK’s performance reflects) over safer sectors and that demand for industrial goods is generally rising, a sign investors expect the economy to strengthen.

Understanding Sector Seasonality: What History Tells Us

Now, let’s turn to seasonality. In this context, seasonality refers to the tendency for certain sectors to perform better during specific periods and worse during others. While past performance never guarantees future results, it can help you anticipate how a sector might behave based on historical tendencies, not certainties. 

So, what might the seasonality charts suggest about XLK and XLI in the coming months?.

XLK Seasonality Trends: Tech Sector’s Strongest Months

Take a look at XLK’s 10-year seasonality chart.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLK. While September appears to be tech’s only bearish month from a seasonality perspective, its strongest months are November and July. 

Over 10 years, July has been XLK’s second strongest month, with positive closes 90% of the time and an average monthly return of 4%. The most profitable month is November, with an 89% positive close rate and a 5% average monthly return. August isn’t bad, but July is exceptionally strong and reflects its current overall performance.

XLI Seasonality Patterns: When Industrials Tend to Outperform

Switching over to a seasonality chart of XLI, we get a similar picture.

FIGURE 3. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLI. July is XLI’s strongest month for positive closes, and November is its strongest month for average seasonal returns.

This pattern is pretty exceptional: over the last 10 years, XLI has posted a historical 100% positive close rate in July, with an average return of 3.5%. The strongest returns, however, tend to occur in November, which shows an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 6.5%. The months in between are relatively unremarkable, making July and November stand out significantly. 

Technical Analysis of XLK and XLI

Will July be another up-month for XLK and XLI? Starting with XLK, let’s switch over to a six-month daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XLK. Tech’s upward trajectory is now in overbought territory, yet there’s little sign of slowing.

XLK is at an all-time high, and there’s no clear indication that it’s pulling back just yet. 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is suggesting that XLK has been occupying overbought territory since late June. However, bear in mind that an RSI reading at this level can sustain itself for an extended period. And if you look at the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, it suggests that the buying pressure trend is still rising with no signs of slowing down.

Actionable Tip: Remember, July is one of XLK’s historically strong seasonal months. 

• But if it does pull back soon, you might expect a bounce near $242.50, which is an area marked by a series of historical swing highs. 
• Notice how the ZigZag line highlights these key swing points. 
• Other areas of support sit around $235, its most recent swing low, and $225, the level of its most recent swing low.

Now let’s turn to the daily chart of XLI.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF XLI. Industrials are also surging, although buying pressure may be starting to decline.

Similar to the previous chart, XLI shows a move higher that places it well into all-time high territory. July is also an exceptionally strong month for XLI, but does it have enough fuel to return the seasonal 3.5% that it typically averages this month?

The RSI signals that XLI may be overbought, which, again, can remain there for some time, while the OBV suggests that buying pressure may be easing into a pullback. However, price continues its upward trajectory.

Actionable Tip: If XLI dips, the pullback may be shallow, potentially bouncing near $145, its most recent swing high. A more substantial support level lies around $141, where multiple swing lows have formed. If XLI drops below $141, you can expect further downside movement.

At the Close

While no strategy can guarantee success, combining seasonality insights with price action can help improve your market timing. Keep an eye on support levels as well as momentum and volume. Remember that the strongest months for XLK and XLI tend to be July (the current month) and November. You can add XLK and XLI to your ChartLists and keep an eye on them, especially in the months ahead. 

However, the big takeaway here is to consider using seasonality charts alongside the various tools in the Market Summary, whether you’re considering an individual stock, index (sector or industry), or other asset classes, like commodities and monetary metals. While price action can help you nail down specific market opportunities, seasonality charts can help contextualize current price action and anticipate potential future market scenarios.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

A good trade starts with a well-timed entry and a confident exit. But that’s easier said than done. 

In this video, Joe Rabil of Rabil Stock Research reveals his go-to two-timeframe setup he uses to gain an edge in his entry and exit timings and reduce his investment risks. 

Joe shows you how he spots the big trends on a higher timeframe chart and then drops to a shorter timeframe chart to pinpoint his entries and exits. Watch him dissect the S&P sectors, overall market, and specific symbols using the multiple timeframe approach. Follow along and come up with a systematic method that can help you gain more confidence in your investment decisions.  

The video premiered on July 2, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page. 

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Just when we thought tariff talk had gone quiet, it’s back on center stage. With the reciprocal tariff deadline landing this Wednesday, President Trump has mailed out notices that new duties will kick in on August 1. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan face a 25% levy, while a few others may see steeper rates.  

Wall Street didn’t take the news well. On Monday, the S&P 500 ($SPX) closed lower by 0.79%.  

Before the July 4 long weekend, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) notched fresh record highs, buoyed by solid jobs data. But like migratory birds, tariffs circled back on Monday and pushed stocks lower almost across the board.  

Monday’s performance can be encapsulated by the StockCharts MarketCarpets screenshot below. It was pretty much red except for a few lonely green squares. 

FIGURE 1. STOCK MARKET’S PERFORMANCE ON MONDAY, JULY 7. Besides a few lonely green squares, the screen lit up red. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Why Pullbacks Can Be Your Friend

Stock market pullbacks aren’t all bad. They give investors and traders a chance to go bargain hunting. A handy tool is the Market Movers panel in your StockCharts Dashboard. Check the “S&P 500 % Down” category to spot the 10 stocks in the index that had the largest % loss for the trading day. Then view the charts and see if any deserve a place in your ChartLists.

Two names that caught my eye: 

1. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
2. ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON) 

FIGURE 2. MARKET MOVERS PANEL FROM MONDAY, JULY 7. From this list, two stocks worth considering as “buy the dip” opportunities are TSLA and ON. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Sitting on the Fence

While it’s clear that politics helped knock TSLA down, the chart tells a fuller story. 

From the daily chart of TSLA below, it’s clear that the stock has seen some erratic movement recently. 

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF TSLA’S STOCK PRICE. TSLA’s stock price has danced above and below its 200-day simple moving average, and momentum is relatively weak. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Since April, TSLA’s stock price looked like it was recovering after it broke out above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). However, in early June it dipped below it and then went above it, and is now back below it. The June 23 high was below the end of May high. The relative strength index (RSI) and percentage price oscillator (PPO) indicate weakening momentum. The big question is where is TSLA going to find support? 

Watch three support levels on your chart. TSLA’s stock price has moved above the first support level. Look for momentum to pick up to confirm the upside move. If TSLA’s stock price doesn’t hold at this level and falls further towards the $270 or $220 levels, similar conditions would apply. However, a significant fall in price would weaken momentum significantly and would need stronger evidence to consider going long. 

ON Semiconductor (ON): Stalling at Resistance

ON has lagged its chip-making peers. Over the past year, ON Semiconductor has underperformed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). ON supplies chips to automakers and manufacturers, so its fortunes rise and fall with car demand. 

The daily chart of ON below shows that since early April the stock price has recovered with a series of higher highs and higher lows. It is now facing resistance of its 200-day SMA, a resistance area that coincides with the February high and the early January gap down. Momentum looks like it’s rising as indicated by the slight rise in RSI and a potential bullish crossover in the PPO. 

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF ON SEMICONDUCTOR. Since early April, ON has printed higher highs and higher lows. The stock price is now hovering around its 200-day SMA, and momentum seems to be gaining a little strength. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

I would look for ON to clear $58 on strong volume and improving momentum before opening a long position.  

Closing Position

• Add price alerts in StockCharts at each support level (for TSLA) or resistance level (for ON).
• When an alert triggers, re-evaluate the chart to confirm if momentum is strong enough for a price reversal and upside follow-through. 

A short-term investment could be a better choice for TSLA since its price performance is correlated to Elon Musk’s involvement with the company. 

ON could be a steadier, longer-term investment if the stock price breaks above resistance. 

No matter what, decide in advance where you’ll place your stops. Then stick to your plan because discipline always wins.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.