Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is back in the spotlight, wrestling with its four-year highs and turning heads on Wall Street. It debuted in 2021 as an IPO darling, capturing the imagination of young Gen Z traders before its dramatic fall as a meme stock fueled by crypto and an unhealthy dose of FOMO.

Now, with year-to-date gains outpacing the S&P 500 ($SPX), the former disruptor is looking to claim its space as a serious contender rather than a speculative fad.

Robinhood Stock’s Price Action: Breaking Out or Topping Out?

If you’ve been checking the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports, you’ve probably noticed the stock popping up on the Large Cap Top 10 list.

FIGURE 1. SCTR REPORT LARGE CAP TOP 10. Robinhood is second from the top.

If you’re eyeing HOOD, you’re likely asking two key questions: How is it performing relative to its Financials sector peers, and how strong is the sector itself in terms of market breadth? Just as important, you’ll want a longer-term view: How has the stock held up over time, both on its own and compared to the broader S&P 500?

Let’s tackle all those questions in one shot.

Financial Sector Breadth Shows Bullish Tailwinds for HOOD

The chart below, which tracks the Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index, offers a quick read on sector strength and market positioning.

NOTE: The BPI spans three years.

FIGURE 2. FINANCIAL SECTOR BPI. Market breadth and comparative price performance look exceedingly bullish.

From a breadth perspective, the Financial sector looks bullish, bordering on overbought, with over 82% of the stocks within the sector triggering Point & Figure Buy Signals, according to its Bullish Percent Index (BPI) reading. Meanwhile, HOOD is crushing it on a 3-year relative basis—outperforming its sector by 250% and the S&P 500 by nearly 300%.

This paints a bullish picture. But before jumping to conclusions, let’s take a step back and look at HOOD’s price history, going back to when it IPO’d in 2021.

From Meme Craze to Measured Recovery

Check out the weekly chart below.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF HOOD. It’s above the 10-week and 40-week SMAs, but it has quite a distance to go before testing its yearly high.

You don’t need annotations to spot where HOOD’s meme-stock frenzy peaked and where the crash began, fueled by a sharp drop in retail trading activity, crypto market volatility, and intensifying regulatory pressure.

After basing for two years, HOOD began picking up steam in 2024. Its improving technical strength is reflected in the sharp spike of its SCTR, breaking above the 90 line. Fundamentally, HOOD began to recover as it started raking in profits, expanding its product lineup, and reigniting its user growth.

It’s trading above its 10-week and 40-week simple moving average (SMA), which is equivalent to a 50-day and 200-day SMA, respectively. Still, it has quite a way to go before testing its high of $66.90.

Short-Term Trading Setup

If you’re looking to buy HOOD, you’ll need to zoom in to find favorable entry points. Let’s switch over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF HOOD. Support levels are clear and accumulation looks promising.

HOOD was in an intermediate-term downtrend starting in early February, where it peaked at $66.90, all the way down to the early part of April, where it bottomed sharply at around $29. HOOD quickly recovered, breaking above $50 (a local swing high) to $54, where it is now (at the time of writing).

Can HOOD Hold Its Gains or Is Consolidation Coming?

The Stochastic Oscillator warns that HOOD may be overbought and due for a pullback. Here are a couple of scenarios to consider, and note that the Ichimoku Cloud visually provides a wider range of potential support:

• Watch for support at $46 or $39, both recent swing lows.
• If it stalls between those levels, it could signal a failed breakout and continued consolidation until a new catalyst emerges.
• If it drops below $39, the next key level is at $29, but be a little cautious at that point, as such a deep retracement may indicate weakening momentum, sentiment, and fundamental weakness.

On the bullish side of things, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL), currently well above the price, is indicating strong accumulation, suggesting that demand is outpacing supply—which, if it continues, can drive prices higher.

At the Close

Robinhood’s stock price is showing real signs of strength, not just on a chart, but in its fundamentals. With relative performance beating its sector and the S&P 500, and strong accumulation under the surface, HOOD’s comeback narrative is gaining technical validation. But with overbought signals flashing and key support levels in play, the next move may depend on whether bulls defend the breakout, or if the stock consolidates further while waiting for its next catalyst.

In either case, keep a close eye on volume, momentum shifts, and those support zones. HOOD may still have more room to run, but timing your entry could make all the difference.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Joe shares how to trade MACD signals using multiple timeframes, and how to spot stock market pullback setups that can help to pinpoint a great entry off a low. He then reviews sector performance to identify market leadership, covers key chart patterns, and discusses a looming bearish signal on QQQ and IWM. The video wraps with technical analysis on popular viewer-submitted stock symbols, including REAL, PSTG, and more.

The video premiered on May 7, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The stock market’s action on Wednesday was a bit like trying to pick a dinner spot with friends—lots of back and forth, but no real direction.

The market started out higher and went up and down without much of a directional bias until the Fed made its expected interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Stock prices dipped lower, but right before the close, another headline moving event surfaced: President Trump announced the rollback of some chip-related restrictions. This news gave the market a boost into the close.

Here’s how the broader indexes closed:

• The Dow Industrials ($INDU) finished up 0.70%.
• The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 0.43%.
• The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) added 0.27%.

Tech Leads, but Alphabet Takes a Hit

In terms of sector performance, Technology came out on top, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Health Care. On the flip side, Real Estate, Communication Services, and Materials were the laggards.

The main reason behind the stumble in Communication Services was Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), which dropped by a whopping 7.26%. Why the selloff? An Alphabet exec testified that Google was losing search traffic to AI tools.

The StockCharts’ S&P 500 MarketCarpet (below) reflects Wednesday’s price action.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPETS FOR MAY 7, 2025. It was mostly green with some pockets of red.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Overall, Wednesday’s performance is leaning more positive than negative, but is it enough to break through critical resistance levels?

Resistance Levels in the S&P 500

To get a clearer picture, we need to check out the daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX).

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 FACING A LOT OF HEADWINDS. THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a resistance level the index is struggling to break above.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 is sandwiched between its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the February high to April low show that the 61.8% retracement level is proving to be a stubborn ceiling. Add to that the downward-sloping 50-day SMA, and the market may have a tough time moving higher. To leave the downtrend in the rearview mirror, the S&P 500 would have to break above its 200-day SMA with the necessary follow-through to keep it above that level. So far, the price action suggests that the S&P 500 will face headwinds to get to that stage.

News Moves Markets, Like the Chip Surprise Today

Remember, the market’s price action is like riding a rollercoaster powered by headlines. This can sometimes send technical analysis into a disarray.

Take, for example, today’s news about lifting the chip restrictions, which sent semiconductor stocks higher. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 2.05% (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Will the semiconductor ETF be able to break out above its May 2 high?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Like the chart of the S&P 500, SMH needs to work harder at breaking its downtrend. The one ray of hope is that Wednesday’s move reached the May 2 high. The downside: it wasn’t able to break above it. This shows investors are cautious about semiconductors and the overall equity market.

Volatility Says It All

The caution among investors can be seen clearly in the chart of the S&P 500 vs the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX).

FIGURE 4. VIX VS. S&P 500. Even though the VIX pulled back from its April peak, it’s still above average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What’s interesting is that while the VIX fell when the S&P 500 rose from mid-April, the VIX hasn’t dropped to its average level of 19. It’s still trading above it, which is another point that increases the probability of further downside in equities.

The Bottom Line

There is a lot going on: geopolitical tensions, trade deal updates, policy shifts. Any of these can jolt the market in either direction.

It was encouraging to see tech stocks and semiconductors bounce on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean we’re headed back to the days of growth stock leadership. If you’re an investor, especially one managing retirement money or nearing retirement, the best approach is to be patient. We’re not out of the woods yet.

As always, stay alert and stick with your investment plan.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Riches are found in reactions—your reactions to changes in the markets. By this, I mean that if you spot a change in money flowing from one asset class to another, one sector to another, one industry to another, before the masses notice, you will be rewarded handsomely. My experience has been that your profits will accumulate dramatically and consistently.

A fine example of this principle in the corporate arena is the global footwear and accessories retailer, Aldo. The company has 1,600 stores in 80 countries and is immensely profitable. Their secret sauce: quick reactions to market trends. When they identify a change in fashion trends, they’re 50 percent quicker than their competition in designing, producing and delivering the hottest styles. Yes, fifty percent faster, and that’s gold to their bottom line.

This can be your secret sauce to investment profits as well. Your personal portfolio of ChartLists is the equivalent of Aldo’s design department, production department, and delivery department all bundled together. It facilitates quick reactions to current observable stock market opportunities.

In simplistic terms, your personal collection of ChartLists is like giving a runner a bicycle or giving a Jeep driver a Porsche. ROI (return on investment of your time and efforts) becomes supercharged. Your ChartLists allow you to become a “force of consistency.” They will also help you embrace one of Charlie Munger’s key investment tenets, “Try to be consistently not stupid.”

To achieve this end, I humbly suggest that you could best start with the Stock Market Mastery ChartPack.

Assembling your portfolio of ChartLists is analogous to building your custom dream house. There are sensational books of checklists that systematically ask you a comprehensive series of questions and bring up features you should consider. The end result should be a custom home you love, that fits you perfectly, and that accommodates your unique lifestyle. Think of the Stock Market Mastery ChartPack, then, as an extensive checklist—a buffet of pre-populated and organized ChartLists, from which you build your own custom collection of ChartLists that fits your investing methodology perfectly and facilitates your personal Investor Self. These 80 ChartLists are carefully structured, all pre-populated with expertly designed charts and a carefully-crafted organization to maximize your precious time and insights. Indeed, nearly all the informational breadcrumbs the market has to offer will be made clear to you and offer you a profitable trail to follow. Your reflexes and reactions just got supercharged. It is that easy.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

Gatis Roze, MBA, CMT

StockMarketMastery.com

• Author, “Tensile Trading: The 10 Essential Stages of Stock Market Mastery” (Wiley, 2016)
• Developer of the “Stock Market Mastery” ChartPack for StockCharts members
• Presenter of the best-selling “Tensile Trading” DVD seminar
• Presenter of the “How to Master Your Asset Allocation Profile DVD” seminar

In this video, Dave reveals four key charts he’s watching to determine whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will be able to power through their 200-day moving averages en route to higher highs. Using the recently updated StockCharts Market Summary page, he covers moving average breadth measures, his proprietary Market Trend Model, offense vs. defense ratios, and the Bullish Percent Indexes.

This video originally premiered on May 5, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Communication Services Drops to #5

The composition of the top five sectors remains largely stable this week, with only slight adjustments in positioning. Consumer staples continue to lead the pack, followed by utilities, financials, real estate (moving up one spot), and communication services (dropping to fifth). This defensive lineup persists despite a rallying market, presenting an interesting dilemma for sector rotation strategies.

1. (1) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
3. (3) Financials – (XLF)
4. (5) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
5. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
6. (6) Healthcare – (XLV)
7. (7) Industrials – (XLI)
8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
9. (11) Technology – (XLK)*
10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
11. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a picture of potential change on the horizon.

While staples, utilities, real estate, and financials maintain their positions in the leading quadrant, they show signs of losing relative momentum over the past few weeks.

Financials, particularly, are teetering on the edge of rolling into the weakening quadrant.

Communication services have already shifted, now firmly in the weakening quadrant and traveling on a negative RRG heading. This movement explains its drop to the fifth position in our sector rankings.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we see a slightly different picture for our top sectors.

Staples, utilities, real estate, and financials are all positioned in the weakening quadrant, traveling on negative RRG headings.

This short-term view indicates that we must closely monitor these sectors to determine if they can regain momentum before potentially dropping out of the top five.

Interestingly, communication services is showing signs of life on the daily chart. Despite falling to the fifth position overall, its tail is now in the improving quadrant and moving toward leading.

The caveat? It’s a very short tail, close to the benchmark—essentially moving in line with the market. This makes communication services the sector most at risk of losing its top-five status in the near term.

Consumer Staples

Consumer staples is bumping up against overhead resistance between $82.50 and $83.

This hesitation in upward price movement is causing weakness in the RS line, which has started to dip.

Consequently, the RS momentum line is rolling over. However, the high RS ratio—indicating a strong relative trend—is keeping staples at the top of our list for now.

Utilities

Utilities has been flirting with a breakout since the start of 2025, pushing against overhead resistance around $80 about four times already.

When it breaks, we’ll likely see an acceleration towards the all-time high just above $82.50.

Like staples, the inability to break resistance is causing a stall in the RS line and a rollover in relative momentum.

Financials

After a strong rally off the $42 support level, previously resistance (the old technical adage holds true), financials is now facing a challenge.

The rally is approaching the former rising support level that marked the uptrend channel. This could cause some hesitation in both price and relative strength.

The RS line remains within its rising channel, but momentum has waned, causing the green RS momentum line to roll over.

Real-Estate

Real estate moved up one position to fourth and is still emerging from a long relative downtrend that began in April 2022.

The RS ratio line has picked up the relative strength rally that started in early 2025 but is now stalling.

This has resulted in the green RS momentum line rolling over. On the price chart, real estate is mid-range with room to move higher.

Communication Services

Communication services have dropped to the fifth position, but the price chart has an interesting development.

Last week, the price broke back above the old neckline of a small head-and-shoulders pattern. The fact that we’re now rallying above this neckline could indicate a failed head-and-shoulders pattern—usually a very strong bullish sign.

However, recent weakness in relative strength has pushed the sector deeper into the weakening quadrant on the RRG.

This sector must pick up rapidly in the coming weeks to maintain its position in the top five.

Portfolio Performance

The defensive positioning of our top five sectors is leading to underperformance as the broader market rallies.

Currently, we remain at approximately a 3% underperformance compared to SPY just like last week.

However, from the perspective of sector rotation, we must still consider this rally in the S&P 500 to be temporary.

The underlying message continues to emphasize defense.

It’s important to remember that there is always a lagging element in RRGs and this strategy.

If the market has truly turned, we will see that shift reflected in our sectors, and at some point, we will start to make up the difference.

These performance gaps can change very rapidly in favor of the RRG portfolio when the market comes under pressure and our defensive sectors start to lead again.

#StayAlert and have a great week — Julius

The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets typically end with a bottoming process marked by specific stages. These include capitulation, a short-term reversal-thrust, a follow-through thrust and long-term regime change. The first two stages mark downside excess and the initial turn around, while the latter two signal strong follow through. Today’s report will look at the first two phases, and preview the last two.

Phase 1: Capitulation

The capitulation phase of a bear market occurs when traders throw in the towel as downside momentum and selling pressure accelerate. Usually, the capitulation phase occurs after an extended decline, and this phase is the first step to a bottom. The chart below shows SPY with Bollinger Bands (200,3), %B (200,3) and S&P 500 Percent Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R). Signs of capitulation emerge when %B is below 0 and/or fewer than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. The blue dashed lines show capitulation in June 2022, September 2022 and early April 2025. Note that we initially covered this capitulation phase in a report on April 8th.

Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals (ZBT)

Phase 2 is marked by a sharp-reversal from oversold extremes and an upside thrust. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is perhaps the most famous thrust indicator these days. We covered the ZBT extensively over the last few weeks and introduced a strategy using this indicator. The chart below shows the S&P 1500 ZBT indicator in the lower window (10-day EMA of S&P 1500 AD%). A thrust signal triggered on April 24th and stocks followed through with further gains.  

Two Down and Two to Go

The capitulation phase showed excessive selling pressure and the thrust phase marked a short-term reversal. These are bullish events, but the market cup is not yet half full. SPY remains below its 200-day SMA and the late March high (see chart above). Medium-term thrust indicators have yet to trigger and long-term breadth remains bearish. The 14% surge over the last 17 days is impressive, but keep in mind that SPY surged 10% in nine days in March 2022, which was a bear market bounce.

TrendInvestorPro produced a report this week covering the four phases – and what to watch going forward. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

• Phase 1: Capitulation
• Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals
• Phase 3: Medium-term Thrust Signals
• Capitulation and Thrust Indexes
• Phase 4: Long-term Indicators turn Bullish
• Short-term Improvements, but Longer Term 

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In the truncated week due to one trading holiday, the markets extended their gains and closed the week on a positive note. While remaining largely within a defined range, the Nifty continued consolidating above its 200-DMA while not adopting any sustainable directional bias. While the Index continued defending its key support levels, it oscillated in the range of 535.10 points. Volatility continued moving higher; the India Vix surged by 6.41% to 18.26 on a weekly basis. While staying positive, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 307.35 points (+1.28%).

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has kept its underlying bias intact; it is currently consolidating above the 200-DMA positioned at 24050. The 50-week MA is placed at 23962. This makes the 24950-24050 a strong 200-point support zone for the Nifty for the coming weeks and the foreseeable short term. So long as the Index keeps it above this 200-point support zone, it will just consolidate and not show any major drawdowns. However, any violation of 24900 will increase the possibility of some corrective retracement. Watching Nifty’s behavior vis-à-vis the zone of 23950-24050 would be crucial over the coming days.

The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain ingrained in the market behavior; the rise in Vix shows increased hedging activity by the market participants. Monday is likely to see a stable start to the day; the levels of 24550 and 24780 are likely to act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 24050 and 23900. The trading range is expected to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.92. While the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period high, it remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and trades above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that on the daily chart, the Nifty crossed above the 200-DMA a few days ago; now, it is consolidating just above this important level. It has penetrated the 50-week MA placed at 23962, and this level is now expected to act as support in the event of any corrective retracement. Importantly, the Nifty has resisted the rising trendline pattern resistance near 24600. This trendline begins at 21130 levels and joins the subsequent rising bottoms.

The coming week will require a more cautious approach as the markets not only deal with key resistance levels but also with geopolitical tensions that remain embedded in the backdrop. The investors will need to move away from the stocks that have risen over the past weeks and move to those sectors and stocks that are readying for a fresh move. While focusing more on low-beta stocks, the leverage, too, needs to be curtailed. The Index has risen over 2500 points over the past three weeks, and if it consolidates a bit, it should not surprise the market participants. A highly cautious and stock-specific approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty FMCG index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The PSU Bank, Infrastructure, and Consumption Index are also inside the leading quadrant. The Metal, Commodities, Financial Services, and Nifty Bank Index are also inside this quadrant, but they are giving up on their relative momentum. However, these groups may continue to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

While the Nifty IT index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the Midcap 100, Auto, Realty, and Pharma Indices are seen improving their relative momentum while being inside the lagging quadrant.

The Nifty Media, PSE, and Energy Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to better their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae