Join Tom as he covers key inflation data, earnings season highlights, and sector rotation trends. He breaks down recent price action in major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with a close look at the 20-day moving average as a support gauge. Tom spotlights standout industry groups such as gambling, semiconductors, software, and aerospace, and shares charts of top-performing stocks like Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and PNC. Tom highlights under-performing areas like insurance brokers and home improvement, then reviews several strong earnings reactions, including Monarch Casino’s 15% after-hours gain.

This video was published on July 17, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link. 

There is no denying that the broad markets remain in a resilient uptrend off the April 2025 low.  But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from many years of analyzing charts, it’s to remain vigilant during bullish phases.  Even though I’ll assume the uptrend is still intact, that doesn’t mean I can stop looking for signs of potential weakness!

With that in mind, here are three bearish candle patterns that often pop up during bullish market phases.  By looking for these patterns in the stocks and ETFs that you own, you can hopefully get ahead of any corrective moves and take profits before it’s too late!

The Shooting Star Pattern

If you see a long upper shadow, little to no lower shadow, and the open and close are close together near the bottom of the day’s range, then you have identified a shooting star candle pattern.  If you’re familiar with the hammer candle pattern, then you can think of this as a hammer candle but basically everything is upside down!

The chart of AT&T (T) has featured a number of shooting star candles so far in 2025.  Just before the selloff in early April, there was a clear shooting star candle after the March rally.  Then during the rally off the April low, a shooting star pattern in early May suggested that the uptrend phase was nearing an exhaustion point.

The Bearish Engulfing Pattern

One of the most recognizable patterns in the candlestick library, the bearish engulfing pattern represents a short-term rotation from accumulation to distribution.  Basically, a large up candle is followed by a large down candle, and the second day’s “real body” (the open-to-close range) engulfs the range of the first day’s real body.  

Look at the strength in the uptrend for Paramount Global (PARA) going into early June.  Then just before the 4th of July weekend, a bearish engulfing pattern suggests a change of character as the bears take control.  It’s worth noting that these candle patterns are not long-term signals, but rather indicate short-term dynamics.  So a bearish engulfing pattern suggests weakness for the next one to three bars.

The Evening Star Pattern

If you took the bearish engulfing pattern, and then added another small candle in the middle of those two days, then you’d have an evening star pattern.  Now most candlestick textbooks will tell you that the “star” day in the middle should include a gap, so there’s no overlap between that day’s range and the other two candles.  In practice, I’ve found most people ignore this detail and rather look for patterns with enough similarities to this basic structure.

Going back to the AT&T chart we used earlier, we can see an evening star pattern at the end of June.  A big day is followed soon after by a big down day, with a small candle in the middle.  This is a great example of where additional weakness led the price below the 50-day moving average, serving to confirm the bearish outlook as represented by the evening star pattern.

It’s so easy to become complacent during an extended bull market rally.  Investors that regularly scan for bearish candle patterns have an edge, as they can anticipate potential turning points before the uptrend changes in dramatic fashion to a new downtrend phase!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Join Grayson as he shares how to streamline your analysis using custom ChartStyles. He demonstrates how to create one-click ChartStyles tailored to your favorite indicators, use style buttons to quickly switch between clean, focused views, and build a chart-leveling system that reduces noise and helps you stay locked in on what matters most.

This video originally premiered on July 16, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

This week, Joe analyzes all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks in a rapid-fire format, offering key technical takeaways and highlighting potential setups in the process. Using his multi-timeframe momentum and trend approach, Joe shows how institutional investors assess relative strength, chart structure, ADX signals, and support zones. From Boeing’s triple bottom to Nvidia’s powerful trend, not to mention Microsoft’s key pullback level, this session is packed with insights for traders looking to stay in sync with the market’s leaders and laggards.

Joe has been working with institutional portfolio managers for the past 35 years, and this video shows the type of reads he gives to them during their phone calls.

The video premiered on July 16, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page. 

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Relatively healthy earnings reports from the big banks and a June inflation report that came in line with analyst expectations didn’t give the stock market much of a lift, as the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) both ended the day lower. The only major index to shine was the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), which closed at a record high.

Technology stocks were the stars of the show. It wasn’t a blowout rally, but the sector still managed to finish in the green. Why? There were a couple of key developments that gave tech a nice boost.

First, semiconductors got some breathing room. Restrictions on chip sales to China were relaxed, and that gave big names like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) a reason to rally. 

Second, there’s a push from the government to invest in AI and energy initiatives in Pennsylvania. One of the biggest winners was Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), which jumped 6.9% — the biggest percentage gain in the S&P 500. You can see from the StockCharts MarketCarpet for the S&P 500 stocks that, besides the top-weighted stocks in the index, it was mostly a sea of red.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPET FOR TUESDAY, JULY 15. Technology was the clear leader, with the largest cap-weighted stocks leading the sector higher.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Semiconductors Show Strength

If you’ve been watching semiconductors, you may have noticed that the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) has been on a roll. Since April, the ETF has stayed above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). The relative performance of XSD against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been improving, and its relative strength index (RSI) is at around 62, an indication that momentum is at healthy levels (see chart below). It’s important to note that since May, the RSI has remained above 50, which is supportive of XSD’s upside movement.

Note: StockCharts members can access this chart from the Market Summary page or the Market Summary ChartPack (under US Industries > Bellwether Industries).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XSD. Since April, XSD has been trending higher and is now trading above its 21-day EMA.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

How to Track Semiconductor Stocks

If the environment for semiconductors remains strong, there could be more upside for stocks in that space. A simple way to keep tabs on the stocks using StockCharts tools is to create a ChartList of semiconductor stocks you’re interested in owning.

• Begin by heading to the US Sectors panel in the Market Summary page or the Sector Summary page on your Dashboard.
• Click Sector Drill-Down > Technology Sector Fund > Semiconductors.
• You’ll see the list of semiconductor stocks that make up the industry group.

From there, I prefer to sort the data by the Universe (U) column, starting with the large caps and then the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score to find large-cap technically strong stocks. You can then view the charts on the list. If you see a chart that appears to have a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, you can save it to your Semiconductor ChartList.

FIGURE 3. SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS TO REVIEW. The sector drill-down will uncover stocks in leading sectors or industry groups. Scroll down the list to identify charts that meet your investment or trading criteria. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As you review the charts in your ChartList, you can identify potential support and resistance levels and set alerts to notify you when prices reach your key levels. It’s a great way to stay proactive.

The Bottom Line

This type of top-down analysis helps you stay one step ahead of the market. Start with the broad market, then narrow down to sectors, then industry groups, and then individual stocks. By taking a proactive approach to managing your investments, you’re always preparing for the stock market’s next move.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

• The breakout level near $112k.
• A strong historical support level at around $110k.
• Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Dave as he reviews three common candle patterns traders can use to identify potential turning points. From bullish engulfing patterns to evening star patterns, Dave gives insights on how to leverage these powerful candle signals to anticipate market shifts. He also shows combining candle patterns with conventional technical analysis tools can help improve success rates.

This video originally premiered on July 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

I remain very bullish and U.S. stocks have run hard to the upside off the April low with growth stocks leading the way. I expect growth stocks to remain strong throughout the summer months, as they historically do, but we need to recognize that they’ve already seen tremendous upside. Could technology (XLK) names, in particular, use a period of consolidation? Well, if we look at a 5-year weekly chart, the XLK really isn’t that overbought just yet:

The weekly PPO has crossed its centerline and is gaining bullish momentum. The recent price breakout suggests to me that we likely have further to run. And if you look at the weekly RSI, you’ll note that we’ve seen the weekly RSI move well into the 70s and even close to 80 before witnessing a market top or pause. Outside a bit of profit taking, I really don’t see the likelihood of a big selloff here. Keep in mind that the XLK represents 31% of the S&P 500. If the XLK doesn’t slow down, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see any type of meaningful decline in the S&P 500 either.

Growth vs. Value

Growth stocks have historically performed well over the summer months. One way to visualize this is to compare large-cap growth (IWF) to large-cap value (IWD) using a seasonality chart. Check this out:

The average monthly outperformance since 2013 is reflected at the bottom of each month’s column. If you add those numbers for May through August, you get +5.4%. If you add those numbers for the other 8 months combined, you get +0.6%. Clearly, large-cap growth has the tendency to outperform value from May through August. We’re in the growth “sweet spot” right now.

So Should We Lower Our Market Expectations?

I say absolutely not. Yes, we’ve run substantially higher off that April low, but I see more left in the tank. Will we see profit taking from time to time and could we see a period of consolidation? Sure. But I still believe that remaining on the sidelines is a big mistake as plenty of market upside remains. In fact, I see another somewhat forgotten asset class that’s poised to scorch 50% higher or more, possibly over the next 6 months. I’m investing in this area now, as I believe it’s in the early stages of a significant rally, and believe it would be prudent for you to take a look as well. For more information, simply CLICK HERE, provide your name and email address, and I’ll send you a video that explains exactly why I’m favoring this group right now!

Happy trading!

Tom

Is the market flashing early signs of a shift?

In this week’s video, Mary Ellen McGonagle breaks down the subtle but telling moves happening under the surface. From strength in semiconductors, home builders, and energy to surging momentum in Bitcoin and silver, Mary Ellen highlights the sectors gaining traction and the technical setups traders should have on their radar.

She also spots stocks breaking above key moving averages, potential reversal patterns, and discusses actionable insights heading into earnings season.

If you’re looking for timely trade ideas and a roadmap to where money is flowing next, don’t miss this breakdown.

This video premiered on July 11, 2025.

You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

As we navigate the evolving stock market landscape, understanding key sectors and their trends is important, especially during earnings season. This week, the spotlight shines on the Financial sector, with several of the largest banks reporting. Five of the top 10 holdings within the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) are on deck: J.P. Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS). 

This week we will focus on the Financial sector via XLF and zoom in on one of its top components, Goldman Sachs.

The Financial Sector: A Technical Look at XLF

XLF has been outperforming the S&P 500 ($SPX), experiencing new all-time highs, and has been a leading sector in the most recent market rebound.

Now that all banks that were susceptible to the Fed’s stress test have passed with flying colors, questions loom about whether less stringent regulations will lead to more growth. The sector has not experienced much M&A activity, and the IPO market has yet to come back to a healthy level of activity. However, there is hope that a banking renaissance is on the horizon, and maybe this quarter will give a rosier outlook than more recent forecasts.

Technically, XLF looks promising. Shares broke out to new all-time highs ahead of earnings and are now set up with good risk/reward potential for investors. 

The pattern from which it broke out is a bit of a wonky head-and-shoulders pattern. I’d call this a stretch as it isn’t picture perfect, but the price image presented is close enough to set parameters to trade. 

The breakout on a gap to new highs is extremely bullish, and that gap level could be used as a stop-loss to the downside, worst case should be the rising 50-day moving average. Buyers should come back into the sector there on a dip.

Goldman Sachs (GS): A Bellwether

Goldman Sachs, the largest component in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, reports results on Wednesday morning just days after hitting all-time highs. Investors will be looking for any commentary focused on tariffs and margins. 

Has there been any impact on their results, or have concerns about inflation been overblown? Any earnings pressure on their bottom line could cause ripple effects throughout other sectors like industrials, materials, and technology. 

Shares declined 33% then rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that’s where opportunity may lie. Wouldn’t chase it just yet. I would own for the long term, but price action could be very interesting when they report next week. 

One bold prediction — look for a possible stock split announcement. Since their debut in 1999, shares have never split. Seeing the recent price surge and its size in the Dow, that option should be on the table. 

Technically, shares have been on a tremendous run as they’ve rallied 65% from their April 7 lows. Shares may need a breather as they are overbought, but that may be where the opportunity lies when they report next week. 

The stock has rallied with a series of gaps along the way. Those gaps tell a story, and it’s worth watching the most recent gap from $690 to $700. Each jump higher has not experienced a full retracement — a gap fill, if you will.

The gaps higher have been very bullish. The first large gap — a breakaway gap — started the main part of this rally. We have seen a series of smaller gaps that helped extend the rally. Now, we may be tiring. Watch the $690 level to see if that gap can hold. If it can’t, then there may be more selling pressure over the near term. 

A healthy pullback given the strong bull run is likely, but buyable. A break below $690 could see a swift move lower to the $665 level. If things turn negative, then the rising 50-day moving average, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement level just below $620 would be an ideal entry point from a risk/reward perspective. 

The good news is that any weakness in the stock looks like it should be met with great opportunities to enter the name. The long-term trend is up, and the momentum is there not only in the stock but within the sector. The long-term trader shouldn’t fret earnings; the swing trader may get an opportunity to buy a dip from an overbought condition. The bad news would be that the stock gaps higher again and continues its upward trajectory. 

Beyond Financials: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

While financials take center stage, we want to touch upon another significant company reporting this week: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

JNJ shares have remained relatively flat for the better part of five years. Much of the earnings focus will be on plans to navigate patent expirations. 

Merck acquired Verona last week. The patent cliff will continue to be a hot topic for the entire pharma industry. As for JNJ, it’s confronting the expiration of exclusivity on Stelara, its $10B+ immunology blockbuster drug. The exclusivity expires first in Europe this year and then in the U.S. in 2026.

As for reaction to earnings, don’t expect too much activity. The average move post-results has been +/- 2.05%. Shares have traded lower after five of the last seven times. Shares of the Dow stock are up 8% year-to-date and -9% off their highs.

Technically, there isn’t much to see here. We backed it out to look at price in a five-year weekly range to illustrate that point.

Shares have been in a wide range between roughly $138 to $168 over this lengthy span. Yes, I yawned when I typed this out — it’s that boring. We don’t expect much to change, but there are small setups for a shorter-term swing trader.

The stock, while breaking above the midpoint of this longer-term range, is forming a bullish ascending triangle and has, albeit tight, risk/reward parameters for those looking to trade. 

To the downside, look for the continued near-term uptrend to hold and find support right at the 200-day moving average just below $153. A good entry point in which one could manage risk. 

To the upside, a break above $158 could take shares to their recent highs and slowly and steadily towards the $168 level. The set-up is far from ideal when looking at the longer-term action, but near term, there could be a quick play and maybe, just maybe, shares can finally escape the longer-term neutral range.