Stocks keep notching record highs. If you’re like most investors, you’re probably wondering, “Should I really chase these prices or sit tight and wait for a pullback?”

Instead of overthinking and ending up in Analysis-Paralysis land, however, it may be worth exploring other avenues — and maybe even something you’ve never thought of.

Enter bearish counter-trend options strategies. Yup, it sounds crazy, especially when the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed at fresh highs. But here’s the reality: a well-planned put strategy has the potential to generate some revenue while you wait for the market to slow down or pull back. I got the idea after watching a recent video that dives into these strategies (worth watching if you haven’t).

Finding an Optimal Options Strategy

If you click the OptionsPlay Strategy Center tab on your StockCharts Dashboard (OptionsPlay Add-On for StockCharts required), choose the Bearish Counter Trend or Bullish Counter Trend categories (depending on whether the market is bullish or bearish), and then select the Bear Put Spread strategy, you’ll see all the stocks that meet the criteria. Since stocks are in a bullish trajectory, I decided to look at stocks in the Bearish Counter Trend list. I also chose the 45-day timeframe, a balanced risk profile, and $2,500 max risk. I sorted the list based on IV rank. Walt Disney Co. (DIS) made it to the top of the list.

A couple of points to consider:

• A risk/reward ratio of 0.6 to 1
• Disney’s earnings date of August 6, which falls before the spread expires.

However, looking through the other charts on the list, DIS appeared to be the most likely to pull back in the near term.

Here’s where the beauty of options comes into play. They’re extremely flexible, and you can tweak the strategies to give you a risk/reward that’s more desirable.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Disney’s stock chart and consider how low the stock could go.

Disney’s Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart of DIS, the stock price has pulled back a bit, and momentum, although relatively high as indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) and percentage price oscillator (PPO), is showing signs of slowing down. If momentum continues to weaken, DIS could move lower and fall to around the $120 level (dashed blue horizontal line).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF DISNEY STOCK. DIS has been rising after its early May gap up. It’s now pulling back, and Disney’s stock price closed today at $122.98.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Put Spread Can Bring a Little Magic

If you click the Options tab below the chart, you’ll see three strategies you could apply. Since I have a bearish bias, I clicked the Bearish button. The three optimized strategies that came up:

•  Sell 100 shares of DIS.
• Buy one DIS put.
• Buy a put vertical. The put vertical has the highest OptionsPlay score and is the one that aligns with the bearish counter-trend strategy.

Looking at the risk curve for the put spread — buying 1 Aug 15 125 put and selling 1 Aug 15 110 put (see below) — you’re risking $471 for a potential reward of $1029. This is slightly better than a 0.6 to 1 risk/reward ratio. The breakeven level is $120.29, which aligns with the support level on the price chart. At least there’s a high probability of breaking even, although you want to do better than that. DIS could fall below the $120 level. I would consider placing this trade.

FIGURE 2: RISK CURVES FOR THREE OPTIMAL STRATEGIES FOR TRADING DIS STOCK. The put vertical spread has the best score, defined-risk, and an attractive payoff.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Final Thoughts

Options are dynamic, and if you decide to put on the trade, monitor your open positions regularly. With options, it’s not just about price. Time decay and volatility can change the premiums. If these variables change significantly, consider adjusting your trade.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Roblox Corporation (RBLX), the company behind the immersive online gaming universe, has been on a strong run since April. This isn’t the first time the stock demonstrated sustained technical strength: RBLX has maintained a StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) above 90, aside from a few dips, since last November.

Currently, RBLX is showing up on a few scans that may signal an opportunity for those who are bullish on the stock. It currently ranks among the SCTR Report Top 10, but also appeared on a few cautionary scans, including the Parabolic SAR Sell Signals and Overbought with a Declining RSI scans (both of which are available in the StockCharts Sample Scan Library).

So here’s the question: Is RBLX a strong stock that’s about to undergo a buyable dip?

Weekly Chart: Key Breakout and Resistance Levels

Before we explore that question, let’s take a look at a weekly chart for a broader perspective.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF RBLX. The stock is barely above halfway between its three-year lows and highs. If it delivers the growth investors expect, you could see another leg higher once the pullback completes.

The weekly chart shows RBLX trading in a broad range from late 2022 to late 2024, repeatedly failing to clear resistance near $47–$48. When it finally broke out in November, the stock’s technical strength was reflected in its SCTR score, which held a sustained position above the 90 line save a few declines.

Breaking above the $47–$48 resistance was a key move, as that level turned into support in December and again in April, where RBLX established a base ahead of its current rally. The subsequent move up was sharp, arguably even parabolic, peaking at $106.17 before pulling back.

If you look closely, you’ll see a swing high at around the $125 level (December 2022). This marks a technical level that happens to align with several Wall Street price targets. The blue line at $140 marks RBLX’s all-time high. Both levels can serve as potential price targets and are also likely to act as resistance.

RBLX is a technically strong stock that is fundamentally robust, despite remaining unprofitable on a GAAP basis. With strong user engagement, accelerating revenue growth, and plenty of free cash flow, it’s a favorable growth stock. However, it’s overbought. So, for those looking to get in, what are the key levels to watch out for?

Daily Chart: Fixed and Dynamic Support Levels to Watch

Let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF RBLX. Although the stock is currently overbought, there are plenty of support levels below. If you’re bullish on the stock, now’s the time to add RBLX to your ChartLists and set price alerts.

The strength of RBLX’s current surge is highlighted by the Bollinger Bands. The stock has been “walking the band” over the past two months. Now that it has pulled back, it appears to be bouncing off the middle band, suggesting that investors are still accumulating the stock.

As far as the pullback is concerned, the Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows that RBLX entered overbought territory in May and began declining in late June, revealing a divergence between MFI and price—an early signal that RBLX was about to pull back. That pullback materialized on Tuesday. Whether it continues in the coming sessions is something we’ll have to see. In contrast, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure of volume-based momentum, suggests that buying pressure is still relatively strong.

Whether RBLX continues advancing or pulls back in the near term, keep an eye on the Bollinger Bands for potential support. You may also encounter a bounce and favorable entry point at $92.50, a “local” swing low.

Another stronger support level sits near $75, aligning with the February and April swing highs. HOWEVER, that’s a huge drop; if the price falls toward this level, you’d have to reevaluate the stock’s momentum, volume, market sentiment, and the broader economic factors that may be driving such a decline.

When to Consider Entering RBLX

If you’re bullish on the stock, RBLX is something you’ll want to monitor in the days ahead. Add it to your ChartLists and observe how it acts within the context of the Bollinger Bands. If the stock declines further, you may want to set a price alert at $92.50 to see how price responds to this recent swing low. As mentioned above, further declines would warrant a re-evaluation, so keep a close eye on the price action.

Is Roblox Stock Still a Buy?

RBLX’s surge reflects growing optimism about the company’s future growth prospects. While it isn’t profitable yet by GAAP standards, its strong performance relative to analyst expectations and its strong free cash flow have made it something of a Wall Street darling. For now, the technicals are the proof in the pudding. If it is what growth investors seek, the price action should provide evidence before the fundamentals validate it in the coming earnings quarters.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Grayson for a solo show as he reveals his top 10 stock charts to watch this month. From breakout strategies to moving average setups, he walks through technical analysis techniques using relative strength, momentum, and trend-following indicators. As a viewer, you’ll also gain insight into key market trends and chart patterns that could directly impact your trading strategy. Whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, this breakdown will help you stay one step ahead.

This video originally premiered on July 1, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2025 Q1, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be, based upon earnings estimates through 2026 Q1.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through March 2026. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of June 30, 2025. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2026 Q1.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. High valuation applies negative pressure on the market, but other more positive factors can keep the market in overvalued territory.

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Below is the EB Weekly Market Report that I sent out earlier to our EarningsBeats.com members. This will give you an idea of the depth of our weekly report, which is a very small piece of our regular service offerings. We called both the stock market top in February and stock market bottom in April, and encouraged EB members to lower risk at the time of the former and increase risk at the time of the latter.

There is no better time to experience our service for yourself as we’re currently running a FLASH SALE that offers a 20% discount on annual memberships. The timing to join couldn’t be better as I’ll be providing my Q3 outlook to all EB annual members at 5:30pm ET today. A recording will be provided for those who cannot attend the session live. So if you sign up later today or tomorrow or the next day, we’ll make sure you get a time-stamped copy of the recording.

In the meantime, enjoy this complimentary copy of this week’s report….

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Strong AD (SADCL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Short Squeeze (SSCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Manipulation Spreadsheet*

*We continued to add more stocks to our Manipulation Spreadsheet and you’ll see that a few have tabs, but do not have data yet. Those 3 are still “under construction”. I also added a “Summary” tab where I’ve begun to sort the individual stocks in order based on a proprietary relative AD ranking system. Don’t ask me what it means yet, because it’s still very much a work in progress as well. I’m looking at the intraday relative performance of individual stocks vs. the benchmark S&P 500. So positive percentages represent better intraday AD performance than the S&P 500, while negative percentages represent the opposite. One thing I’ll be watching is to see if stronger relative AD lines precede relative strength in stocks on a forward-looking basis. It certainly did in the case of both Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) from several weeks ago when I pointed out what appeared to me to be significant accumulation in March/April when the stock market bottomed. Both NFLX and MSFT have soared since that time. I’ll keep everyone posted on the progress of my research over the next many weeks and months.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

If you’re a long-term investor, stepping back and looking at the stock market using this 100-year chart enables you to avoid pulling unnecessary sell triggers, because of the media, permabears, negative nellie’s, and all the “news” out there. The above chart never once flashed anything remotely signaling a sell signal and now, here we are, back at all-time highs. Simply put, it filters out all the noise that we hear on a day-to-day basis and keeps our wits about us.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Absolute price action on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 has now seen all-time high breakouts, which alone is quite bullish. We want to see aggressive vs. defensive (or growth vs. value) ratios moving higher to indicate sustainability of any S&P 500 advance. In my view, we’re seeing that. But the intraday QQQ:SPY ratio continues to hesitate. A breakout in this intraday relative ratio would most definitely add to the current bullish market environment.

IWM:QQQ

I’m seeing signs of an impending rate cut by the Fed. However, if I’m being completely honest, one signal that we should see is outperformance in small caps and a rising IWM:QQQ ratio. That hasn’t happened – at least not yet. If a rate cut starts to become clearer, I would absolutely expect to see much more relative strength in small caps. Keep an eye out for that.

XLY:XLP

I pay very close attention to the XLY:XLP ratio and, more specifically, this INTRADAY XLY:XLP ratio. This chart helped me feel confident in calling a market top back in January/February. If you recall, that’s when we said it was waaaaay too risky to be long the U.S. stock market. By the time we had bottomed in April, the blue-shaded area highlighted the fact that the XLY vs. XLP ratio had already begun to SOAR! That’s why, on Friday, April 11th, I said I was ALL IN on the long side again.

These signals are golden and, when used in conjunction with all of our other signals, can provide us extremely helpful clues about stock market direction. If these ratios begin to turn lower in a big way, then yes we’ll need to grow more cautious. However, right now, they couldn’t be any more bullish. Expect higher prices ahead.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The S&P 500 had struggled a bit once 5-day SMA readings of the CPCE fell to the .55 area, a sign of market complacency and a possible short-term top. We saw a bit of a pullback in June, which many times is all we get during a secular bull market advance. My sustainability ratios are supporting a higher move by stocks and I know from history that overbought conditions can remain overbought. I also know that sentiment does a much better job of calling bottoms than it does calling tops. That’s why I will not overreact every time this 5-day moving average of the CPCE falls back below .55. During Q4 2024, we saw plenty of 5-day SMA readings below .55 and, while the S&P 500 was choppy, bullishness prevailed throughout. So just please always keep in mind that these 5-day SMA readings are our “speed boat” sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. When it lines up with other bearish or topping signals, we should take note. But reacting to every subtle move in this chart is a big mistake, in my opinion.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our “ocean-liner” signal, unlike our speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. Look at the above chart. When the 253-day SMA is moving lower like it is now, it accompanies our most bullish S&P 500 moves. It makes perfect common sense as well. Once this 253-day SMA moves to extremely high levels and begins to roll over, the bears have already sold. We typically have nowhere to go on our major indices, except higher once sentiment becomes so bearish. The opposite holds true when the 253-day SMA reaches extreme complacency and starts to turn higher. We saw that to start 2022, which, at the time, I stated was my biggest concern as we started 2022. If you recall, I said to look for a 20-25% cyclical bear market over a 3-6 month period on the first Saturday in January 2022. The above chart was my biggest reason for calling for such a big selloff ahead of the decline.

These charts matter.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked one week ago:

• JPM – challenging all-time high
• BA – substantial improvement, would like to see 185-190 support hold
• FFIV – very bullish action above its 20-month SMA
• MA – very steady and bullish long-term performer
• GS – trending higher above 20-month EMA
• FDX – trying to clear falling 20-week EMA
• AAPL – monthly RSI at 50, which has been an excellent time to buy AAPL over the past two decades
• CHRW – 85-90 is solid longer-term support
• JBHT – would like to see 120-125 support hold
• STX – long-term breakout in play, excellent trade
• HSY – breaking above 175 would be intermediate-term bullish
• DIS – now testing key price resistance in 120-125 range
• MSCI – monthly RSI hanging near 50, solid entry
• SBUX – moved back above 50-week EMA, short-term bullish
• KRE – long-term uptrend remains in play
• ED – has been a solid income-producer and investment since the financial crisis low in 2009
• AJG – few stocks have been steadier to the upside over the past decade
• NSC – continues to sideways consolidate in very bullish fashion
• RHI – trending down with potential sight set on 30
• ADM – looks to be reversing higher off long-term price support near 43
• BG – 65-70 price support held, now looking to clear 50-week SMA to the upside
• CVS – excellent support at 45 or just below, just failed on bounce at 50-month SMA at 72
• IPG – monthly RSI now at 37 and also testing 4-year price support near 22.50
• HRL – long-term price support at 25 and stock now showing positive divergence on monthly chart – bullish
• DE – one of the better 2025 momentum stocks on this list

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: STZ ($29 billion)
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: June Chicago PMI
• Tuesday: June PMI manufacturing, June ISM manufacturing, May construction spending, May JOLTS
• Wednesday: June ADP employment report
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & average hourly earnings, May factory orders, June ISM services
• Friday: None – stock market closed in observance of Independence Day

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Jun 30: +34.34%
• Jul 1: +72.77%
• Jul 2: +16.76%
• Jul 3: +77.19%
• Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
• Jul 5: +39.40%
• Jul 6: +22.32%
• Jul 7: +17.62%
• Jul 8: -16.29%
• Jul 9: +76.54%
• Jul 10: -16.59%
• Jul 11: +13.23%
• Jul 12: +36.89%
• Jul 13: -5.67%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Jun 30: +73.30%
• Jul 1: +63.18%
• Jul 2: -47.43%
• Jul 3: +46.02%
• Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
• Jul 5: +7.04%
• Jul 6: -10.79%
• Jul 7: +60.19%
• Jul 8: -10.10%
• Jul 9: +86.44%
• Jul 10: -27.94%
• Jul 11: +11.18%
• Jul 12: +128.28%
• Jul 13: +61.52%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Jun 30: +99.14%
• Jul 1: +30.53%
• Jul 2: -113.05%
• Jul 3: +44.57%
• Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
• Jul 5: -4.89%
• Jul 6: -76.61%
• Jul 7: +43.95%
• Jul 8: +37.24%
• Jul 9: +31.88%
• Jul 10: -17.39%
• Jul 11: +29.75%
• Jul 12: +89.15%
• Jul 13: +63.13%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

All-time highs are always a time for me to say “I told you so” to the bears, since I’ve been a firm believer that we remain in a secular bull market advance – one in which we should EXPECT to see higher prices and all-time highs. This latest rally is being fully supported by risk-on areas of the market, which will almost certainly lead for more and more all-time highs down the road.

Here are several things I’m watching this week:

• Jobs. The ADP employment report will be out on Wednesday and the more-closely-watched nonfarm payrolls will be released on Thursday this week since the stock market is closed on Friday. ANY sign of weakness in these reports will begin to put mounting pressure on the Fed to cut rates in late July at their next meeting.
• Technical Price Action. Any time we’re setting new all-time highs, I start off with a bullish mindset. I only turn bearish if I’m inundated with warning signals. Currently, I see few of those.
• History. We can now turn our attention to upcoming earnings season and, historically, that’s a bullish thing. Pre-earnings season runs to the upside are common and, if you scroll up and check out historical returns for days over the next couple weeks, you’ll see that July normally performs well – especially the first half of the month.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX). The 10-year treasury yield has been in decline for 3 straight weeks, falling from 4.52% on June 9th to 4.24% just a few minutes ago. The money rotating into bonds is a very strong signal that inflation is NOT a problem. It’s also a signal that the Fed “should be” considering a rate cut at its next meeting.
• Breakouts. We’ve seen big breakouts in key areas like semiconductors ($DJUSSC), software ($DJUSSW), and investment services ($DJUSSB), but there will be plenty more. Travel & tourism ($DJUSTT) joined the party on Thursday. Banks ($DJUSBK) are on the verge of a breakout. The way I look at it? The more the merrier!

Happy trading!

Tom

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights key pullback opportunities and reversal setups in the wake of a strong market week, one which saw all-time highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. She breaks down the semiconductor surge and explores the bullish momentum in economically-sensitive sectors, including software, regional banks, and small-caps. Watch as she highlights top stocks to add to your watchlist, including FedEx, XPO, CHRW, and RL, plus identifies downtrend reversal candidates like AeroVironment (AVAV) and Nike, supported by volume and technical breakouts. In addition, she covers smart entry tactics, examining historical precedent with Coinbase.

This video originally premiered on June 27, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

After six weeks of consolidation and trading in a defined range, the markets finally broke out from this formation and ended the week with gains. Over the past five sessions, the markets have largely traded with a positive undercurrent, continuing to edge higher. The trading range was wider than anticipated; the Nifty traded in an 829-point range over the past few days. Volatility took a backseat; the India Vix slumped by 9.40% to 12.39 on a weekly basis. While trending higher throughout the week, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 525.40 points (2.09%).

The breakout that occurred in the previous week has pushed the support level higher for the Index. Now, the most immediate support level has been dragged higher to the 25100-25150 zone, the one that the markets penetrated to move higher. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this zone, it is likely to continue moving higher. Over the coming weeks, we are also likely to see a distinct shift in the leadership, with the sectors that were in the bottoming-out process taking the lead. This would also mean that one must now focus on taking profits in the spaces that have run up much harder over the past week. While protecting gains, it would be wise to shift focus to the sectors that are likely to see much improved relative strength going forward from here.

The levels of 25750 and 26000 are likely to act as potential resistance levels for the coming week. The supports come in at the 25,300 and 25,000 levels. The trading range is likely to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI is 64.58; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A large white candle emerged, indicating the directional strength that the markets exhibited throughout the week.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty initially crossed above the rising trendline pattern resistance. This trendline began from the low of 21150 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. However, the Nifty consolidated above the breakout point for six weeks before finally resuming its move higher. The Index has pushed its resistance levels higher; as long as the Index stays above the 25000 level, this breakout will remain valid.

It is also important to note that the Nifty’s Relative Strength (RS) line is attempting to reverse its trajectory. This may lead to the frontline index improving its relative performance against the broader markets. Along with this shift in relative strength, it is also strongly recommended that one consider protecting gains in sectors that have risen significantly over the past several weeks. The leadership over the coming weeks is likely to change, making rotating sectors even more important than before. While protecting gains, new purchases must be initiated in sectors that are showing improvement in momentum and relative strength. While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, a positive outlook is suggested for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that only two sector Indices, Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty PSU Bank Index, are inside the leading quadrant. While the Midcap Index continues to rotate strongly, the PSU Bank Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum. These two groups are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty PSE Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. This may result in the sector slowing down on its relative performance. The Nifty Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Banknifty, and the Services Sector Index are also inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Consumption Index has rolled into the lagging quadrant. The FMCG Index and the Pharma Index also continue to languish inside this quadrant. The Nifty Metal Index is also located within the lagging quadrant; however, it is sharply improving its relative momentum compared to the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty, Media, IT, Auto, and Energy Indices are located within the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to assume leadership over the coming weeks as they continue to improve their relative momentum and strength compared to the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

As we head into the second half of 2025, here are three stocks that present strong technical setups with favorable risk/reward profiles. One is the largest market cap stock we’re familiar with, which bodes well for the market in general. The second is an old tech giant that’s making a comeback. The third is a beaten-down S&P 500 name that may be ready to rally.

Let’s dive into these three stocks.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is Leading the Market

Nvidia (NVDA) shares have finally broken out and closed above $150, a level we’ve been closely watching. With price action above that resistance threshold, NVDA’s stock price has room to run.

DeepSeek and tariff concerns seem to be in the rearview mirror. The fundamental positives are continued earnings growth, continued large tech cap-ex spend, and, more recently, Jensen Huang’s unveiling of a cute robot he feels could be the next big thing.

Technically, this move has legs, and we have the patterns and history to show for it. The risk/reward set-up is now quite favorable. Let’s break it down.

Over the last five years, there have been periods of consolidation (green boxes) and then significant breakouts to the upside. In all cases, shares became overbought according to the relative strength index (RSI). But overbought doesn’t mean NVDA’s stock price will reverse. During uptrends, overbought conditions can last for quite some time, as they did after the prior two significant breakouts.

With the official breakout above $150 and RSI again reading over 70, history suggests an extended rally is in the cards. A gain of 25–30% from current levels and a run to $200 is likely.

The downside risk is to the $150 level, from which shares just broke out. If this move is just a head fake, then use that level as a stop to limit your losses. This risk/reward set-up is why we believe this is one to own for the back half of 2025.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Finds New Life

Old-timers like me may remember what a high flyer Cisco Systems (CSCO) once was. It’s been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) since June 2009, and shares have struggled to sustain any upward momentum until lately.

Fundamentally, the company continued to grow through acquisition. Now, those deals are starting to help their bottom line, namely the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk that closed in 2024. 

Technically — and that’s what we care about on the StockCharts platform — we can have some fun.

Below is a 30-year chart going back to the dot-com boom. Cisco was one of Wall Street’s darlings and climbed astronomically before falling from the skies. It has struggled to revisit those levels, but that could change soon. 

Switching to a smaller time frame — a three-year weekly chart (see below) — we are seeing great set-ups as we head into the back half of 2025.

CSCO’s stock price consolidated between $43 and $55 for 15 months and broke out in late 2024. Shares rallied and then pulled back to old resistance (now support) at $55 and began their climb back.

Now shares are breaking out again. An upside target of $82, the all-time high set back during the dot-com era, is within reach and may just get there by year-end. The risk/reward seems favorable and, given the run in tech and cyber stocks which CSCO represents, the momentum is there to reach those highs.

Generac’s Power Play

Welcome to hurricane season! It lasts from June 1st to November 30. Generac (GNRC), a leader in home backup power, tends to perform well during weather extremes. It isn’t always the primary catalyst for rallies over the long term in the stock, but it can spur short-term rallies.

Last week, as much of the country was in the middle of a heat wave, GNRC had the best week of gains since November 2024, rallying nearly 12%. The trend change seems to be underway. Shares are lower by -8.1% year-to-date, and there’s room to run.

However, the charts are showing signs of life. Let’s keep this one as simple as possible.

The stock broke its longer-term downtrend (red line)

Shares have made a consistent set of higher lows (green uptrend)

Shares recaptured their 50-day moving average

Shares consolidated in an ascending triangle and broke out

Shares tested and failed to recapture their 200-day moving average

Progress is being made. The trend has changed, there’s something to reverse, and seasonal factors and reduced tariff concerns are a true tailwind.

Shares could easily pull back — a flag, if you will — to the $135 area, but should be a great entry point from a risk/reward perspective. Overall, shares are poised to continue reversing that longer-term downtrend, and could be a good addition to the portfolio for the end of 2025.

The Bottom Line

Each of these stocks offers a viable investment strategy with favorable risk-to-reward ratios. If you’re going to enter a position, use clearly-defined stop levels to manage your risks.

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Over a month ago, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) appeared on our StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Top 10 list. SCTRs are an exclusive StockCharts tool that can help you quickly find stocks showing strong technical strength relative to other stocks in a similar category.

Now, the stock market is dynamic, and SMCI, like many stocks, went through a consolidation period with its price trading within a certain range. While SMCI was basically moving sideways, other stocks, such as Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), and Roblox Corp. (RBLX), took their turn on the Top 10 SCTR list.

Spotting SMCI’s Potential Turnaround

After over a month of this sideways movement, SMCI is starting to show signs of a breakout. This can often be a sign of renewed strength for a stock to move higher, though there’s no guarantee.

A significant factor behind SMCI’s rise is the strength in AI-related tech stocks, which has given the broader market a big boost. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) hit record highs, and other major indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and S&P 500 ($SPX) are just a hair away from hitting their record highs. For as long as this positive trend remains in place, SMCI will likely ride higher with the market.

Let’s break down SMCI’s daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. SMCI broke out of a trading range and has the potential to rise higher if momentum strengthens. Monitor momentum indicators such as the RSI and PPO.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

SMCI’s SCTR score was at 95.5 after Thursday’s close. The stock is trading comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average, its relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the 70 level, and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) is starting to show encouraging signs of positive momentum (see daily chart below).

Since SMCI has hit a high of $122.90, your initial thought might be that the stock has significant upside potential. It very well could. However, a key part of smart investing is understanding and managing risk. You know very well that any negative news headline is bound to send SMCI tumbling back to its lows; after all, it’s happened before.

Let’s say you spotted this breakout. The ideal approach is to wait for a pullback and a reversal back to the upside with strong follow-through before entering a long position. However, given the stock is moving relatively quickly, you let FOMO get to you and decided to enter a long SMCI position at around $48.

With the stock closing near its high for the day, there is the possibility of a higher move at the open, short of any negative news. But nothing is guaranteed, and you need downside protection for your position. Initially, your stop loss would be the top end of SMCI’s trading range. But what about your upside price targets?

For this, I turned to the weekly chart of SMCI and, using the annotation tool, added Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November low.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. Annotating Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November 2024 low is one way to identify price targets.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Your first price target could be the 38.2% level, which falls just below $60. This aligns with the February high and was an area where the stock price stalled during August 2024 before it continued lower. If SMCI’s stock price hits that level, don’t be surprised if it wavers here. It could continue higher or fall lower depending on investor sentiment toward AI stocks.

Closing Position

Remember, protecting your capital is of utmost importance, regardless of whether the trade goes in your favor or not. Use stops with discipline, since stocks like SMCI can move both up and down quickly. Your objective should be to keep your losses small and let your profits run until the upside momentum dries up.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.