Stay ahead of the market in under 30 minutes! In this video, Mary Ellen breaks down why the S&P 500 just broke out, which sectors are truly leading (industrials, technology & materials), and what next week’s inflation data could mean for your portfolio.

This video originally premiered June 6, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

I’m a huge fan of using platforms like StockCharts to help make my investment process more efficient and more effective.  The StockCharts scan engine helps me identify stocks that are demonstrating constructive technical configuration based on the shape and relationship of multiple moving averages.

Today I’ll share with you one of my favorite scans, called “Moving Averages in Correct Order”, and walk through three charts that highlight the benefits of identifying charts in primary uptrend phases.

Primary Uptrends Can Be Defined By Moving Averages

This scan, which StockCharts members can access in the Sample Scan Library, basically looks for three criteria to be met for any chart:

1. 20-day EMA > 50-day SMA
2. 50-day SMA > 100-day SMA
3. 100-day SMA > 200-day SMA

The general approach here is to find charts where the short-term moving averages are above their longer-term counterparts.  By making multiple comparisons, we can ensure a more consistent uptrend phase based on the recent price action.  

Let’s review two charts that I feel are representative of the stocks that will tend to come up using this scanning approach.

You’ll Probably Find Two Types of Charts in the Results

The most common result will be a chart that is in a long-term primary uptrend, making consistently higher highs and higher lows.  Netflix (NFLX) is a great example of this sort of “long and strong” price action.

The four moving averages have remained in the proper order as described above for most of the last 12 months.  After NFLX pulled back to its April low, a bounce back above the March swing high moved the 21-day exponential moving average back above the 50-day simple moving average.  From that breakout point, the stock has continued to push to new all-time highs into early June.

One thing I love about this scan is it helps me confirm which stocks are in persistent uptrends, because those are the types of charts that I generally want to be following as they trend higher.  But sometimes, a pullback chart will come up in the scan as well.  Here’s TJX, which has recently pulled back after achieving a new all-time high in May.

We can see that the moving averages returned to the proper order in early April after rotating higher off a major low in mid-March.  From that point, TJX had a false breakout in mid-April before finally completing the move to a new high in early May.  TJX subsequently gapped lower after an earnings miss, and the stock has now pulled back to an ascending 50-day moving average.

The TJX chart reminds me of three benefits of following moving averages over time.  First, we can look at the slope of an individual moving average to evaluate the shape of the trend on a specific time frame.  Second, we can compare multiple moving averages to validate the trend on multiple time frames.  Finally, we can use moving averages as potential support and resistance levels in the event of a pullback.

With TJX testing an ascending 50-day moving average this week, I’m inclined to treat this chart as “innocent until proven guilty” as long as it remains above this key trend barometer.  But if and when the 50-day moving average is violated, and if the moving averages are no longer in the proper order, then I would need to reevaluate a long position.

Why the Transition to Proper Order is So Important

This final example shows how the transition between moving average configurations can prove so valuable in understanding trend transitions.  Here’s a daily chart of VeriSign (VRSN) showing how the relationship between the moving averages can help us better label the different trend phases.

On the left third of the chart, we can see the moving averages mostly in a bearish order, confirming a distribution phase for the stock.  Then in June 2024, the moving averages change to where there’s no real clean definition of the trend.  This represents a consolidation phase, where buyers and sellers are essentially in agreement.

Finally, we can see that when the moving averages finally achieve a bullish configuration, VRSN is now in an accumulation phase of higher highs and higher lows.  And as long as those moving averages remain in the proper order, the uptrend phase is confirmed.

The goal with this moving average scan is to help us identify charts that are just rotating into the accumulation phase.  It’s also designed to encourage us to stick with winning trends as long as the price action confirms the uptrend.  And if and when the moving average configuration changes, then our approach should probably change as well!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Recently, the S&P 500 ($SPX) has been racking up a good number of wins.

Since late April, the index has logged its third winning streak of at least five: a nine-day streak from April 22–May 2 and a six-day streak from May 12–May 19. That makes for a cluster of long winning streaks, which is something that also showed up in late 2023 and mid-2024.

To put it simply, these bunches of buying usually show up in uptrends. Note how there were no five-day winning streaks during the three corrections pictured on the chart below (in August–October 2023, July–August 2024, and February–April 2025). Most of the clusters happened as the S&P 500 was in the middle of a consistent upswing; the only time we saw a long winning streak occur right before a big downturn was in late July 2024. That came after a strong three-month run from the April lows, with the S&P 500 gaining 14% in three months.

CHART 1. WINNING STREAKS IN THE S&P 500. Since late April, the S&P 500 has logged a nine-day streak from April 22 to May 2 and a six-day streak from May 12 to May 19.

Currently, the SPX is up 23% in just under two months. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a break in the action at some point soon.

The key difference between now and July is that back in July, the S&P 500 was making new highs for two straight months. That’s not the case now, as the index is still below the February 2025 highs. So it’s not apples to apples, but, at some point, the market will have to deal with more than a minor pullback once again.

Sentiment Check

After the close on Wednesday, I ran an X poll asking if the 0.01% move was bullish or bearish. The result: 61% said bullish.

This tells us that most people saw Wednesday’s pause as a sign that the bears are unable to push the market higher, which could be true. But it also suggests complacency. The onus still is squarely on the bears to do something with this, with the only true sign of weakness in the last six weeks coming on May 21, when the S&P 500 plummeted 1.6%. That ended up being an aberration… for now.

UBER Stock: One to Watch

Sometimes, a specific stock can provide clues about the broader market’s next step. Right now, we think that the stock is UBER.

Technically speaking, UBER is at a critical spot, and it’s also an important stock given that it was one of the first growth names to break out to new all-time highs. The stock remains in a long-term uptrend, which, of course, is bullish, but it has quietly pulled back 13% from its May 20 high of $93 and was just down nine out of 10 trading sessions (see the weekly chart of UBER stock). We can see that the stock has fully retraced the price action from the pattern breakout near $82.

CHART 2. WEEKLY CHART OF UBER STOCK. The stock is in a long-term uptrend, although it has retraced. Here’s where things get really interesting. UBER has now formed a potential bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, seen on the daily chart. If the stock breaks below $82, it will target the 71-zone.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF UBER STOCK. Will UBER’s stock price hold support or break below it? This chart is one to monitor.

So, here are three outcomes to watch for. UBER’s stock price could:

1. Hold support (bullish).
2. Break below $82, but then reverse higher, which would be a bear trap (bullish).
3. Break below $82 and continue lower and hit the downside target (bearish).

If #3 occurs, the odds are UBER won’t be declining by itself; it’ll likely drag the broader market down with it. This shows the significance of UBER stock, which certainly makes it one to keep an eye on.

A lot has happened in the stock market since Liberation Day, keeping us on our toes. Volatility has declined significantly, stocks have bounced back from their April 7 low, and the economy has remained resilient.

If you’re still feeling uncertain, though, you’re not alone. The stock market’s in a bit of a “wait and see” mode, going through a period of consolidation as it figures out its next move. 

The S&P 500 ($SPX) is hesitating to hit 6000 despite reclaiming its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This indecision can leave investors feeling stuck in “no man’s land.” And it’s not just the S&P 500, either; most major indexes are in a similar scenario, except for small caps, which have been left behind. This could be because the market has priced in a delay in interest rate cut expectations.

Tech Is Taking the Lead

If you drill down into the major indexes, there is some action you shouldn’t ignore. Tech stocks have started to take the lead again, although momentum has been lacking. Over the past month, the Technology sector has been up over 4%.

FIGURE 1. S&P SECTOR ETF PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. Technology is the clear leader with a gain of over 4%.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. It’s encouraging to see tech stocks regain their leadership position. Tech is a major force behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). The daily chart of the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) shows the ETF has been trying to break above a consolidation range it has been stuck in since mid-May.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLK. Although the ETF has barely broken above its consolidation range, we need to see greater momentum to confirm a follow through to the upside.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Nothing is standing in the way of XLK reaching its all-time high, but the momentum isn’t quite there yet. The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) is below 70 and looks to be stalling, pretty much in line with the overall stock market’s price action.

So, what’s the market waiting for? Maybe a catalyst, like Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This week’s JOLTS, ADP, and ISM Services data didn’t move the needle much, but the NFP report could be the game changer.

S&P 500 Technical Forecast

Where could the S&P 500 go from here? Let’s dive into the weekly chart.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The index is spitting distance to its all-time high. A break above the November high would clear the path to new highs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 broke above its 40-week SMA on the week of May 12 and has held above it. However, it has been in a consolidation for the last month, similar to that of XLK.

The S&P 500 is approaching its November high of 6017. A break above it could push it toward new highs. On the flip side, if it slides below the 40-week SMA, it would be a cause for concern and could mean the May 12 gap-up could get filled. Keep an eye on the 5688 level. If the S&P 500 pulls back close to that level and turns around, it would be a healthy correction — an opportunity to buy the dip. A further downside move would mean exercising patience or unloading some of your positions.

What’s Going On With Gold and Bonds?

While stocks are grinding sideways, gold prices are rising, and bond prices are showing green shoots. This price action tells us that investors could be bracing for slower growth ahead. It’s not something to panic about — just something to watch.

You can get a quick look at what gold, bonds, and all the major indexes are doing by checking out the StockCharts Market Summary page and Your Dashboard.

So, what should you do?

Hold, add, or fold? That’s the big question. The market needs time to digest a lot, from economic data to geopolitical risks and policy headlines. Keep checking in and monitor the sectors, observe index performance, and note how other areas of the market, such as precious metals and bonds, are reacting.

 Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Joe walks through a comprehensive lesson on using the ADX (Average Directional Index) as part of a technical analysis strategy. Joe explains the key components of the ADX indicator, how to interpret DI+ and DI- lines, and how to identify strong or weak trends in the market. He also covers how to combine ADX with price action and volatility to improve timing and trading decisions.

In addition, Joe analyzes SPY, QQQ, IWM, and individual stocks like AMPX, UNH, and more, focusing on trend conditions, MACD, price structure, and key moving averages.

The video premiered on June 4, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

In this market update, Frank breaks down recent developments across the S&P 500, crypto markets, commodities, and international ETFs. He analyzes bullish and bearish chart patterns, identifies key RSI signals, and demonstrates how “Go No Go Charts” can support your technical analysis. You’ll also hear updates on Ethereum, Bitcoin, the Spain ETF, silver miners, USO (oil), and sector ETFs like XLP and XLV.

This video originally premiered on June 3, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

In this video, Dave shares his weekly stock scan strategy used to identify bullish stock trends. He illustrates how to set up this powerful scan, reveals the tips and tricks he uses to identify the most constructive patterns, and explains the four winning chart setups that tend to come up week after week.

Whether you’re a beginner or seasoned trader, this guide will enhance your charting process and help you uncover winning trade setups using technical analysis.

This video originally premiered on June 3, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

In this video, Mary Ellen highlights key areas of the stock market that gained strength last week, including Staples and Aerospace stocks. She also shares several Dividend Aristocrat stocks that can help stabilize your portfolio in times of market volatility. Whether you’re seeking defensive plays or looking to align with sector rotation trends, this video provides practical insights to strengthen your trading strategy.

This video originally premiered May 30, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Earnings season may be winding down, but a few standout names could still make headlines this week. If you’re looking for potential moves, keep an eye on these three stocks — Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), and Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO).

Each of these names is at a pretty interesting inflection point right now. It might be worth waiting to see how things play out before making any big bets.

Dollar Tree (DLTR): Quiet Comeback with Room to Run?

Dollar Tree (DLTR) broke out of a long-term downtrend and, as of the last quarter, is back above key moving averages. Many of the beaten-down discount chains, such as Five Below (FIVE) and Dollar General (DG), have started to reverse major downtrends. This week, we will see if earnings momentum can keep going, as DLTR stock has rallied 21% year-to-date.

Investors will be looking for insight into how DLTR is navigating the transition after the $1 billion Family Dollar sale (yes, they paid $8.5 billion in 2015) and how its core stores are performing in the current economic environment. The last two quarters have been relatively calm, as DLTR stabilized with minor gains of 3.1% and 1.9%. That stability comes after a three-quarter losing streak, with average losses of -13.7%.

From a technical standpoint, DLTR made its big move in mid-April as it broke out of a longer-term neutral range and a long-term downtrend. The stock price has eclipsed the 50- and 200-day moving averages and seems to be back on the right track.

The breakout of the rectangular bottom gives an upside target of roughly $98 a share, so there is room for DLTR to run. That move would fill the gap created last September and bring shares into a stronger resistance area around $100. On the downside, there may be an opportunity to enter DLTR, as we have a potential scenario where old resistance becomes support, giving an entry level around $79.50/$80. That would be a good risk/reward set-up for those who may have missed the initial breakout.

Overall, the stock still has room to run, but most of this upside move may already be in the stock, as the price approached an overbought condition with much overhead resistance ahead.

CrowdStrike (CRWD): Heating Up Before Earnings

CrowdStrike (CRWD) has returned from the ashes after last year’s Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) computer outage that caused over 7000 cancelled flights. As it heads into this week’s earnings, shares are trading just under all-time highs.

The cybersecurity company has seen shares decline over the past two results, but that hasn’t stopped its continued momentum. The stock averages a one-day move of +/- 8.5%, so expect volatility.

Technically, CRWD comes into the week at an intriguing pivot point. After breaking out to new highs, the stock pulled back to its old resistance areas from which it broke above.  Will old resistance become support, or are we looking at a potential bull trap?

The relative strength index (RSI) indicates there may be room to run. We have seen some extreme overbought conditions in the past, and we are not there yet. A solid beat and guide could see additional momentum in what continues to be one of the top stocks within the cybersecurity sector.

Speaking of strength, CRWD is shining on a relative basis. It’s up 36.7% year-to-date, outperforming CIBR, the biggest cybersecurity ETF in CIBR, which is up 12.8%. That said, downside risk could be steep given the recent run. Stepping in front of this stock ahead of results could be costly. On weakness, wait for a better risk/reward entry and look for support just around $405.

Broadcom (AVGO): Ready to Step Out of Nvidia’s Shadow?

Broadcom (AVGO) is Nvidia’s baby brother. It is in the $1 trillion market cap club, a top holding in both the Semiconductor ETF (SMH), the Technology ETF (XLK), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).

AVGO has grown mightily in NVDA’s shadow for years now. Shares have rallied just over 500% from their 2022 lows, which pales to the 1250+% rally in Nvidia. However, over the past 52 weeks, AVGO shares have risen 82% compared to Nvidia’s 23% gain.

Now that we’ve seen how price action settled out with NVDA, what could this mean for AVGO?

Technically, if AVGO wanted to step out of NVDA’s shadows, this would be the chance to do so and lead the semiconductors higher. However, momentum is waning, and we continue to see large caps struggle to make new highs.

The table is set for a potentially large breakout. AVGO is at a key resistance area just under $250. It couldn’t break through it last week, but could earnings be the catalyst for getting it over the top? Given the overbought conditions and tough market environment, it should be a challenge. You may be able to buy this stock on a dip and wait for the rest of the market to catch up as we look for more clarity on tariff policy. Look for a pullback to the $220 area to add to or enter the name.

Long-term investors should ignore the noise to come. AVGO has suffered through the worst and should break out in due time. It just may not be this time.

Over the past five sessions, the Indian equity markets headed nowhere and continued consolidating in a defined range. In the previous weekly note, it was categorically expected that the markets might stay devoid of any directional bias unless they either take out the upper edge or violate the lower edge of the consolidation zone. In line with the analysis, the Nifty oscillated in a 401.90-point range over the past five days. The volatility also retraced; the India Vix came off by 6.95% to 16.08 on a weekly basis. While staying absolutely range-bound, the headline index Nifty 50 closed with a minor weekly loss of 102.45 points (-0.41%).

As we step into the new week, the markets find themselves in a defined trading range, more toward the edge of the pattern support on the weekly chart. The Nifty appears to continue being in a well-defined trading range between 25100 and 24500 levels. This also implies that a directional trend would emerge only if the Nifty takes out 25100 convincingly or ends up violating the 24500 level. Unless either of these two things happens, the markets will remain devoid of directional bias and will continue staying in this defined range. The present technical structure makes it even more important to maintain a steadfast focus on protecting profits at higher levels and the rotation of sectors where a likely leadership change is visible.

The coming week is expected to see the levels of 25000 and 25175 acting as resistance points. The supports come in at 24500 and 24380 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 59.02; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that after forming the most recent swing high at 25116, the Nifty has resisted this level for two subsequent weeks. This makes the level of 25100-25150 an important hurdle for the Nifty. Secondly, the Index has closed just at the support of an upward rising trendline; if this gets violated, the markets may see some more corrective retracement. Overall, the zone of 24500-24600 remains a crucial support area for the markets.

While the Nifty stays in the 25100-24500 zone and consolidates, focusing on protecting profits at higher levels would be wise. While the market keeps its underlying trend intact, it continues to remain prone to some extended corrective retracement until the levels of 25100 are taken out on the upside convincingly. During this phase, it makes more sense to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels and stay highly selective in making fresh purchases. While limiting the purchases to favorably rotating sectors, a cautious outlook is recommended for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index is the only Index inside the leading quadrant that continues to improve its relative momentum against the broader markets. The other sectors present inside the leading quadrant are PSE, Infrastructure, Consumption, and FMCG, and these groups show continued paring of relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Commodities and the Nifty Bank Index have rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Financial Services and the Services sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. It is likely to relatively underperform along with the Pharma Index which also continues to languish inside this quadrant. The IT Index is also inside the lagging quadrant, but is seen sharply improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Realty, Media, Energy, Midcap 100, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant. They are likely to continue improving their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae