My recent discussions on the Market Misbehavior podcast have often included some comments on the interest rate environment, particularly the shape of the yield curve.  We’ve had an inverted yield curve since late 2022, and so the yield curve taking on a more normal shape could mean a huge tailwind to certain sectors and groups.  

When the Yield Curve is No Longer Inverted

Here we’re showing the Ten Year Treasury Yield along with two ways to show the shape of the yield curve by comparing different durations.  The first panel below the price compares the 3-month yield to the 10-year yield, and the bottom panel shows the 2-year yield versus the 10-year yield.

Back in 2022, both of these spreads went below the zero line, indicating that the yield curve was inverted because long-term yields were now lower than short-term yields.  Due to the Fed raising short-term interest rates to try to bring inflation in check after the COVID pandemic, along with a general downtrend in bond prices, this inverted shape to the curve raised fears among investors for a recession.

With inflationary pressures fairly subsiding into late 2024, the Fed has now begun lowering short-term rates, which will most likely cause the yield curve to regain a normal shape.  As we can see from the Dynamic Yield Curve tool on StockCharts, the yield curve moving back to a normal shape can often lead to lower stock prices in the short-term.  However, two ETFs come to mind that should do better in this new market phase.

Regional Banks Get a Major Tailwind

The financial sector in general experienced a particularly weak start to the year, with financials underperforming growth sectors into the summer.  But regional banks have begun to mount a fairly strong rally in Q4, perhaps reflecting optimism going into 2025.

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has shown a series of breakouts in 2024, including a new 52-week high in July on strong momentum, as well as a gap higher in early November.  KRE now sits above two upward-sloping moving averages, and the RSI suggests strong but not excessive momentum.

Regional banks essentially borrow money at the short end of the curve, then lend those funds out to individuals at the long end of the curve to buy houses and make other large purchases.  A steeper yield curve would imply a much more hospitable environment for regional banks, which could mean much further upside for KRE.

Small Caps Could Thrive Given Sector Weightings

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both heavily weighted in growth sectors like technology and communication services, the small cap indexes feature much more of a balanced exposure to value and growth stocks.  As guest Tom Bowley pointed out on our podcast, Smaller companies usually need to borrow money, so lower rates could mean a better environment for small caps as well.

Here we’re applying our Market Trend Model to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).  Similar to our main Market Trend Model using the S&P 500, we can see that small caps have shown bullish signals on the long-term and medium-term models for all of 2024.  While the short-term model has turned negative a number of times this year, the model currently indicates short-term strength.

The key with small caps is the relative strength, which measures whether the IWM is actually outperforming the S&P 500.  While small caps have been moving higher in the second half of the year, they have still been underperforming large caps.  However, given this shift in interest rates, we could be heading into a new year where small caps represent a decent opportunity to outperform the SPX.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The broader stock market indexes sold off slightly ahead of the November Non-Farm Payrolls data, which will be released Friday morning. Depending on which way the data goes, the market could sell off further or continue its bullish ride. If the market sells off, which stocks are flashing buy signals? To help me identify stocks to watch, I ran my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan to identify which stocks were gaining technical strength.

My SCTR scan filtered 53 stocks and ETFs, which I sorted based on the universe (U) (the scan syntax is at the end of the article). I prefer to look at large-cap stocks and identify which ones are potential investing candidates. Going down Thursday’s list, the first stock that interested me was Cisco Systems (CSCO), mainly because of its simple and clear-looking chart.

Simplicity Attracts

The weekly chart of CSCO stock shows it reached a new all-time high on a relatively sharp upside move since the week of September 9. CSCO’s stock price is trading above its 5-week exponential moving average (EMA) and its 15-week simple moving average (SMA).

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF CSCO STOCK. The SCTR score is just above 76, the stock price is trading above its 5-week EMA, and its RSI has crossed above 70. There’s no indication of a reversal in the uptrend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score has crossed above the 76 threshold, and its relative strength index (RSI) is just above 70. From the data in the Symbol Summary page for CSCO, the stock is up 29.29% over one year. These are all indications that the price action in CSCO stock remains bullish.

Let’s now examine the daily chart of CSCO stock to determine whether it is worth buying and what the ideal entry and exit points will be. The daily chart confirms the shorter-term trend is still up. The upward-sloping trendline coincides with the 21-day EMA, and trading volume is slightly increasing.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF CSCO STOCK. The stock has retained its uptrend bouncing off its 21-day EMA. CSCO is also outperforming the Nasdaq Composite slightly. The Full Stochastic oscillator indicates the stock is overbought.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

CSCO’s performance shows it’s outperforming the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) by 15.64% (see panel below CSCO stock price chart). The Full Stochastic oscillator shows the stock is overbought but, as you can see from past data, the oscillator can stay overbought for an extended period.

The Game Plan

CSCO may not be as glamorous as some of the other mega-cap tech stocks, but its path is a steady and slow uptrend. This may be the reason it’s outperforming the Nasdaq and possibly some of the other more volatile mega-cap stocks, such as NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Apple, Inc. (AAPL).

If CSCO’s price action continues grinding higher slowly and steadily, I would look for a pullback, which might be to the 21-day EMA or above. I’ll watch the market closely on Friday after the November NFP report is released to see if there’s a selloff or if market continues rising higher.

As long as the technicals stay in place for an uptrend, the stock is a buy. When any of the indicators no longer support the uptrend, you abandon the stock or do not even consider buying it.

Sometimes, as Bruce Lee would say, “Simplicity is the key to brilliance.”

The SCTR Scan

[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

As part of your daily trading routine, you likely start the day by checking the news and stock prices to identify potential market opportunities. However, as you already know, news and price performance can only give you a snapshot context—a starting point for a much more thorough analysis.

Financial media often highlights the price performance of notable stocks, but understanding its significance is another matter. A single price snapshot doesn’t uncover trading opportunities, but analyzing price within the context of consistent movement can.

One way to get a comprehensive view of this context is using a MarketCarpets chart configured to display [Up Days] – [Down Days].

What is MarketCarpets’ Up Days – Down Days?

This indicator setting counts the number of days a stock moves higher, then subtracts the number of days it moves lower, during a specified timeframe. (It’s best to start with at least a 5-day change.)

Why use this indicator? It’s all about consistency, or finding stocks with consistent increases or decreases. For instance, a stock’s one-day jump tells you very little. From where did it jump? What was its price action in the previous days? What is its trend context?

A single day’s movement can be unreliable simply because it doesn’t say much beyond the current day. You’ll have to check the charts to get a broader context. Fortunately, you can save time and get an overview of all stocks using MarketCarpets’ Up Days – Down Days setting.

For example, look at what happened in the Technology Sector -> Software Industry on Wednesday (see image below). The stock that pops out immediately is Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), not only because of the size of its market cap but also the company’s overall significance in the tech industry and beyond.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS CHART OF SOFTWARE SET TO ONE-MONTH VIEW OF UP DAYS – DOWN DAYS. MSFT, up 9 days, is the largest stock by market cap in this segment.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you hover over the square, you’ll get a small pop-up showing you MSFT’s chart. But we’ll take a closer look to drill down into the broader context of this MarketCarpets reading. MSFT has had nine up-days minus down-days over the last month, but what exactly does that mean, and does it present a tradable opportunity?

Let’s start with a daily chart of MSFT. 

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF MSFT. After being in a trading range for about four months, Is MSFT poised for a breakout?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Given Microsoft’s significance in all things “tech,” it wouldn’t hurt to get a breadth reading on the sector’s performance. To this end, the S&P Technology Sector Bullish Percent Index, $BPINFO (see magenta square), tells you that over 70% of tech stocks are exhibiting Point & Figure buy signals, which indicates cautious bullishness, as some stocks may be overbought.

MSFT’s sideways movement, a range that lasted nearly four months, coincided with negative buying pressure in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). But the current attempt to break above resistance at $440 is accompanied by a notable surge in buying pressure (see magenta rectangle in the CMF panel).

A bullish trader would likely enter a long position at a break of $440, set a stop loss at $425 (given the concentration of trading volume — see the magenta line and Volume-by-Price), and watch $466, MSFT’s all-time-high as a technical target price (fundamental targets will differ).

In contrast, let’s look at the worst performers using the same MarketCarpets view. You can do this by cycling through each sector on MarketCarpets to get a comprehensive view of which industries seem to be underperforming. Here’s what I discovered in the Investment Services industry within the Financial sector (see image below).

FIGURE 3. ONE-MONTH MARKETCARPETS CHART OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR’S INVESTMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. Among the big brokerages, Morgan Stanley (MS) appears to be one of the bigger underperformers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the MarketCarpets’ Up Days minus Down Days calculation indicates weakness or underperformance, it helps to look at the wider context of trend, momentum, and overall technical strength.

Morgan Stanley (MS) has experienced more down days than up days over the past month relative to its peers. Could this signal weakness weighing upon its share price? Let’s shift to a daily chart for a closer look.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF MORGAN STANLEY. A rounding top pattern can indicate a toppy stock, although it can bounce off the bottom of the pattern formation.

MS is forming a rounding top pattern coming off a wide gap following a flag pattern. A rounding top is traditionally considered a bearish reversal pattern (though it can sometimes do the opposite and bounce at the bottom of the formation, so watch out). If it breaks below $128, the bottom of the formation, it’s likely to find support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line or the most recent swing high point at $120.

Some traders might see this as a shorting opportunity (below $128), while others may see it as a buying opportunity (at $120, for instance). Whatever you decide might be the better way to go, it’s important to consider a few other mixed signals:

The stock’s technical strength, as measured by the StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) line, is favorably bullish at 84, indicating that the current weakness might be setting up for a minor pullback. A break below 70 would indicate technical weakness.The CMF indicates that selling pressure dominates the stock’s momentum, indicating the possibility that the stock’s reversal may be more than a mere “breather.”

Whether MS is poised for a minor pullback or a larger reversal, you’ll gain clarity once the price reacts to the key levels, allowing you to make your move.

These are just a few examples of many stocks you might have found using the MarketCarpets’ Up Days – Down Days tool. Try it out yourself and create a ChartList with your top 5 to 10 stocks. This will help you track their performance and identify trading opportunities over time.

At the Close

Incorporating MarketCarpets into your daily trading routine can significantly enhance your ability to find trading opportunities at a near glance. The Up Days – Down Days indicator, in particular, offers valuable insights into consistency in near-term price trends, helping you focus on stocks with sustained upward or downward movements. Make this tool a part of your routine, and build a ChartList to monitor the stocks you find.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe uses long-term views of the S&P 500 to explain how the market is positioned as we move into 2025. He uses Yearly and Quarterly Candles and describes why there is a risk of a pullback next year, and he also covers the recent strength in some of the Mag7 stocks. He presents some attractive new emerging base breakouts that are developing, and then goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including DKNG, SONY, and more.

This video was originally published on December 4, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

When it comes to the stock market, each day is unique. As a result, it’s easy to get distracted and look from one area to another based on whims, which can leave you confused and unable to make any decisions — thus putting you in the dreaded state of analysis paralysis. And while going down that rabbit hole, you’d have missed out on several investing opportunities such as the one identified in this article—Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM).

Start With a Big Picture View

Here’s an example of how you can view the big picture of the stock market and narrow down your choices to one or two stocks or exchange traded funds (ETFs) to add to your portfolio.

When the stock market opens, a quick sweep of the Market Summary page gives you an idea of which areas of the market are up or down. On Wednesday, technology stocks were trading higher, as were precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Volatility was still low, and several market breadth indicators suggest that breadth is expanding. Overall, investor sentiment was bullish.

Identify the Leading Sector

Given that technology stocks were the leaders on Wednesday morning, I viewed the daily chart of the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK). Sure enough, XLK gapped up and was at an all-time high.

FIGURE 1: DAILY CHART OF TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF (XLK) A series of higher highs and trading higher than the November 7 close indicates that this sector is trending upward.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Since its August low, XLK has been trending higher with a series of higher lows and higher highs. It has also surpassed its November 7 close of 234.86. Digging deeper into Technology sector using the Sector Summary tool, it was clear that the main reason for the gap up in XLK was due to the earnings report from Salesforce.com after Tuesday’s close.

How to Trade CRM Using Options

The daily CRM chart below shows that the stock had its ups and downs. However, since November 7, when the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score crossed above 70 (top panel), CRM’s stock price has been trending higher, although in a volatile fashion.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SALESFORCE STOCK (CRM). The stock is trending higher and is above its 21-day exponential moving average, the SCTR score is at 94.4, and the RSI has crossed above 70.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

CRM’s stock price has held on to the support of its 21-day exponential moving average. The relative strength index (RSI) has also crossed above 70, indicating the stock is gaining strength. Overall, the stock looks like a potential buy, but with the stock trading at around $360, it’s a little steep to own a significant number of shares.

An alternative is to trade options on CRM. Using the OptionsStrategy tool, I identified an optimal options strategy. Give it a try using the following steps:

Below the chart of CRM, in the left menu bar, select Options (under Tools & Resources).Click the OptionsPlay button that’s above the options chain table.Since my bias is bullish, I look for strategies that fall under the bullish category.

In the screengrab below, you can see the difference in the cost of buying 100 shares of CRM vs. buying the call vertical spread. Both have a bullish OptionsPlay score, but the vertical spread costs much less. Let’s explore putting on a call vertical spread in CRM. A call vertical spread is when you buy and sell two call options that have the same expiration date and different strike prices.

FIGURE 3. OPTIMAL OPTIONS STRATEGIES FOR CRM. The call vertical spread presents the better risk/reward tradeoff. Plus you’d end up paying less than purchasing 100 shares of CRM.Image source: OptionsPlay Strategy Center in StockCharts.com.

Click the icon at the top right of the call spread card (expand button). This shows more trade details, such as the target price, expected profit, and expected return. The Strategy & Greeks tab explains the strategy.

FIGURE 4. STRATEGY DETAILS OF THE CALL VERTICAL SPREAD. Here, you see the max reward, max risk probability of profit, and other details. The Strategy & Greeks tab provides a summary of the strategy.Image source: OptionsPlay Strategy Center in StockCharts.com.

If you’re going to place the trade, it helps to take screenshots of these different tabs, so you know when you’ve hit your max profit.

Putting On an Options Position

All this looks favorable, so I’ll click the Trade button, copy the trade to my broker’s platform, and wait patiently for the next 44 days. In the meantime, I have my trade details saved so if I reach my expected profit, I’ll close the position.

You can’t expect things to work out as expected. Things change, and if the trade goes south, I’ll have to decide whether to roll the position to a future date or take the loss.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

When going through your morning trading routine, you’re likely to tune into the news for unfolding events, run technical scans, check sentiment and breadth indicators, and utilize any other tool that can provide a snapshot of what’s going on “now” before or during the market’s opening hours. After all, each day presents something new.

But what if a stock makes headlines for an unusually massive jump due to a significant news event? How might you go about assessing the favorability of that stock amid a rush of stampeding bulls? That was the case Monday morning with Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI).

On Monday morning, December 2, SMCI claimed the top position in StockCharts’ Market Movers tool, featured on the Dashboard. The ranking highlighted SMCI as the most actively traded stock across the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, as illustrated below.

FIGURE 1. MARKET MOVERS PANEL FOR NASDAQ ON DECEMBER 2. SMCI was the most actively traded stock in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Can SMCI Stock Recover After Its 85% Plunge?

Typically, when analyzing a stock that’s performing relatively well, you’d compare it to a benchmark like the broader market (S&P 500) or its sector, checking various breadth indicators to see how the stock and its benchmarks are performing.

SMCI’s dramatic underperformance renders traditional comparisons to benchmarks unnecessary. Yes, it was that bad. Once a high-flying AI stock, SMCI made headlines after plummeting 85% just weeks ago amid concerns over its financial integrity. While this event grabbed attention, the stock has been on a steady downward trend since the start of the year.

Despite this, on Monday, shares jumped about 29% after a special committee reaffirmed that there was “no evidence of misconduct” by the company. This was enough to ease investor fears despite the risks that might still weigh on the stock. Given the dramatic surge, the news likely spurred many bullish investors to seize the opportunity, betting on a rebound at “bargain basement” prices.

However, “not so fast,” as a daily chart of SMCI would indicate.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMCI. The day’s impressive surge may not look so optimistic when viewed from a larger context.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Look at the volume spike coinciding with Monday’s price surge (magenta rectangle). Both may be slightly notable relative to previous sessions. In the bigger picture, though, it’s not a remarkable event. What stands out, however, is the resistance level near $50 (indicated by the blue dotted line) and the Stochastic Oscillator‘s “overbought” reading (marked by the magenta circle), suggesting that momentum may soon slow. In short, watch what the price does at that level.

But let’s suppose that the current reversal eventually sustains itself and breaks above resistance at $50. The next step would be identifying potential price targets or reversal points ahead. Additionally, it’s important to monitor key longer-term indicators for further confirmation.

How to Trade SMCI Stock: Entry/Exit Points and Price Targets

Let’s switch over to a weekly chart.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI. The significance of historical volume is quite telling in this chart. The $20 and $90 price ranges have seen the highest trading volumes.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the price breaks above the immediate resistance level at $50, the next key levels to monitor are $65, $95, and $120 (its all-time high). These levels, indicated by dashed blue lines, could serve as potential points for profit-taking, resistance, or reversals, depending on the broader technical and fundamental context. In short, these are your potential price targets. A break above $50 would make for a favorable entry point, and a good stop-loss level would be at $41, marked by the magenta dotted line, as it served as support from September through October.

A key indicator to watch if price breaks above $50 is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). Ideally, you would want to see the CMF rise above the zero-line, as it would indicate that buyers are taking control of the stock, suggesting volume-driven buying pressure that might be adequate enough to lift the stock higher. If SMCI falls before breaking above $50, what’s the likelihood of another bounce at $20, forming a double bottom?

While SMCI’s bounce is a foggy mix of fundamental speculation, leading SMCI bulls to trade technically until more definitive information on the company’s prospects becomes clearer, the Volume-by-Price indicator offers some valuable insight. A Volume-by-Price analysis suggests that the $20 and $90 price ranges have experienced the highest trading volumes. This means that these ranges might serve as significant support and resistance levels, respectively, due to heavy trading concentrated at these prices. So, if SMCI’s price declines, it is likely to find support once again at the $20 level.

At the Close

SMCI’s dramatic 29% rebound drew much attention, but you should approach such euphoria cautiously, tempering the optimism with technical reality. The Market Movers tool is useful for drawing attention to stocks experiencing the highest levels of trading volume and the biggest percentage gainers and decliners. But just because you see a bull rush doesn’t mean you should immediately jump into the fray. Watch the key levels discussed above and if SMCI signals an entry, set your sights on the targets and set your stops as well. If SMCI trends higher, consider trailing your stops higher to reduce your losses or ensure your profits.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive video, Julius analyzes the completed monthly charts for November and assesses the long-term trends for all sectors. What we can expect for the coming month of December based on seasonality? With the technology sector under pressure, an interesting opportunity appears to be arising in Financials.

This video was originally published on December 2, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

In this video, Dave reflects on the shape of the yield curve during previous bull and bear cycles with the help of StockCharts’ Dynamic Yield Curve tool. He shares insights on interest rates as investors prepare for the final Fed meeting of 2024, and shares two additional charts he’ll be watching to evaluate market conditions going into 2025.

This video originally premiered on December 2, 2024. Watch on our dedicated David Keller page on StockCharts TV!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

In this video, Tony shows how he starts his week with a clear technical and fundamental perspective of the stocks he’s likely going to enter, and of options positions throughout the week, and how you can apply that yourself. Tony shares bullish (NVDA, DIS, SHOP) and bearish (AAPL, CAT, ADI) options ideas.

This video premiered on December 2, 2024.

On Friday our short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) turned down even after a rally. This is an attention flag that we shouldn’t ignore, but what do the intermediate-term indicators tell us? Are they confirming these short-term tops?

Carl goes through the DP Signal tables to start the program and follows this up with a complete market review that includes a discussion on recently topping STOs.

After going through the market in general including Bitcoin, Gold, Yields, Bonds and Crude Oil among others, Carl then analyzes the Magnificent Seven in the short and intermediate terms.

Erin starts here Sector Rotation discussion with the decline in the Energy sector which could be picking up steam. She discusses the current setup on defensive sectors versus aggressive sectors like Technology.

When she finished sector rotation, she talked about the cooling of the rallies in small- and mid-caps.

Symbol requests round out the discussion. Erin covers not only the daily charts of requested symbols, she also covers the weekly charts to give us a more intermediate-term perspective.

Don’t miss out on our free two week trial of any of our subscriptions! Just use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout! Subscriber HERE: https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

01:33 DP Signal Tables

04:53 Market Overview and Discussion of STOs

13:12 Magnificent Seven

19:40 Sector Rotation

25:45 Analysis of Small- and Mid-Caps

33:42 Symbol Requests

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules